QAF Limited: Rising 5c to 93c a share.

I have had a long position in QAF for a while now and I have received a few rounds of dividends. Based on my entry prices, the dividend yield is more than 7%.

I like to think that the dividends received help to pay for some of my groceries like Gardenia wholemeal bread, Cowhead organic rolled oats and the occasional box of Farmland hash browns.

Today, QAF's share price rose by 5c. The counter is still trading CD for a DPS of 4c. I believe the counter will go XD in the first few days of May which is soon.

Technically, could share price go higher to close the gap at 95c or test the highs of 12 months ago at $1.05? It could, of course. There is almost no accounting for prices and my bowling ball agrees with me on this one.

Fundamentally, going through the annual report, although revenue improved year on year by some 4%, costs and expenses went up by 5%. EPS actually fell a bigger 15.2% from 6.6c to 5.6c, year on year. A big part of this was because of provision made for an unrealised forex loss of $5.4 million due to a much weaker A$ against the S$. Otherwise, EPS would have fallen by a smaller magnitude to 6.3c.

The other reason for a lower EPS is that the number of shares in issue increased by some 4.2%. Most of the new shares are from the QAF Scrip Dividend Scheme (SDS) while 6% of the new shares were share options exercised by employees at $0.536 per share.

There are 3,975,000 more options yet to be exercised by employees but these remaining options if exercised now will form less than 1% of the total shares in issue. So, any further dilution because of this is likely to be negligible. Whether there will be more shares issued because of SDS is harder to say.

Quite obviously, to a big degree, whether EPS will improve or not will depend on the strength of the A$. Assuming that the weak A$ persists this year and everything else remains equal, with a full year dividend payout of 5c per share and an EPS of 5.6c, it means that QAF now has a dividend payout ratio of about 92.9% which leaves very little by way of retained earnings.

As a reflection of difficult conditions that QAF faced, NAV per share also fell, year on year, from 74.8c to 72.6c at the end of 2013.

Buying at 93c a share means buying at a PE ratio of 16.6x and a 28% premium to NAV. Unless the A$ strengthens once more, QAF's earnings will have to improve quite dramatically through other means to justify a share price of 93c.

A few days ago, QAF reported stronger 1Q 2014 results. Now, are these numbers what we need to justify a share price of 93c?

1Q EPS improved from 2.2c to 2.3c while NAV/share improved from 72.6c to 75.6c, year on year. Although sales improved in Australia and Malaysia, their currencies' relative weakness means that results aren't as spectacular in S$ terms. Will the stronger results be repeated in the next three quarters of 2014?

If the stronger 1Q 2014 results are replicable for the whole year, then, we could be looking at a full year EPS of 9.2c and a NAV/share of 84.6c. This would make 93c a share inexpensive.

To buy or not to buy? Well, call me kiasu but if I believe that the NAV/share could be 84.6c by end of 2014, I would want to buy closer to that price, give or take a couple of bids. I rather wait to buy at a price I am more comfortable with than to chase after a rising share price.

See: 1Q 2014 results.

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