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I am waiting to add to my long position here. There are signs that price could see some weakness in time to come.
1. Formation of a gravestone doji today on much higher volume. This suggests that buyers were unable to beat sellers as market participants mostly chose to lock in gains.
2. Declining volume as price rose. Volume is the fuel that drives rallies. Without volume, rallies would fizzle out.
3. A lower high on the MACD even as price formed a higher high. A negative divergence. Buying momentum is in decline.
Immediate support is at 72c. If this should fail to hold, I expect the 200d MA, a long term MA to be tested. This is currently at 67.5c.
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6 comments:
Hi AK,
May I know what are your thoughts on Noble?
Today's lowest price hit 1.085.
From my charts, it seems to support is at 1.055.
This counter moves in a wave pattern recently and it looks ripe to make the next wave.
Hi Anonymous,
I know nothing about the wave theory. So, I cannot comment on this.
The lower high and lower low formed recently suggest weakness. Indeed, the lowering MFI suggests continuing weakness in demand.
The MACD has been rising but in negative territory and has completed a bearish crossover with the signal line since flatlining last month. This suggests that any upward movement in price is a rebound. Immediate resistance is provided by the 20dMA at $1.145.
In case of a decline, $1.055 could provide some support but as the downtrend is pretty much intact, we need to see the momentum oscillators showing some strength from the bulls. Otherwise, a lower low could form.
Hi AK,
Haha...guess I've been misunderstood. I didn't know anything about the wave theory as well. I just see the pattern seems to follow a 'wave', up and down :).
Never notice the other indicators cos I'm too lazy :) so I usually only see the price movement.
Thanks for your insightful comment!
Think I'll just try my luck and put a buy order at 1.055.
Hi Anonymous,
Ah, I see. Well, good luck then. :)
Could you include your name or initials in future comments? Thanks.
Hi AK,
You are really funny without knowing how humourous you are at times : ) That's why it is really enjoyable to read your blog.
Wishing you a prosperous 2012 !
KM
Hi KM,
Am I? Really? Oh my. I hope I have not offended anyone in the process.
Wishing you a properous 2012 too. :)
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