Tea with FunShine: Crystal Ball Predictions.

Diary of an Investor
Funshine's Crystal Ball Predictions

I lost count of how many hours have I invested into reading or watching articles on the subprime crises or more commonly referred to the Bear followed by the the Leman Brothers collapse or 07/08 financial crisis.

If I was to estimate at least 20 to 30 hours watching the video version of such movies related to it or documentaries. Lost count of how many articles I read relating to it.

I just watched the movie, the Big Shot. And is reflecting on the current market conditions. One of my friends bought bonds last year and lost some money. Sounds familiar.

My portfolio due to my experience and believes has always consisted of:
20% Cash/FD/Bonds
20% Precious Metal/Oil
60% Stocks of which:
35% Dividend Stocks
20% Growth Stocks
05% Trading Stocks

I have stuck with this portfolio mix since 2012 July.

I started investing in Oct 2011, the returns has fluctuate per year from positive 17% to negative 15%. Average out to around 5-7% returns per year only. 7% is considered an average investor. So in a way, I am merely average. However, if I remove Precious Metal/Oil from the mix, the returns is a lot more juicy since I start buying Gold from 1700 to 1500 to 1450 to 1320 to 1250 and most recently trading it.

My financial period is from July to June. Think I will stick on to the current portfolio allocation till end June 2016.

On 1st July 2016, I should be changing the portfolio allocation which I have not done so since 2011 to:
25% Cash
05% FD, 3 months rolling
20% Precious Metal/Oil
30% Dividend Stocks
15% Growth Stocks
05% Trading

Looking at the crystal balls this is my market predictions, of cos I am no different from the weather man.

My next five years forecast, FY16/17 to FY20/21:

2016 to 2018:
STI should bounce back to 3200-3400.
If it hit 3600 sell 30% of all stocks.
If it hit 3800 sell 50% of all remaining stocks and rotate the money to rolling 3 months FD.

2016 Sept to Early 2018:
Market will be very volatile
Cash is King and Key
Stick to the portfolio mix and react appropriately.

Mid 2018:
Time to consider buying a property

End 2018 to Mid 2019:
Acquisition of a property

2019 to 2021:
Market should recover.
Back to buying dividend generating stock

FY16/17:
25% Cash
05% FD, 3 months rolling
20% Precious Metal/Oil
30% Dividend Stocks
15% Growth Stocks
05% Trading

FY17/18 to 18/19:
20% Cash
12% Precious Metal/Oil
08% Property(Hold Cash if no Opp)
60% Stocks of which:
40% Dividend Stocks
15% Growth Stocks
05% Trading Stocks

FY19/20 to 20/21:
20% Cash
10% Precious Metal/Oil
10% Property
60% Stocks of which:
45% Dividend Stocks
10% Growth Stocks
05% Trading Stocks

My savings and emergency fund does not form my portfolio. My SRS is considered as the portfolio under cash but CPF is not included.

SRS and CPF(SA) are considered as war chests.
SRS is open when STI ETF give a 4% yield.
CPF(SA) is open when STI ETF give a 5% yield.

I am turning 36 in July. May draw out some savings to give myself a present, either to upgrade myself or buy into a friend's company.

Once April ends, my 6 months break from work will end. Meanwhile, I am going to apply for a subject in Master of Gerontology which will starts in July. I am also taking M5, M9 and M9A in April if I choose to switch from Social Service to Financial Advisor.

Market will be very bad. Not wise to be a Financial Advisor during this climate. Study first, think later. End April will have time to think about it as I will be in reservist.

Meanwhile, glad to have visited Facebook, Google and Apple in Silicon Valley. Glad to have seen the economy of Canada too as part of my cash holding may be in Canadian dollar if it is still so low.

On my flight back to Singapore from San Fransisco one week holiday after being in Canada, Toronto and Edmonton for nearly two months.

Can't wait to eat a good bowl of BCM, Mee Pok dry with lots of lard.

Diary of an Investor
Funshine's Crystal Ball Predictions
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AK's comment:

"It is important for all of us to have a plan, our own plan, so that we know what to do in different scenarios and not freeze into inaction when action is required. It has to be our own plan, one that we are comfortable and familiar with, one that allows us to sleep well at night."

Related posts:
1. Have a plan, your own plan.

2. Revisiting AK's plan with Charlie Munger.