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China Hongxing: Bottoming?

Saturday, July 3, 2010

In an earlier analysis on 14 March, I mentioned that "A broader head and shoulders pattern which stretched over a duration of about nine months is now quite obvious.  This, coupled with the obvious downtrend of all the moving averages suggest that more downside is on the cards.  Accumulating at supports in an uptrend is a good idea.  Accumulating at supports in a downtrend is a different story as supports could quickly become resistance.

"Using Fibo lines, we see that 14.5c is a 123.6% support.  Unless there is an upmove with meaningful volume in the near future, a test of the 138.2% Fibo support is most likely and that is at 13c.  Thereafter, the 150% Fibo support is at 12c. Further downside cannot be discounted as a valid head and shoulders pattern would see the ultimate downside target somewhere at 10c

Although 11.5c is now a many times tested support since 24 May, is it the bottom or just a floor?  On 15 Jun, volume expanded as the 20dMA resistance at 12c was taken out. The following session saw a follow through that tested the resistance provided by the 50dMA at 13.5c. The euphoria was short lived as the 50dMA proved too strong to be taken out and price has been pushed down since.  The 20dMA is once again resistance at 12c and, in the last session, a gravestone doji was formed as price closed once more at 11.5c.

A very interesting fact is found in the OBV.  Although the price is clearly in a downtrend, OBV is flattish. This suggests a lack of heavy distribution. Also, as price fell, volume has generally declined with the exception of one or two sessions. These observations suggest that most of the sellers are probably done selling by now.

The 20dMA has flattened which suggests that the short term downtrend has halted. However the longer term MAs are still declining. So, the trend is still down. However, if we look at the MACD, it has formed a higher low and has recently flattened.  Despite being in negative territory, this positive divergence between price and MACD is an indicator that the downtrend is losing strength.

Should we jump back in and go long here?  Looking at the momentum oscillators, we see that the MFI is down both over the shorter term as well as the longer term. This suggests a lack of demand.  The RSI shows the same picture which suggests a sustained momentum in the decline in price. These indicators are not spotting any positive divergence with price.

So, the conclusion is that although the speed of decline has slowed and the counter seems to have found a stronger support at 11.5c, the trend is still down and the momentum is negative. The price action of this counter has proven treacherous before and unless there is a clear sign of bottoming, I would avoid going long.  Any long position taken here should be a smallish hedge and nothing more.

Related post:
China Hongxing: Downside target?


la papillion said...

Hi AK,

EEeee, Ass-shares...I've quite enough of them :)

AK71 said...

Hi LP,

Yes, staying clear of anything suspicious is usually the safer thing to do. S-chips especially? ;-p

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