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Luck plays a part in investing.

Tuesday, September 10, 2013

I would readily admit anytime that luck plays a part in investing and I would also find a businessman who admits some of his success is due to luck to be more believable.

If someone claims that his success is due to his foresight and never luck, good for him but forgive me if I say I do not believe him. 

I am sure we have come across people like this in our lives. 

They are full of confidence and think that they can do no wrong.

Some might find such confidence attractive and gravitate towards such personalities. 

It is quite natural. 

Mind you, I am not saying that it is wrong to do so. 

There must be some reasons other than luck which have contributed to the success these personalities enjoy. 

So, there must be lessons we could learn from them.

The important thing is not to surrender our cognitive abilities and be swept away by emotions. 

They are as human as all of us although some might want us to think otherwise.

The Chinese have a saying:


People could make plans and put them in motion but whether the plans succeed or not depends on the heavens.

Related post:
Motivations and methods in investing.


Anonymous said...

Hi AK71,
i think it's the same as (for believers) the saying:-
"Man proposes, God disposes"
If one really believes the saying, then one knows you can control what you do but you can never control the final outcome.
There are simply too many things you can't forsee.

AK71 said...

Hi temperament,

Most certainly so and thanks to Mike's enlightening comments in my previous blog, I was inspired to pen this blog which addresses many issues I was struggling with lately. :)

My 15HWW said...

Hi AK71,

Are you refering to CMZ?

But really hats off to you for having the courage and belief to buy more at $0.50++.

Indeed, Lady Luck does favour the brave.

AK71 said...

Hi Stoical Keynes,

This blog post looks simple but it can be interpreted on a few levels and from various angles. It shows that I have resolved various issues I was faced with lately.

The episode with China Minzhong was a reason for the struggle I was faced with and it also provided material for the foundation of this blog post. :)

shaowei said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
AK71 said...

Hi shaowei,

Lady Gaga = Lady Luck? Sorry but I am a bit lost here. Or is your first line a verse from one of her songs? I anyhow hamtum. ;p

Anonymous said...

Hey AK,

What a conincidence, I was blogging about luck or should I say lament about the lack of, in my last 2 posts.

We talk about market cycles, u can get the cycle right but still lose money in the short term. To catch everything, 天时right timing, 地利right company, 人和right research by the right person, really need some luck.

Drop by and visit when u are free, will ya. :)

SGYI said...

Hi Ak,

CMZ must have gave you a really wild ride. Luck definitely plays a part in investing. We do our best and hope for the future. No one can predict perfectly what will happen next.

AK71 said...

Hi Mike,

Hey, give me the URL of your blog. We should do a link exchange. :)

AK71 said...

Hi SG Young Investment,

Well, most of the time, it was just hanging in the air. Not much of a ride, actually. Hanging in suspense was more like it. ;p

Anonymous said...

It's Actually, u just click on my name and u will be there. It's not the last 2, it's the one in reflection.

Anyway, glad u are back in action!!

AK71 said...

Hi Mike,

Nice blog! I like. ;)

Just celebrated first birthday not too long ago too. Happy Birthday! :D

shun said...

Hi, AK71,
Pls continue blogging, enjoyed reading ur blogs.

AK71 said...

Hi shun,

Thanks for the encouragement. I guess I will hang around for a bit more since readers have not grown bored with me yet. :)

coven said...

Lucky again with your soundglobal :)

AK71 said...

Hi coven,

Sound Global is a logical beneficiary of the PRC government's increased spending on infrastructural improvements in the country. :)

I have closed my long position in Sound Global with a nice gain. I have removed it from my watch list together with China Minzhong.

I need a break from S-chips. ;p

Anonymous said...

Hi AK,

I drop you another email.Let me know if u didn't received


AK71 said...

Hi Mike,

I saw it and just replied. Thanks! :D

Anonymous said...

Hi AK,

Your Chinese saying reminds me of zhu gel iang's last fight with so ma yi (romance of 3 kingdoms). Zhu ge kiang set the perfect trap using grain, si ma yi walked right into it and was about to perish, when an unexpected bout of rain foiled zhu ge liang's fire trap and saved his adversary.

In any endeavor in life, I remind myself that nowadays, and try not to be too disheartened when things don't go as well as planned.


AK71 said...

Hi Tree,

Thanks for sharing that analogy. I like Romance of the 3 Kingdoms! :)

Well, if life gives us lemons, make lemonade! ;p

AK71 said...

Reader says...
Do you mind sharing if you sold any when it (i.e. QAF) went to around $1.5? If not, how do you not feel heart-pain or beat yourself up for not selling before it turned downwards? Afterall, if one manage to sell at $1.5, now they would have more capital to buy more...
Hope I can learn to have a more resilient heart and mind like you!

AK says...
It shouldn't matter to anyone if I sold or bought anything.
We have to be clear what we want and what we do will have to match.
I am investing mostly for income and I have an idea of what an investment is worth. So, there is no reason to sell unless things have changed.
Hindsight is always perfect. After so many years as an investor, I no longer let such things affect me. ;)

AK71 said...

anon said...
You seem to have a knack of finding stocks at its low share price. I tend to know about it only after the event.

Could you please share your process/system with how you are alerted to their low prices? Do you manually monitor a list of stocks for low prices daily? Or do you rely on a system that trigger notification of the low prices? Whether manually or via a system, I assume you would have a pre-designated price for the stocks?

AK said...
I am not IT savvy.

I simply have a list of stocks which I check at least once a day when the the market closes.

Then, I place an overnight order if I think it is a good thing to do.

Having an idea of what is a fair price to pay is important, of course.

Knowledge of technical analysis helps too. :)

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