Sheng Siong: A good investment for income?

Last year in August, Sheng Siong's IPO created a bit of a buzz. The company promised a pay out ratio of 90% in FY 2011 and FY 2012 to woo investors and offered shares to the public at 33c a piece. It was 1.3x oversubscribed.

For FY2011, net profit fell 36.1% while revenue fell 8%. Net profit margin declined to 4.7% in FY2011 from 6.8% in FY2010. This is although gross profit margin improved somewhat to 22.1% compared to 21.8% in the previous year. Frankly, I find its net profit margin to be rather unattractive and it actually looks worse than some local construction companies'.

However, delivering on its promise of a 90% pay out ratio, the company has proposed a dividend of 1.77c per share for FY2011. At its last traded price of 48c a share, it translates to a dividend yield of about 3.69%. For those who got their shares at IPO, they would have a dividend yield of 5.36% on cost.

Many invested in Sheng Siong thinking of its business as recession proof and that it is a defensive stock to own. However, its numbers suggest that it does not have much of an economic moat and is not really defensive per se. In fact, the leaner margins have been attributed to keen competition from rival supermarket chains.

Debt free and with more cash on hand, let us see if the company would be able to deliver more value to shareholders in the new financial year. However, for any would be investor, it pays to note that after FY2012, there is no guarantee that Sheng Siong would continue with its 90% pay out ratio.

If the payout ratio were to be reduced to 50% or even 30%, what would the dividend per share amount to then? Would its earnings per share grow fast enough to compensate for the lower pay out ratio in order to continue delivering a similar quantum of dividend per share?

Sheng Siong might be a good place for grocery shopping but is it a good investment for income?

The jury is still out on this one.

See slides presentation: here.
See results announcement: here.