STI up 1.8%: Out of the woods?

The STI closed 1.8% higher and recaptured the 3,000 points support. Whether 3,000 points is now support once more, actually, needs confirmation. It is too early to say that we are out of the woods.

As most of my investments in the stock market are not index linked counters, I am not too bothered by the STI apart from the possible spillover effects it could create.

1. AIMS AMP Capital Industrial Trust: My buy queue at 20c was not filled. I am continuing the buy queue at 20c for next Monday. Although price closed at 20c today, most of the 8,840 lots transacted today were Buy Ups at 20.5c, 6,913 lots to be exact. 20c is a very strong support both technically and fundamentally.

2. Cache Logistics Trust: I am still waiting to buy this at 92.5c. It did touch 92.5c recently but my Buy order was not filled. So, am I going to buy at a higher price? Nope. I will continue to wait at 92.5c since technical weakness is still apparent.

3. CapitaMalls Asia: Closed 1c higher. Technically very weak. See if it captures support at $1.83. The counter closed at $1.77.

4. First REIT: For anyone who is seeking exposure or increasing the weight of his long exposure to this REIT, 72c support has held up and could be a fairly safe entry. However, if 72c breaks, the next support is at 69c. If a possible 3c paper loss is acceptable, why not?

5. Genting SP: Similar to CapitaMalls Asia, this counter must capture its previous support in order to set investors' minds at ease. That would be at $2.00. The counter closed at $1.95.


6. Golden Agriculture: Regained support at 63.5c. This needs confirmation in the next session but it is a shot in the arm for investors. Closing below support recently could just be a whipsaw.

7. Healthway Medical: Closed at 14c which was support. This could now be resistance. Technically and fundamentally weak, I would only go long on this counter for quick trades for now which is what I have done before.



8. Saizen REIT: Buy ups at 16c happening. 15.5c remains a very strong support, technically, and is a fairly safe entry price for any interested investor.

9. ASTI: I increased my long position and I shared this on Twitter yesterday. EPS: 2.6c. NAV: 18c/share. Dividend: 0.7c/share. I bought more at 10c/share. It was my only "update" yesterday in my blog. If you are not following me on Twitter yet, you might want to do so for my short "blogs".

OK, hungry for dinner now after an afternoon nap, recovering from hours on the beach. Have a wonderful weekend! :)

STI climbs 1.8% to 3,025.16 at closing
Friday, 25 February 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

Genting SP: Is the uptrend still intact?

I have heard so many accounts of people who went into Genting SP as it was forming new highs in the last three months of 2010 because they did not want to miss out on the action. Here, in my blog, a reader mentioned that he went into Genting SP as well as he saw his friends making so much money from the stock. I hope that most of these people were nimble enough to make some money and close their positions. I said "most" and not "all". This is being optimistic, I am sure.

On 18 November 2010, I sounded an alarm, "The negative divergence between price and the MACD is playing out. With the MACD approaching zero, momentum could quickly turn negative as the lower highs on the RSI suggest weakening buying momentum. If price does not recapture the 50dMA as support, immediate support is at $2 with the next support after that at $1.85."

Also, in my various blog posts regarding Genting SP in the last few months, I kept hinting of further downward movement and I kept mentioning $1.85 as a likely downside target. Is this really going to happen? No one can say for sure but the downward bias is quite obvious.

For anyone who has long position using leverage of some form, this could be a worrisome scenario. A fall from the current $2.07 to $1.85 is a 10% decline. Quite substantial. For those who are vested at higher prices, it could be doubly worse.

These are the support levels to watch:
$2.04 - Short term candlestick support.
$2.00 - Low of 31 January 2011.
$1.92 - Low of 24 November 2010.
$1.85 - Likely downside target.

Remember that these are the supports which I have identified. It does not mean that they would definitely be tested. The question to ask is what would you do if these supports held up or if they were breached?

If you believe the analysis by AmFraser (appended at the end of this blog post) that the uptrend is intact, buying at supports in an uptrend is the way to go. If we look at where the 200dEMA is, the uptrend is intact. However, the 200dEMA is a long term MA. So, we should say that the longer term uptrend is intact but the fall to that long term MA is quite a distance.


Related post:
Genting SP: Bearish engulfing candle.

AmFraser analyst Najeeb Jarhom says recent downward pressure on Genting Singapore (G13.SG) “should not endanger” the stock’s recent uptrend so long as the price holds above the key $1.84-$1.92 breakout points. 
Tuesday, 08 February 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

Genting SP: Bearish engulfing candle.

A really bad day for Genting SP as price action formed a bearish engulfing candle. Price started the day at $2.15 and closed at $2.06. What is worrisome for long holders here is the fact that volume expanded quite a lot on a black candle day. In fact, it is the highest since 3 December 2010.

The confluence of 20d, 50d and 100d MAs at $2.13 could well be the immediate resistance now while trendline resistance is at $2.19. Immediate support is at $2.00 which is followed by $1.92, $1.85 and $1.78 which is provided by the rising 200dEMA. So, is Genting SP's share price going to crash? Who knows but let us take a look at the weekly chart for a look at the longer term picture.

Bollinger bands are squeezing for an imminent change in direction after a period of low volatility, it seems. The MACD completed a bearish crossover with the signal line in late November 2010 and has been in decline since. The OBV suggests that distribution has been going on since the middle of September 2011. Both MFI and RSI show a decline in momentum. Through all these, volume has been declining. However, if today's volume were to be replicated through the rest of the week, volume would be very high this week.

Things look precarious. Let us see what Lady Luck has in store for Genting SP.

Genting Bhd., a Malaysian casino group, fell the most in two weeks after Citigroup Inc. cut its revenue forecast for the company’s Singapore unit to reflect a possible drop in gaming volume at Resorts World Sentosa.
Monday, 07 February 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

Related post:
Genting SP: A rebound or a reversal?

Genting SP: A rebound or a reversal?

Although I do not have any vested interest in Genting SP, I remain deeply interested in this highly liquid, highly volatile counter.

On 24 Nov, I mentioned that "We could see a rebound and if it does happen, resistance is at $2.10 which is where we find the 50dMA. Anyone who is thinking of reducing exposure could consider doing so here. After all, price goes down a river of hope and rarely in a straight line." In the last session, Genting SP closed at $2.09 after touching a high of $2.13.

The volume which accompanied the rise in price was not impressive. With the 20dMA poised to form a dead cross with the 50dMA, there could be more downward pressure.  The white candle formed was with a long upper wick which suggests selling pressure beyond $2.09. The MACD has turned up but it is doing so in negative territory which suggests that what we have is just a rebound and not a reversal.

I have also drawn lines in orange color connecting the highs of 20 Sep and 9 Nov as well as the lows of 30 Sep and 10 Nov. Do you see a rising wedge? It seems that this pattern is valid and the downside target is at least $1.85. Of course, if the next session sees an expansion of volume as price rises up, this reading would be invalidated.

MBLM, Genting SP and Healthway Medical.

Walked a lot this evening after having dinner with a friend at MBLM. Yes, it is my new favourite mall.  So quiet, cool, clean and the service staff are all so friendly. Again, I was given free parking for 4 hours and so, I took a walk to MBS and, boy, that place was a ghost town.  Salespeople were looking at me expectantly as I walked past some of the shops. I felt bad almost for just being there.

Now, my legs have a nice mildly aching feeling from so much walking and I am feeling very sleepy. So, just a short post tonight before I hit the sack.

Genting SP
Formed a short white candle today. We could see a rebound and if it does happen, resistance is at $2.10 which is where we find the 50dMA. Anyone who is thinking of reducing exposure could consider doing so here. After all, price goes down a river of hope and rarely in a straight line.

With the 20dMA turning down and seemingly set to do a dead cross with the 50dMA, there could be more downside to come. After all, the momentum oscillators are downtrending but being oversold or bordering on oversold, we could see the formation of a floor. This floor could be at $1.85 if price resumes its downward trajectory.

Healthway Medical
In my blog post last night, I mentioned that the jury is still out on this one. The positive divergence I saw a couple of days ago is still in play.

The MACD histogram has turned green again. There is a struggle going on but with the MFI and RSI going generally higher, momentum has turned up. Even the OBV has turned up today, suggesting an increase in accumulation activity. If a rebound happens, first resistance is at 16.5c, the neckline of a potential double bottom formation, with an eventual target at 18c if the double bottom pattern is valid.

This short blog post has taken me longer than usual to complete: 50 minutes! My brain is working at 50% this evening. Good night and good luck!

Related post:
Tea with AK71: A day at MBLM.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT, Saizen REIT, Genting SP, China Hongxing, Healthway Medical and Golden Agriculture.

There is much talk about the military confrontation in the Korean peninsula which took place today. Could this be the reason why the STI sank 2%? Fear is in the air?

Seoul (The Korea Herald/ANN) - North Korea fired dozens of coastal artillery shells, some of which fell on the South's Yeonpyaong Island near the tense western inter-Korean border, the Joint Chiefs of Staff said Tuesday.

"The North fired dozens of artillery rounds from its Gaemeori western coastal artillery base at 14:34 p.m. In response to the military provocations, we fired back dozens of rounds with K9 self-propelled howitzers," JCS spokesman Col. Lee Bung-woo told reporters.

In the artillery firing, one soldier was killed and four marine solider were seriously injured. The military was trying to evacuate civilians on the island near the border. Several civilians were reported to have suffered injuries.

Read full story here.

STI at new November low, off 1.4%; 3,119 support
Tuesday, 23 November 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

I would keep calm and question how would the events affect my investments. As far as I could see, my investments are relatively unscathed. If there should be some irrational selling down, I could buy more. Let us look at some counters:


AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT
The recent buying up of units in this REIT at 22.5c and 23c evaporated today. On 25 Oct, I mentioned that "A reader asked if I managed to get more at 22c today. No, I didn't. I am waiting at 21.5c." Today, I got what I have been waiting for. My overnight buy queue at 21.5c was filled.

Fundamentally, there is no reason for a weakening of price here. Technically, it could weaken and I decided to wait and it paid off. Now, could it weaken further and I know for a fact that someone in LP's infamous cbox is waiting to buy at 1 bid lower than my purchase price today.

21c looks like a many times tested resistance of an earlier base formation and this could be a strong support if price ever goes that low. I would buy more then. In fact, I am already in the buy queue. The MACD is testing its own trendline support and I would be surprised if price goes much lower.

Related post:
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Accumulation price?

Saizen REIT
This REIT's unit price has been showing some resilience lately which leads me to believe that most of the people who would sell at 15.5c have sold. Despite a rather large sell down of more than 5,000 lots today, unit price remained at 16c. I believe that is a sign of strength.

Looking at the chart, it seems that 16.5c is the upper limit of the Bollinger bands and at 16c, this REIT is trading above all the daily MAs except the 200dMA. I like the rising MACD. All the daily MAs are coming together, bunching together, creating much tension. One day, the spring would have to uncoil.

Genting SP
A friend has money tied up here and I am sure quite a few readers too including someone who wrote recently that he gave up on Saizen REIT and shifted his money into Genting SP instead. On 18 Nov, I mentioned that "If price does not recapture the 50dMA as support, immediate support is at $2 with the next support after that at $1.85."

The support at $2 cracked today and it looked, for a few moments, as if it could just cling on but the bears proved too strong and a wickless black candle was formed as price closed at $1.95 on high volume. $2 could now be resistance. The gap down on 12 Nov was indeed a bad omen.

With the 20dMA turning down and the MACD dipping into negative territory, we could see a further weakening of price here. $1.85 as a support could be tested in due course. Since peaking on 9 Nov, OBV has been in decline which suggests that distribution is ongoing. This could exert further downward pressure on the share price.

Genting Singapore off 2.9%; Support at $1.85
Tuesday, 23 November 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

China Hongxing
The support provided by the 200dMA has been taken out and price closed at 14.5c. If 14.5c fails to hold, we could see support at 13c tested in due course. 13c was the neckline of the double bottom formed in June/July and should be a stronger support.

MFI could be testing its uptrend support soon. RSI and Stochastics are both in oversold region. However, the MACD histogram's buy signal has been negated.  It would be prudent to wait for clearer signs of a reversal before wading into a long position here, especially with the support at 200dMA compromised.

Related post:
China Hongxing: Testing support.

Healthway Medical
Technically, the picture remains largely the same. However, the buy signal on the MACD histogram has been negated. Volume remains low and there was some selling down at 15c, the floor identified earlier.

Immediate resistance is at 15.5c which is also where the 20dMA is approximating. The jury is still out on this one.

Related post:
Healthway Medical: Prime for a rebound?

Golden Agriculture
On 18 Nov, I said "I still see a negative divergence between price and volume. The MACD has completed a bearish crossover with the signal line but being in positive territory, it suggests that the retreat in price could just be a correction. In such a case, we could see price weakening further to 65c, the next major support, if the support at 70c fails to hold up."

Support at 70c was taken out convincingly today. The MACD continues to decline, pulling away below the signal line although still in positive territory. MFI and RSI have been forming lower highs.  All suggest that positive momentum is declining. 65c support could be tested sooner rather than later. Buy at 65c? As a hedge, sure. If 65c breaks, the next support is at 61c.

Golden Agri, Kencana Agri, Healthway Medical and Genting SP.

On 12 Nov, I mentioned that Golden Agriculture could see its support at 70c tested sooner than later. That support was tested today. Its share price bounced off the support and closed at 72c, ending the session 1c lower.

I still see a negative divergence between price and volume. The MACD has completed a bearish crossover with the signal line but being in positive territory, it suggests that the retreat in price could just be a correction. In such a case, we could see price weakening further to 65c, the next major support, if the support at 70c fails to hold up.

Singapore palm stocks hurt by China price controls. Statement from China’s State Council Wednesday says Beijing will seek to tame rising food, energy prices. “We view the price control guidelines by the Chinese government as short-term negative for CPO prices as they may weaken import demand and prompt traders to liquidate their speculative positions,” says CIMB.     
Thursday, 18 November 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

On 22 Oct, I mentioned that I was wary of Kencana Agriculture because its chart "seems to display classic signs of negative divergence between price and volume, price and MACD, price and MFI as well as price and RSI.  The shorter term 20dMA seems to be flattening."

This picture has hardly changed as its price declined to 42c, the support provided by the 20dMA, on relatively low volume. This was after three attempts to break resistance at 45c without success. I could be wrong but we might be seeing the formation of a rising wedge. If such a pattern is valid, the downside target could be at least 39c, which also seems to be a rather strong support.

On 13 Nov, I mentioned that "With the MACD, MFI and RSI all in their respective downtrends, a retest of the support at 15c is rather likely" for Healthway Medical. The counter ended the session at 15c today. The down channel's support in the next few sessions is probably at 14.5c and we could see this tested if the support at 15c fails. I still feel that 15c is a relatively strong support and if it holds, we could see the formation of a double bottom.

However, with the MACD having completed another bearish crossover with the signal line in negative territory and without any sign of a positive divergence, it could be rather risky to buy in at this stage. The downtrend might have to run its course.

Genting SP's fortunes have taken a turn for the worse. On 12 Nov, I mentioned that "If the price starts at $2.18 or higher in the next session and manages to break resistance at $2.21 which is the 50% Fibo line as well as the 20dMA, we could have a recovery. Having said this, the MACD has been moving lower as price moved higher, presenting an obvious picture of negative divergence. I would treat any rebound as a chance to reduce exposure."

Well, price started at $2.14 in the next session and closed lower, forming a black candle that almost completely engulfed the white spinning top. Closing at $2.05 today, it has gone below the support provided by the 50dMA. The counter had not traded below the 50dMA in many months.

The negative divergence between price and the MACD is playing out. With the MACD approaching zero, momentum could quickly turn negative as the lower highs on the RSI suggest weakening buying momentum. If price does not recapture the 50dMA as support, immediate support is at $2 with the next support after that at $1.85.

Macquarie cuts Genting Singapore to Underperform.  Macquarie downgrades Genting Singapore to Underperform from Neutral; “we believe the current consensus expectations for Genting Singapore are overly aggressive. In our view, they do not capture the risk of competition from Marina Bay Sands, rising political risk and limited impact from junket approvals.”      
Thursday, 18 November 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Related posts:
Saizen REIT, First REIT, Golden Agriculture, Genting SP.
Healthway Medical: 3Q 2010 results.

Saizen REIT, First REIT, Golden Agriculture and Genting SP.

Markets in Asia seemed to have taken the lead from the dismal performance of Wall Street and the STI was no exception as it retreated 1.3%.

STI drops 1.3% to 3,252 at closing
Friday, 12 November 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

So, is this the beginning of the end? I actually find it re-assuring that such a question was making its rounds amongst local investors. It shows that the memory of the last crash is still fresh in the minds of many. Many are actually holding cash and waiting for the next big crash before moving in to cherry pick beaten down stocks.

The market could be perverse and the more we expect something to happen, the more unlikely it becomes. So, people waiting by the sides with chestfuls of cash could be disappointed.

Indeed, there is massive amount of liquidity in the market if the amazing over-subscriptions of GLP and MIT were anything to go by. Money is going where it is treated best. It is not going to be treated best in US Treasuries, for sure. The investments to be in are Asian assets. Asian countries with strong economies and currencies are the ideal investment destinations.

So, unless we have evidence to the contrary, I would say: Do not fear the selldown!  What are we to do then?  Invest in Asian equities (and inflation is here to stay)!

Personally, my portfolio which is primarily investing for income hardly budged in today's selldown. No roller coaster ride for my weak heart. Just dividend collection on a regular basis for me.

With regards to Saizen REIT, a reader sent me an email asking: "Was it your article in your blog that attracts sudden interest in this stock?  The volume is more than ordinary. I wonder." I doubt that my blog has such influence.  Anyway, there were some sessions in the past in which volume was much higher but the interesting thing about today was the number of trades with large buy ups at 16c. There was a total of 14 transactions with a total of 5,419 lots changing hands, of which 12 transactions were at 16c and 5,204 lots were bought up at 16c. 2 transactions were for 1,000 lots each and 1 transaction was for 2,000 lots. Has Saizen REIT caught the attention of some heavy weight investors? Your guess is as good as mine.
See my last blog post on Saizen REIT here.

I have been waiting the whole day for someone to sell me some First REIT units at 95c but to no avail. Some people are puzzled why am I so interested in getting some at 95c when I am already vested at 40+c and 70+c. Well, with the proposed acquisitions and rights issue, buying more even at 96c could be quite rewarding. With an average price of 70c, post rights, if we were able to buy at 95c now, a yield of 9.1% is not impossible with an estimated full year DPU of 6.4c in 2011. As the XR date is 1 Dec which is almost 3 weeks away, I will continue to wait patiently at 95c. Wish me luck.
Read announcement from First REIT here.
Read my last blog post on First REIT here.

Golden Agriculture suffered a downgrade by OCBC and broke its immediate support at 75c, closing at 73c. Just yesterday, I mentioned that "Although Golden Agriculture reported commendable results today with a 41% year on year increase in net profit to US$99 million (S$127 million) for the third quarter ending 30 Sep (3Q2010), the attempt by price to go higher was half hearted as it touched a high of 78.5c before closing at 76c. The very long upper wick on this short bodied white candle hints of strong selling pressure. Volume is relatively low and the negative divergence between price and volume is still all too visible." We could see 70c support tested sooner than later.
Read my last blog post on Golden Agriculture here.

Golden Agri cut to Hold by OCBC; Limited upside
Friday, 12 November 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

The counter on my watchlist that suffered the greatest decline in percentage terms is Genting SP, declining 15c or 6.6% to close at $2.13 after touching a low of $2.07. The question on the minds of anxious investors is whether it would go lower?

The price gapped down to start the day at $2.10 but formed a white spinning top after testing the 50dMA at $2.07 which was the low of the day. A spinning top suggests indecision which is a good thing for bulls on a day with massive selling pressure. If the price starts at $2.18 or higher in the next session and manages to break resistance at $2.21 which is the 50% Fibo line as well as the 20dMA, we could have a recovery. Having said this, the MACD has been moving lower as price moved higher, presenting an obvious picture of negative divergence. I would treat any rebound as a chance to reduce exposure.

Genting Singapore slumps as earnings ‘disappoint’.

Genting yesterday posted third-quarter net income of $187.8 million, compared with $396.5 million in the previous three months and a net loss of $93.3 million a year earlier.

Friday, 12 November 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Genting SP: Bollinger bands narrowing.

The Bollinger bands are narrowing on Genting SP's chart.  This usually precedes a large magnitude price movement. Would it be up or down? Your guess is as good as mine.

Yesterday, I mentioned that "the 20dMA was breached as recently as last week (and) does not inspire confidence that it would be a strong support". Today, price broke under the 20dMA and it seems that $2.02 is now resistance but this needs confirmation. Price could retreat to the recent low at $1.85 which could act as immediate support. If that breaks, we could see the rising 50dMA as the next support.

The MACD continues to decline beneath the signal line in positive territory while the MFI has formed a lower high. The correction is in earnest but overall momentum is still positive.

Related post:
Genting SP: Fatigue.

Genting SP: Fatigue.

Price gapped down today and formed a doji, closing at $2.03. It is quite obvious now that a lower high was formed yesterday and price is being supported by the 20dMA today. That the 20dMA was breached as recently as last week does not inspire confidence that it would be a strong support.

The MACD histogram has turned red, a sell signal, while the MACD continues its decline beneath the signal line in positive territory. The correction has resumed. MFI and RSI both formed lower highs which suggest reduced demand and slowing buying momentum. OBV suggests ongoing distribution.

Unless there is a sudden spike in volume in buying up, the odds are that prices could move lower and the next support, if $2 should break, is at $1.85.  Of course, just as prices do not move up in a straight line, prices would not move down in a straight line either. There is always a river of hope.

Genting SP: 38.2% Fibo.

On 1 Oct, I mentioned that "I feel that a resumption of a downward movement towards the 50dMA is likely and that further upside could be capped by the 38.2% Fibo line at $2.05."

Today, an effort to further advance the rebound in the last session sputtered as price hit a high of $2.10 only to retreat to close to $2.04, 1c lower than the resistance identified at $2.05. A white candle with a long upper wick was formed, suggesting the presence of strong selling pressure as price tried to move higher.

Immediate support is now at $2.00, underpinned by the rising 20dMA, on top of being a many times tested support and resistance level.  Immediate resistance remains at $2.05.


Related post:
Genting SP: A strong rebound.

Genting SP: A strong rebound.

STI increases 1.1% to 3,130.90 at closing. The measure advanced 1.2% this week, its sixth weekly gain. Three stocks rose for each that fell on the 30-member gauge.
Friday, 01 October 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Together with the STI's stellar performance, Genting SP staged a strong rebound.  The MACD histogram turned green, a buy signal but the rise in price was not accompanied by heavy volume.  This suggests that price rebounded on short covering and that it rose because of a lack of sellers and not because of an abundance of buyers.

This rebound was probably a good chance for bulls to reduce exposure. Personally, I feel that a resumption of a downward movement towards the 50dMA is likely and that further upside could be capped by the 38.2% Fibo line at $2.05. However, with an upgrade by OCBC, I wonder which way it would go.  It is a grand tug of war between research houses.

Genting up on short-covering, OCBC upgrade
Friday, 01 October 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Genting SP: An orderly retreat.

No one likes to see his investment plunging in value but anyone who bought some Genting SP's shares towards the end of its run up to $2.18 could be nursing a huge paper loss now, if he did not cut his losses.

On 28 Sep, I mentioned that "we could see more selling pressure in the near term.  If $1.93 gives way, I see the next support level at $1.84, give or take a cent. Strong support should be provided by the rising 50dMA which is currently at $1.60." Today, price action formed a low at $1.85, just a cent shy of $1.84, before closing at $1.86.  That >5m shares were sold down at $1.86 post closing at 5.05pm suggests more downside to come.

The momentum oscillators are firmly downward moving and the OBV shows clear distribution underway.  It would seem that the 50dMA would be called upon as support in due course. What price would that be at?  If I were to hazard a guess, it could be close to $1.70 next week.  That is where we find the lower Bollinger band and it also seems like a natural candlestick support.  Of course, a nice round number is mostly psychologically important.

Do I expect any panic selling? That's a tough one to answer but looking at the volume of trade as the stock was sold down this week, it looks like an orderly retreat to me.  No spike in trade volume.  So, this is perhaps a consolation for shareholders.

Related post:
Genting SP: CEO pares stake.

Genting Singapore off 1.1%; Down 12.8% since peak.
Besides current broad market pullback, shares also bogged down by Macquarie's downgrade to Neutral from Outperform with lower target of $1.75 vs $2.10, citing market's "overly optimistic growth assumptions".

Thursday, 30 September 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Genting SP: CEO pares stake.

Genting SP rocketed to a high of $2.18 on 20 Sep which was also the day when OBV peaked and the MFI formed a higher high.  However, all parties come to an end or at least they need a break.  Genting SP's share price has retraced to support provided by the 20dMA at $1.93.  Will this support level hold? Or will we see more downside?

That the CEO sold down his stake to the tune of 900,000 shares yesterday at $2.047 each does not inspire much confidence in investors. We could see more selling pressure in the near term.  If $1.93 gives way, I see the next support level at $1.84, give or take a cent. Strong support should be provided by the rising 50dMA which is currently at $1.60.

Genting Singapore off 1.5%; CEO Tan Hee Teck’s sale of own shares in open market prompts other investors to follow suit. 
Tuesday, 28 September 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Genting SP: Staying cautious.

The cautious tone in Genting SP continues today. There is talk that speculators have moved from Genting SP to Genting HK, contributing to the latter's spectacular run up in price.

Technically, the negative divergence between price and action here is rather glaring. Price has detached from the upper Bollinger and moved sideways. This could be the start of another consolidation period.  The detachment from the upper Bollinger is accompanied by reducing volume which is a good sign for the bulls.

Look at the MACD and we see it still rising above the signal line in positive territory.  Bulls want to watch out for signs of a bearish crossover with the signal line.

The MFI, although declining, formed a higher high before doing so and is still above the longer term uptrend support. OBV has flatlined in the immediate time frame but its longer term rise is unbroken.  Demand and accumulation seem healthy.

For anyone with a long position here, congratulations but look to the support at $1.70 for guidance.  If this support breaks, it might be a good idea to take some profit off the table as the next support is at $1.50.

Related post:
Genting SP: Flip flop.

Genting Hong Kong +3.6%; Earnings growth priced in: UOB
Monday, 06 September 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

STI climbs 1.1% to 3,034.58 at closing
Monday, 06 September 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Genting SP: Flip flop.

As I was advising caution on Genting SP, some analysts are turning cautious on Genting SP as well, it seems.

Genting Singapore off 1.1%; Gaming demand slows: UOB. UOB KayHian, which has Hold call with $1.59 target, says its own checks show gaming activity at Resorts World Sentosa over July-August points to noticeably weaker 3Q10 vs 2Q10, with traffic in August affected by “hungry ghost” month.
Thursday, 02 September 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Genting Singapore down 2.2%; Overbought: DBS Vickers.
Thursday, 02 September 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Related post:
Genting SP: An amazing run.

Genting SP: An amazing run.

Genting SP has amazed me with its continuing upward move in price. Many punters must have made good money here.  Congratulations!

Volume has expanded for three straight sessions as price pushed higher.  The volume, although higher, is not dramatically so and there is, therefore, a suggestion that price could be rising from a lack of sellers and not because of an abundance of buyers. The MFI has just joined the RSI in overbought territory and the risk of going long at this point in time is surely higher. OBV shows consistent accumulation and it seems that the party could continue for a bit more but when would it come to an end as all parties do? No one knows and I would advise caution.

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Genting SP: Twin spinning tops.

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Wednesday, 01 September 2010

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Genting SP: Twin spinning tops.

No matter how bullish analysts might still be about Genting SP, I believe that taking some profit off the table for anyone who is still vested is the prudent thing to do.  Yes, the MFI is still uptrending and OBV shows accumulation.  However, take note that the RSI is in overbought territory and has formed a lower high.  This suggests that the buying momentum is weakening and being overbought, it has to be corrected in time.

The MACD is still rising above the signal line in positive territory but notice how the distance between the two lines is narrowing. Another cautionary signal could be found in the candlesticks formed.  We have twin spinning tops formed in the last two sessions, a sign of indecision and doubly so.  Indecision in an uptrend?  Doesn't sound positive, does it?  Also, notice the huge decline in volume as the counter tries to hang on to its gains.

Genting SP's price seems to have support at $1.50 but gaps are more often than not filled.  So, we could see price touching $1.46 in case of weakness.  From the chart, it is clear that the top of the base formation could be found at $1.30 and this is also where the rising 50dMA would approximate soon.  In case of a dramatic decline, expect strong support at $1.30, therefore.

Genting SP: Weakness to continue?

On 17 August, I asked "Has Genting SP's sky rocketing price run out of fuel at last?" Price has shown some weakness as it retreated to the short term support of $1.50.  This support was compromised in the last session.  A sell signal on the MACD histogram appeared two sessions ago.  The silver lining is the low volume observed as price weakened.

Lower price and lower trading volume. What does this mean? The momentum oscillator to look at is the MFI. The picture of higher lows on the MFI is still intact. Demand has not crashed. There is no big downswing on the OBV either which suggests a lack of any meaningful distribution.

So, it seems that Genting, thus far, is experiencing a low volume pull back. Time to buy? On 17 August, I suggested $1.30 as a stronger support because it is "a candlestick resistance level which took many sessions to be overcome".  Has the picture changed?

The 20dMA has moved higher up and would provide immediate support in case of a sustained pullback.  It is currently at $1.35 which happens to be the low of 13 Aug.  Traders would remember this day as the day the counter gapped up on high volume. Expecting some support at $1.35, therefore.

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Genting SP: Black candle.

Has Genting SP's sky rocketing price run out of fuel at last? The price action is still above the upper Bollinger band and there is much room to fall in case of a pull back to the 20dMA, currently at $1.30. This is also a candlestick resistance level which took many sessions to be overcome.  This price is therefore psychologically stronger in the minds of market participants and should be a strong support.

Overall, momentum is still positive.  The higher low on the MFI suggests that demand is still intact.  This is despite some distribution taking place as suggested by the OBV turning down.

However, the price has moved up too quickly as suggested by the RSI which is in the overbought territory and this is being corrected.  All signs currently suggest that Genting SP's share price might just be taking a breather.