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Raffles Education: Testing support at 30c.

Wednesday, February 9, 2011

On 31 January, I mentioned "For anyone who wants to go long on this counter, being patient and waiting to buy some at supports in an uptrend is a good idea. I never like chasing. I rather like waiting for things to come to me."

On 7 Feb, Kim Eng upgraded Raffles Education to a BUY with a target price of 40c as the management affirms its plan to venture into property development in China. Raffles Education is leveraging on its low land cost when it acquired OUC back in October 2007. Raffles Education has obtained approval from relevant authorities to convert about 280,000 sqm of land area in OUC for residential development. It is currently in talks with different interested parties to form a joint venture to co‐develop the site. Based on current achievable selling price, management is confident of generating substantial returns.
Read article here.

The upgrade by Kim Eng might have given the share price of the counter a shot in the arm as a white candle was formed that very day. However, price action has turned bearish since, especially with China's move to up interest rates which could lead to a lower investment demand for real estate in the country.
Read blog post on China's interest rate hike here.

Technically, the massive black candlesticks in the last two sessions were on the back of heavier volumes. The MACD has formed a lower high and is declining under the signal line. A correction is clearly underway. OBV shows that distribution is ongoing while the MFI shows a decline in demand with a lower high.

Looking at the weekly chart, it becomes clearer why Raffles Education's share price is having a hard time clearing 32c. That is where we find the 50wEMA. If we connect the lows from the week of 20 Dec, we get a trendline support which intersects the 20wMA at 28c. This is where strong support could be found if support at 30c should break.

The OBV shows that distribution has been going on since the week of 17 Jan while the MFI continues rising, indicating positive momentum in demand. While there is distribution, longer term demand is still positive.  Buying at supports instead of chasing a rising share price is sound advice.

Related post:
Raffles Education: Correction?


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