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Regular visitors to my blog would know that I am still actively accumulating units in Saizen REIT. I have written extensively about the REIT and I have also received readers' comments in affirmation as well as cautionary advice.
Even though I believe that my FA of the REIT is thorough and my continuing accumulation of units in the REIT is sensible, it is, dare I say, bracing to hear from more professional quarters.
I remember saying that even if the YK Shintoku portfolio suffers foreclosure, Saizen REIT is still a buy as it would still be severely undervalued. That is why when a friend told me that his father does not like the management's seemingly cavalier attitude towards this matter, I told him that it is not a big issue and that the management has good reasons to be less worried about it.
"Assuming a conservative stance and based on the assumption that the JPY7.25b CMBS loan encumbered with JPY9.10b worth of assets will be foreclosed eventually, using DDM, we value Saizen at 24.5 Scts (previously 24.3 Scts) and arrive at a target price of 17.0 S cts as previously, maintaining our discount to valuation of 30%."
"News flow of new credit access is expected to lift valuations to 32.3Scts and a target price of 22.5Scts (based on the same 30% discount rate), providing catalyst for further upward re-rating of Saizen."
Written by Angeline Phua (NRA Capital) .
SAIZEN REIT: Fair value 17 c, long-term buy , please read it here.
Just like my earlier investments in Healthway Medical and some other companies before I started this blog, I believe that accumulating shares in good companies before everyone else is interested in them is one of the best ways to greater capital gains. Well, in the case of Saizen REIT, we are accumulating units. Good luck to fellow unitholders and have a good Sunday.
Related posts:
Buy Japanese real-estate.
Passive income with high yields: Saizen REIT.
Saizen REIT's quarterly report.
Bloggy Award
8 comments:
Ak 71,
Holding on to my 800 lots of Healthway that I bought in at an average of 0.168.(0.185 and 0.15)
Just hope that your prediction will come true especially so before their full year results.
Cheers
Kingston
Hi Kingston,
Which prediction are you referring to? I don't remember making any predictions. I have done analyses but they are not predictions.
Basically, if we are invested in a good company, we should not worry as the market will recognise its value in the usual way. It depends on whether we have the confidence and the patience to hold our position.
Of course, entering at the right price makes holding with conviction much easier.
Hi Ak 71,
I saw that you have been promoting Saizen REIT for a few posts now.
Do you have any idea why, since its incorporation in 2007. It has only gave out dividend only once in 2008 at 0.0467 TAX EXEMPT. Which isnt alot.
I guess you are just looking for value...but the dividends returns record isn't very attractive.
Care to comment?
Thank You.
Newbie
Hi Newbie,
If you use the search function in the header of my blog and do a search for "Saizen", you will see all the relevant posts and the reasons why I like Saizen REIT so much. :)
I shall list the points briefly here:
It is trading at a huge discount to NAV.
It is lowering its gearing by reducing debts.
It will resume distributions in mid 2010.
Demand for its properties is rather inelastic.
It collects in JPY and will pay us in S$.
Probable re-rating with improving numbers.
Conclusions:
Grossly undervalued.
Lowering risk with lowering gearing.
More than decent yield from mid 2010.
Distribution is sustainable.
Probable capital gains as it gets re-rated.
I hope you enjoy reading my posts. Thanks for visiting.
Hi my friend,
I saw your blog about saizen reits and bought some shares.
i was thinking of setting up an investment club for like minded people. Pls advise. email: john.kohcm@gmail.com
Hi John, An investment club isn't a bad idea..
Hi John,
I am actually a very private person. Prefer to remain faceless. That is also why I declined a request by CNA for an interview. ;-p
You could email me if you click on my nick "AK71". My email is in my Google profile. Thanks. :)
Hi Hubert,
Contact John quick quick and you will be one of the founding members! :-)
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