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Saizen REIT: Golden crosses.

Thursday, January 13, 2011

In technical analysis, some look out for the true golden cross which is the 100dMA crossing the 200dMA, going upwards. This is said to be more significant than the 20dMA or the 50dMA crossing the 200dMA as it signifies longer term strength in a counter's price moving upwards.

For Saizen REIT, the 100dMA seems on track to forming a golden cross with the 200dMA although it could be another couple of weeks before it is clearer. That there has been gradual accumulation since mid November 2010 is quite clear from the OBV. The MFI and RSI are above 50% but not overbought. Price could move higher in a nascent uptrend but it could be quite gradual as well.

Related post:
Saizen REIT (3 Jan 11)


Anonymous said...

Is accumulation at $0.17 a good idea? i have been queuing at $0.165 for quite long but nvr got it.


AK71 said...

Hi Confused,

For me, I am loathed to buy at 17c or higher but it is because I have accumulated at 16.5c and lower over a period of 15 months.

With this counter, it is also difficult to rely on TA as it is mostly thinly traded. For anyone who has yet to be vested and would like to go long, a smallish hedge at 17c might be a good idea but I would not throw in the kitchen sink. ;)

Zelphon said...

You can continue to buy at 0.17 for the 6 mths accumulated dividends...

Otherwise, wait till XD...

But then if the results is good and price continue to climb, too bad for you...

Even at 0.17, Saizen is still severely undervalued...

AK71 said...

Hi Zelphon,

Thanks for sharing your views. :)

I believe that a bigger positive catalyst for this REIT would be the successful refinancing of YK Shintoku's CMBS. This would bump up the DPU slightly.

I am also looking forward to the next income distribution which should take place in March 2011. My expectation is for a DPU of 0.65c or so. :)

Isaac said...

what's the expected div yield for saizen this year?

AK71 said...

Hi Isaac,

Income distribution would depend on, amongst other things:

1. Whether YK Shintoku's CMBS could be refinanced earlier. If refinanced successfully, it would bump up the DPU.

2. How much of the outstanding warrants are exercised.

3. Exchange rate.

The distribution yield would depend on your entry price, of course.

You might want to read the following:

Saizen REIT: AGM on 19 Oct 2010

Saizen REIT:AK71 responds to a forum.

Email exchange with a reader on some REITs.

Saizen REIT: 1QFY2011 results.

Happy reading. :)

Anonymous said...

I highly urge unit-holders to read Saizen REIT monthly newsletter. It is pretty informative about the property financing industry in Japan. Jan's 2011 edition is out already. It is focused on addressing the impact of the falling population in Japan property market.


AK71 said...

Hi Nick,

Thanks for sharing this. :)

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