The name is Bond, Singapore Savings Bond (Part 3).

There is more news on the Singapore Savings Bond (SSB) by now and there is also plenty of discussion in cyberspace about it. I am sure there is no shortage of questions along the line of "Good or not har?"

So, this is AK asking the same question (i.e. "Good or not har?")  and attempting an answer.




To answer this question, we must first answer a couple of other questions:

1. What is our purpose for considering the SSB?

2. What are the alternatives out there?

When I first found out about the SSB, I thought that it might be a good place to park my emergency fund and war chest. 

Whether I would do it or not would very much depend on the yield I could get from the SSB.




Currently, I park my emergency fund in fixed deposits. The emergency fund is money that I will not touch unless things go very wrong. If the unthinkable should happen, I would have to break the glass, um, I mean fixed deposits. 

So, locking up the money in several fixed deposits that pay 1.08% to 1.25% per annum made sense.

As for money in my war chest which is to be used to capitalise on investment opportunities, I need them to be very near to me. 

The nearest form would be money in savings accounts (unless we consider money I keep in a tin at home as well). I could easily transfer money to my broker using internet banking from my savings account without having to visit the bank.

So, I have an OCBC 360 account which earns higher interest of up to 3.05% (but this is due to change to 2.05% from 1 May, apparently) for the first $50K. I have a CIMB savings account which pays a flat 0.8% for the first $750K. 

I also have some money in my brokerage account which pays 0.6% in interest per annum. All of these rates are better than the 0.05% we get from regular savings accounts here. 

We need a war chest but we should try to reduce the cost of holding money.

If our war chest is somewhat bigger (and, logically, this should mean at least more than $50K in size since the OCBC 360 account, even at 2.05% per annum, would beat any 12 months fixed deposit's interest rate today), then, it makes sense to have some money in fixed deposits which offer interest rates higher than the 0.8% offered by the CIMB savings account. 

Try to make sure that each fixed deposit is smallish in size so that we don't lose out too much if we should have to break one.




When would the SSB make sense for me then?

I understand that the SSB's interest rate would step up every year and if we were to hold the SSB for the maximum of 10 years, we would receive the same yield as a 10 years Singapore Government Security (SGS) which has a yield of about 2.4% per annum. 

So, if we are simply renewing a 12 months fixed deposit each time it matures to capture higher promotional interest rates for the next 12 months, would the SSB be a better option?

Well, right now, the interest rate is about 1.4% for a 12 months fixed deposit and it is more likely than not that interest rates will increase, given time. 

With expectation of higher interest rates in future, each successive fixed deposit would probably have a higher interest rate in the next few years. In such an instance, it makes the SSB less attractive.




If the SSB is not really that attractive an option for my emergency fund, then, it is definitely not an attractive option for money in my war chest which is less likely to be locked up for a much longer period of time compared to money in my emergency fund (touch wood).

We want to remember that in a deflationary environment, interest rates will keep dropping. In an inflationary environment, however, interest rates are likely to keep rising.

Of course, I do not know for sure what is the yield going to be like for the SSB if it were to be held for only a year or two. Only the MAS knows the answer. 

However, I do know that if it is not above the interest rate which I can get for a 12 months fixed deposit from a local bank, it is probably not going to attract me, keeping my purpose for considering the SSB in mind.

Related post:
The name is Bond, Singapore Savings Bond (Part 2).

The name is Bond, Singapore Savings Bond (Part 2).

On 26 March, I blogged about the Singapore Savings Bond (SSB) and during last night's "Evening with AK and friends", we talked about it too.

I am of the opinion that the SSB's coupon is unlikely to be as high as the CPF-OA's base 2.5% interest rate although it has been said that the coupon will be linked to long term Singapore Government Securities' (SGS). If we look at the yields of the 10 years to 30 years SGS, they are above 2% to under 3%.

The SSB gives holders the flexibility of early termination without incurring penalties. Holders will not have to worry about price volatility if they were to sell their SSBs before maturity date. Bonds are supposed to be safer if held to maturity. With the SSB, there is no need to hold to maturity and will be equally safe. This is a big plus.

Of course, now, what is on our minds is what will be the yield?

During last evening's session, Azrael, a fellow blogger whom I got to know not too long ago shared that the yield might be between 0.375% to 1.75%. He blogged about it too. You might want to read his blog post: here.

Credit: Yune Ki.

We really have to wait for more details from the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) closer to the date of the launch which has been scheduled for sometime in the second half of this year. Who knows? We could be pleasantly surprised with the yield. 2.5%? Dare I hope?

Although I really like this development, I feel that the banks will have reason to be worried. Of course, by extension, their shareholders should worry too. Interest income forms about 60% of their total income. The finance companies will have to worry too. Interest income forms about 80% of their total income.

These financial institutions' interest income will take a hit if their cost of funds should go up. Cost of funds will probably go up if they have to compete with the SSB for deposits. By this, I mean they will have to offer more competitive rates for their fixed deposits. Will they be able to charge borrowers correspondingly higher interest rates to maintain their NIMs? Well, whichever way we slice it, things will get a lot more competitive for them.

However, all is not gloom and doom because the MAS also said that there will be a cap as to how much SSB each person is allowed to buy. They said that they want a broader reach and I think, by that, they mean that the SSB is not to benefit the very rich but the masses. This is similar to the mission of the CPF. If the cap is rather modest, then, the impact on the banks and finance companies is likely to be minimal. A cap of $20,000 to $50,000 per person, perhaps?

A modest allowance of SSB per person will also mean that the institution that is the CPF remains relevant as a long term savings tool. The SSB could be like the SRS which is an additional tool to help us achieve retirement adequacy.

I do feel that the government will tread carefully so as not to make the CPF less relevant nor cause hardship for the local financial institutions (which will have unpleasant ramifications).

Let's wait and see.

Related posts:
1. The name is Bond, Singapore Savings Bond.
2. National Day Rally (2014): CPF and retirement.
3. SRS: A brief analysis.