Back in Singapore and China Hongxing.

I am back from a short holiday. Feeling somewhat exhausted. Probably got much more sun and walking than I am used to in Singapore but I guess it is not a bad thing. If you are wondering where did I go, I went on a cruise with my parents on the Star Virgo. Very enjoyable, as usual, but the internet connection sucks.

The internet connection on the ship is via satellite and it took 5 minutes to load a page! The service was charged at 23c per minute. So, imagine how costly it would be if I were to log on for an hour and, of course, would get to see about 12 pages only! Anyway, I am back at home now and thankful for my ADSL modem.

I am blogging about China Hongxing simply because I received two comments on this counter while I was away. I am not vested.

The wickless white candle formed on 7 Jan was very bullish but there was no follow through and on 10 Jan (Monday), a doji was formed on the back of high volume, signalling indecision. However, the fact that price did not fall below the immediate support provided by the 100dMA at 17.5c  was encouraging. The bears did not win the battle.

In the following two sessions, dragonfly dojis were formed on low volume. Both bulls and bears are being cautious. So, good time to go long? Well, the higher lows on the MACD, MFI and RSI are obvious. There is positive momentum. RSI is overbought but that could stay overbought for a while more especially as we do not see the MFI in overbought territory. Look at the OBV and we do not see any distribution.

In case price breaks immediate support at 17.5c, a longer term and stronger support is at 15.5c. This is where the rising 200dMA is approximating and it is also where the trendline support is found. 15.5c could provide a much nicer entry level for long only traders. Of course, a further strengthening in price could still see 20c tested.

Related post:
China Hongxing: Eyeing 20c.

China Hongxing: Eyeing 20c.

One blog post for the road. :)

I have not had much luck with China Hongxing, having lost some money trading this counter twice in the last few months. I am no longer vested and it seems that things are looking up for this counter. In the last session, China Hongxing broke resistance at 17.5c. This was after closing above the 17c neckline of what is now clearly a double bottom formation on 4 January.

The OBV shows gradual accumulation while the momentum oscillators are all rising. The MACD is rising in positive territory, indicating the return of positive momentum. A higher low on the MFI as it continues to rise suggests firm demand although the RSI has risen into overbought territory. Continuing upmove in price with higher volume could see it test resistance at 20c eventually while 17.5 is immediate support in case of a pull back. Good luck to all who are vested.

China Hongxing, Healthway Medical, Sabana REIT and First REIT.

I was wondering whether to take a break from blogging tonight but once I switched on my computer, I just had to check my blog. Before I knew it, I was blogging. This is a most serious addiction.


China Hongxing: Last night, "Closing at 17c is resistance provided by the falling 50dMA which just completed a dead cross with the rising 100dMA recently. Technically, China Hongxing has just broken out of its downtrend but it remains to be seen if 17c resistance could be turned into support. Falling back under 17c would mean that the downtrend is still intact." 

So, 17c is still resistance and I see strong support at 15.5c. If volume does not expand on the next upmove to push past resistance, the declining 50dMA could well prescribe the next downtrend resistance. However, with the MACD rising towards zero, we could see momentum turning positive. This counter bears watching.

Healthway Medical: Last night, "Price could first retreat to 16c, a many times tested resistance and now possible support, before closing the gap at 15.5c. In case the bearish reversal signals are nullified in the next session, the upside target is still 18.5c."

Its share price closed at 16c today and I fully expect 15.5c to be a strong support, if tested. Both MFI and RSI are retreating from the borders of their overbought regions and we could see them retreating to retest their uptrend support lines. This would mean a further weakening in price and a thinning in volume. I would want to see support holding up nicely before venturing with another long position here. Overly cautious? Perhaps but that's what I would do.

Sabana REIT: Last night, "the white spinning top, a possible reversal signal, formed today on low volume is encouraging. Volume was the lowest since the REIT started trading in late November. OBV also seems to be rising since 7 Dec, suggesting continual if mild accumulation since. Selling pressure has weakened and if 92.5c was ever tested again, it would be a stronger support as market participants would remember it as the price they missed out on to go long. The worst could be over."

Volume expanded nicely as price rose to hit a high of 96.5c before closing at 95.5c. There is some selling pressure as suggested by the upper wick of the white candle. However, selling pressure is much weaker now and OBV suggests that accumulation is ongoing.  For anyone who is thinking of investing in Sabana REIT, it would seem as if things have stabilised. Technically, 94c (the 38.2% Fibo line) and 93.5c (the 23.6% Fibo line) are fairly safe entry prices now.

First REIT: Last night, "What we see today is a textbook example of a bullish harami, a bullish reversal candlestick setup."

We have confirmation of the bullish signals formed yesterday. Buy signal seen on the MACD histogram. Price gapped up, starting the day at 68c, touched a high of 69.5c and closed at 69c. Resistance provided by the 100dMA at 68.5c was taken out with ease. With volume much lower, it suggests that there is a lack of sellers which allowed little buying to push up the price. 68.5c could be resistance turned support. Next resistance level is at 70c.

The rights closed at 17.5c today and for anyone who is thinking of investing in First REIT, buying the rights at 17.5c would make more sense than buying units in First REIT at 69c. There is a 1.5c difference which is a 2.18% savings. If there should be further selling down tomorrow, I would buy more, tomorrow being the last day for the trading of nil-paid rights. 22 Dec is the last day for the acceptance and payment of the rights.

China Hongxing: Breakout.

On 29 Nov, I mentioned that "It pays to remember that 15.5c was itself a strong support which broke and it is where we find the gently declining 200dMA. It could prove a challenge to overcome this resistance level unless volume expands meaningfully on buy ups."

China Hongxing rose to the challenge today as volume expanded, taking out resistance at 15.5c. Closing at 17c is resistance provided by the falling 50dMA which just completed a dead cross with the rising 100dMA recently. Technically, China Hongxing has just broken out of its downtrend but it remains to be seen if 17c resistance could be turned into support. Falling back under 17c would mean that the downtrend is still intact. The jury is still out on this one. However, resistance at 15.5c is now immediate support.

Related post:
China Hongxing: Rebounding.

China Hongxing: Rebounding.

China Hongxing's downtrend is still intact and there is no sign of any positive divergence to suggest that a reversal is at hand. However, price goes down a river of hope and we are seeing a rebound.

Although a white candle was formed today, it was on the back of relatively low volume. The lower highs on the MFI shows declining demand. However, with it and the RSI in negative territories, we could have a respite. I see resistance at 16c in case the rebound continues as that was a support which broke on 22 Nov and could be the near term resistance now.

It pays to remember that 15.5c was itself a strong support which broke and it is where we find the gently declining 200dMA. It could prove a challenge to overcome this resistance level unless volume expands meaningfully on buy ups.

Related post:
China Hongxing: Testing support.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT, Saizen REIT, Genting SP, China Hongxing, Healthway Medical and Golden Agriculture.

There is much talk about the military confrontation in the Korean peninsula which took place today. Could this be the reason why the STI sank 2%? Fear is in the air?

Seoul (The Korea Herald/ANN) - North Korea fired dozens of coastal artillery shells, some of which fell on the South's Yeonpyaong Island near the tense western inter-Korean border, the Joint Chiefs of Staff said Tuesday.

"The North fired dozens of artillery rounds from its Gaemeori western coastal artillery base at 14:34 p.m. In response to the military provocations, we fired back dozens of rounds with K9 self-propelled howitzers," JCS spokesman Col. Lee Bung-woo told reporters.

In the artillery firing, one soldier was killed and four marine solider were seriously injured. The military was trying to evacuate civilians on the island near the border. Several civilians were reported to have suffered injuries.

Read full story here.

STI at new November low, off 1.4%; 3,119 support
Tuesday, 23 November 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

I would keep calm and question how would the events affect my investments. As far as I could see, my investments are relatively unscathed. If there should be some irrational selling down, I could buy more. Let us look at some counters:


AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT
The recent buying up of units in this REIT at 22.5c and 23c evaporated today. On 25 Oct, I mentioned that "A reader asked if I managed to get more at 22c today. No, I didn't. I am waiting at 21.5c." Today, I got what I have been waiting for. My overnight buy queue at 21.5c was filled.

Fundamentally, there is no reason for a weakening of price here. Technically, it could weaken and I decided to wait and it paid off. Now, could it weaken further and I know for a fact that someone in LP's infamous cbox is waiting to buy at 1 bid lower than my purchase price today.

21c looks like a many times tested resistance of an earlier base formation and this could be a strong support if price ever goes that low. I would buy more then. In fact, I am already in the buy queue. The MACD is testing its own trendline support and I would be surprised if price goes much lower.

Related post:
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Accumulation price?

Saizen REIT
This REIT's unit price has been showing some resilience lately which leads me to believe that most of the people who would sell at 15.5c have sold. Despite a rather large sell down of more than 5,000 lots today, unit price remained at 16c. I believe that is a sign of strength.

Looking at the chart, it seems that 16.5c is the upper limit of the Bollinger bands and at 16c, this REIT is trading above all the daily MAs except the 200dMA. I like the rising MACD. All the daily MAs are coming together, bunching together, creating much tension. One day, the spring would have to uncoil.

Genting SP
A friend has money tied up here and I am sure quite a few readers too including someone who wrote recently that he gave up on Saizen REIT and shifted his money into Genting SP instead. On 18 Nov, I mentioned that "If price does not recapture the 50dMA as support, immediate support is at $2 with the next support after that at $1.85."

The support at $2 cracked today and it looked, for a few moments, as if it could just cling on but the bears proved too strong and a wickless black candle was formed as price closed at $1.95 on high volume. $2 could now be resistance. The gap down on 12 Nov was indeed a bad omen.

With the 20dMA turning down and the MACD dipping into negative territory, we could see a further weakening of price here. $1.85 as a support could be tested in due course. Since peaking on 9 Nov, OBV has been in decline which suggests that distribution is ongoing. This could exert further downward pressure on the share price.

Genting Singapore off 2.9%; Support at $1.85
Tuesday, 23 November 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

China Hongxing
The support provided by the 200dMA has been taken out and price closed at 14.5c. If 14.5c fails to hold, we could see support at 13c tested in due course. 13c was the neckline of the double bottom formed in June/July and should be a stronger support.

MFI could be testing its uptrend support soon. RSI and Stochastics are both in oversold region. However, the MACD histogram's buy signal has been negated.  It would be prudent to wait for clearer signs of a reversal before wading into a long position here, especially with the support at 200dMA compromised.

Related post:
China Hongxing: Testing support.

Healthway Medical
Technically, the picture remains largely the same. However, the buy signal on the MACD histogram has been negated. Volume remains low and there was some selling down at 15c, the floor identified earlier.

Immediate resistance is at 15.5c which is also where the 20dMA is approximating. The jury is still out on this one.

Related post:
Healthway Medical: Prime for a rebound?

Golden Agriculture
On 18 Nov, I said "I still see a negative divergence between price and volume. The MACD has completed a bearish crossover with the signal line but being in positive territory, it suggests that the retreat in price could just be a correction. In such a case, we could see price weakening further to 65c, the next major support, if the support at 70c fails to hold up."

Support at 70c was taken out convincingly today. The MACD continues to decline, pulling away below the signal line although still in positive territory. MFI and RSI have been forming lower highs.  All suggest that positive momentum is declining. 65c support could be tested sooner rather than later. Buy at 65c? As a hedge, sure. If 65c breaks, the next support is at 61c.

China Hongxing: Testing support.

China Hongxing's share price has been declining since hitting a high of 22.5c in mid September. The lower highs and lower lows formed since then have created a down trending channel. Today, price touched 15.5c, a strong support level provided by the 200dMA.

Will price decline further? Well, that momentum is negative is quite clear as the MACD is below zero and still declining below the signal line. However, the MACD histogram has turned green which is a buy signal.

However, any upward movement in price is probably a rebound and not a trend reversal. Any rebound could hit the channel resistance and could be capped at 18c or so. Before that, expect resistance at 17c, which is where the declining 20dMA and the rising 100dMA will be approximating soon.

What hints of the possibility of a rebound is the low volume pull back (i.e. as price retreated, volume has generally been reducing). The selling lacks conviction. Looking at the OBV, we do not see any signs of distribution. Stochastics currently in oversold region and looks like it could be upturning next.

Good for a trade? Possibly.

China Hongxing: Testing support.

The last time I blogged about China Hongxing was on 26 Oct. I concluded by saying "The 100dMA has just completed a golden cross with the 200dMA at 16c.  This is likely to be strong support level and would be ideal as an entry to go long on this counter. In the meantime, 17c is immediate support and could be a nice hedge in case price does not test support at 16c." Since then, the rising 100dMA has moved up further and is now providing support at 16.5c which was where price closed today after having touched an intra day low of 16c.

The lowering in price has been accompanied by a lowering in volume. Looking carefully at the MFI and RSI, it seems as if they are forming higher lows of late. A low volume pull back underway? Looking at the OBV, there is no heavy distribution. The overall picture shows that China Hongxing's price might have found a floor. It is hard to say that it has bottomed since the MACD is still declining below the signal line in negative territory.

If 16.5c fails to hold up as immediate support, the next support is at 15.5c as provided by the 200dMA.

Related post:
China Hongxing: Correction.

China Hongxing: Correction.

Recently, a reader asked me what do I think of China Hongxing. I have not done any fundamental analysis of this company, having gone in only once for a trade based on technical analaysis.

Looking at the charts, the 20d and 50d MAs are about to complete a dead cross while the MACD is declining in negative territory.  Momentum is clearly negative.  However, look at the OBV and we would notice that there is no massive distribution.  In fact, a quick look at the trading volume confirms that volume has been dwindling as price declined from the peak formed on 15 September. A low volume pullback is underway, it seems.

The 100dMA has just completed a golden cross with the 200dMA at 16c.  This is likely to be strong support level and would be ideal as an entry to go long on this counter. In the meantime, 17c is immediate support and could be a nice hedge in case price does not test support at 16c.

Related post:
China Hongxing: CD.

China Hongxing: CD.

China Hongxing went CD today and the market rewarded its share price in a most sporting way as it touched a high of 22.5c before closing at 22c. The 19.5c target identified earlier this month is probably resistance turned support at this point.

Volume expanded significantly as price formed an impressive white candle. The OBV turned sharply upwards suggesting strong accumulation.  With volume so high, there could be a follow through. 22c target was based on the 138.2% Fibo line. We could see the 161.8% Fibo line tested next and this is at 23.5c.

Although the sell signal of the previous session as seen in the MACD histogram was negated today, the MFI and RSI are both in overbought territories. So, although price could push higher, this counter is rather overbought and anyone choosing to go long at the current price would have to be very nimble and might have to settle for smaller gains. The risk premium is definitely higher.

Related post:
China Hongxing: New target.

China Hongxing: New target.

Yesterday, when Edmond asked if we should set a higher target for China Hongxing at 22c, I replied "22c is what could be the eventual target if 19.5c is taken out convincingly (ie. volume has to expand significantly as price rises). However, along the way to 22c, there are many minor resistance levels to overcome."

Well, 19.5c was demolished as the price touched a high of 20.5c before closing at 20c today. This was achieved on very high volume. 20.5c was a resistance level that broke in early January.  Based on Fibo lines, it looks like a minor resistance and we could see 22c tested next (138.2% Fibo line). Congratulations, Edmond. :)

OBV is still rising strongly signalling continuing accumulation. The uptrend in the MFI is intact as it formed higher lows.  Demand is still strong.  It is however on the verge of being overbought but this does not really mean anything apart from suggesting that we stay vigilant, especially with such strong underlying momentum.

This is possibly the reason for the breakout:

China Hongxing Sports bags $198m worth of orders from Xiamen trade fair. The order book of RMB 1 billion represented a 12.6% increase as compared to that held in August 2009.
Wednesday, 08 September 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Related post:
China Hongxing: Pushing upwards.

China Hongxing: Pushing upwards.

On 3 Sep, I suggested that China Hongxing might be taking a break with the near term resistance at 18c. Today, volume expanded significantly as the 18c resistance level was demolished.

Momentum oscillators are trending higher, forming higher lows.  The MFI's rise shows strong demand while the OBV's upward climb shows accumulation continuing. The MACD is still rising above the signal line in positive territory and the distance between the two is growing, a sign of strength.

On the flip side, the RSI is going into overbought territory, suggesting that the buying momentum is getting somewhat overdone.  Jumping in at this juncture to go long might be a risky proposition as the immediate upside target identified some time back at 19.5c seems within reach.

If price action starts detaching from the upper Bollinger and if the MACD's distance from the signal line starts narrowing, we could be seeing precursors of a reversal. So, we have to stay cautious and keep our eyes peeled.

Related posts:
China Hongxing: Taking a break.
China Hongxing: Retesting resistance.

China Hongxing: Taking a break?

On 1 Sep, I suggested that the technicals were pretty strong and the immediate target of 19.5c seemed attainable.  In the last two sessions, however, volume shrank as price got stuck between resistance turned support of 17c and what is now the near term resistance at 18c.

The MFI is declining and it could decline further to retest the support line which would approximate 50% soon.  This could happen if the volume simply declines further without the price having to decline below 17c.  This is a likely scenario given a picture of constant accumulation as suggested by a rising OBV.  A slowdown in momentum is good as some weaker holders are weeded out.

In case 17c support is broken, there should be a rather strong support at 16c.  This is a many times tested resistance and should be a strong support, if tested.  16c is also where we would find the rising 20dMA in the next session.

Related post:
China Hongxing: Immediate target in sight?

China Hongxing: Immediate target in sight?

On 27 August, I mentioned that "China Hongxing's volume expanded today as it retested resistance at 17c. Unlike in early August, the technicals are now looking much stronger and China Hongxing's share price could break 17c this time round."  Today, China Hongxing closed at 18c on high volume.

The MACD has completed a bullish crossover in positive territory. The MFI is rising, forming higher lows, suggesting strong demand and it is nowhere near overbought yet. OBV shows no sign of distribution and accumulation is powering ahead. RSI is just peeking into overbought. Overall, the immediate target of 19.5c identified on 27 August seems attainable.

Related post:
China Hongxing: Retesting resistance.

China Hongxing: Retesting resistance.

On 13 August, I suggested that the immediate support was at 14.5c and anyone who bought some in the sessions which saw a low of 14.5c would be laughing to the bank right now.

China Hongxing's volume expanded today as it retested resistance at 17c. Unlike in early August, the technicals are now looking much stronger and China Hongxing's share price could break 17c this time round.

The MACD has turned up and is poised to form a bullish crossover with the signal line in positive territory. Unlike in early August, the MFI is not in overbought territory now and, this coupled with the higher low formed, bodes well for the counter.  Look at the OBV and we see a picture of gradual accumulation.

Overcoming resistance at 17c gives us an immediate target of 19.5c.  Good luck to readers who are vested.

Related post:
Charts in brief: 13 Aug 10 (Part 1).

Charts in brief: 13 Aug 10 (Part 1).

Genting SP: Broke resistance, gapped up and formed a wickless white candle on extremely high volume.  Closing at $1.46, could it go higher next week?  With such strong momentum and a flurry of BUY calls from all the research houses, we could see price going higher.  To any investor who ignored the constant SELL calls from these houses earlier, congratulations!

Citigroup upgrades Genting Singapore (G13.SG) to Buy from Sell, lifts target price to $1.55 from $0.99 after increasing FY10-FY12 earnings estimates by 20%-80% to factor in robust 2Q10 results.
Friday, 13 August 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

China Hongxing: MFI has been declining gently, no longer in overbought territory.  OBV rose today, sign of a return of accumulation activity. Volume expanded significantly as price rose today.  This is promising. Closing at 15.5c shows that the declining 200dMA is still acting as resistance. Could the rising 20dMA push the price beyond the 200dMA? Immediate support at 14.5c and immediate resistance at 16c.

Hock Lian Seng: OBV shows a trend of consistent accumulation since 21 July.  This company has strong fundamentals and, technically, the immediate support is at 28.5c, provided by the 100dMA. The rising 20dMA is on track to form a golden cross with the 100dMA soon.  This would probably strengthen the support at 28.5c. Price seems to be forming steps upwards and this reminds me of HWT's chart once upon a time.  The recent uptrend is defined by the rising 20dMA.  Could the 20dMA push price higher? Possibly. Bugbear is the falling volume.

Hock Lian Seng Holdings, the civil engineer and a building materials supplier, says it posted a 61.9% y-o-y increase in net profit attributable to shareholders to $15.2 million in 1H2010 from $9.4 million in 1H2009.
Friday, 13 August 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

China Hongxing: Resistance broken.

Against the odds, China Hongxing broke the resistance provided by the 200dMA at 16c.  It touched a high of 17c before closing at 16.5c.

The sell signal on the MACD spotted in the last session is now negated as volume expanded today with the move up in price. MFI and RSI rose and stayed in the overbought region.  OBV rose higher which suggests increased accumulation. 

I look at the weekly chart for a glimpse of the longer term picture. The MFI, RSI and OBV are all rising.  MFI and RSI are not overbought yet. The MACD is still rising but in negative territory and its distance from the signal line is increasing. 

The bullish crossover with the signal line was completed five weeks ago.  Being in negative territory, this could just be a rebound but a strong one.  The increasing distance from the signal line is bullish but as the distance widens, bulls should turn cautious as the last four weeks have seen some big moves upwards.

The descending 100wMA is at 17.5c in the next session and this could be a formidable resistance.

STI climbs 1.3% to 3,025.04 at closing. Shares on the measure trade at 14.7 times estimated earnings, compared with about 17.5 times at the beginning of the year, according to Bloomberg data.
Monday, 02 August 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

China Hongxing: Going higher?

China Hongxing breached 16c resistance and touched 16.5c briefly.  Closing at 16c, it is still resisted by the declining 200dMA.  This is a long term MA and unless volume expands significantly with any upmove, a breakout from the 200dMA is unlikely to be successful.

If we look at the volume, it has been declining as price tried to move higher in the last few sessions. Although not significantly so, it is nonetheless a negative divergence and calls for caution.

OBV is still rising strongly which means accumulation is still ongoing.  MFI and RSI have both risen high into overbought territories. Momentum is still positive but the risk of a pull back is definitely higher now.

Taking some profits off the table would seem like a prudent thing to do and if price goes parabolic in the next session, I would divest more as parabolas are usually unsustainable.

Related post:
China Hongxing: Target hit.

China Hongxing: Target hit.

On 24 June, I wrote "With momentum oscillators turning up strongly, we could possibly see 16c tested." Today, China Hongxing hit the breakout target of 16c.  What next?

The OBV shows a sharp increase in accumulation.  No distribution is taking place yet, it seems.  However, MFI and RSI have both pushed into overbought territories. Also, notice the negative divergence between price and volume. A pull back in the near future is not unrealistic. Immediate support is at 14.5c followed by a stronger support at 13.5c. Remember, it's all about probabilities.

What would I do? I would lock in some gains. If I were to stay vested, it would be with a smaller position at this point in time. Congratulations to anyone who made money from this and if you see fit to contribute to my pocket money fund, thank you too. ;)

Related post:
China Hongxing: Breakout.

China Hongxing: Breakout.

The last time I wrote about China Hongxing was on 3 July. At that time, there were still mixed signals.

On Thursday, two sessions ago, there was a buy signal on the MACD histogram and the MFI broke out of its downtrend. Volume expanded 10 times in the last session as price hit a high of 14.5c.  With this, China Hongxing broke out of multiple resistance levels and confirmed the buy signal on the MACD histogram. 11.5c has been established as the bottom while the next resistance is at 16c, as provided by the 200dMA. With momentum oscillators turning up strongly, we could possibly see 16c tested.  Congratulations to those who took the risk to buy some earlier on but bear in mind that it is still trading below the 200dMA and that the longer term trend is still down.

Related post:
China Hongxing: Bottoming?