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COVID-19 defeated by Mr. Market already?

Friday, March 27, 2020

This blog is in response to a reader's comment: HERE.

AK says:

Hi D,

Well, like you said, Mr. Market can stay irrational for a very long time.

I always say that there is no accounting for Mr. Market's mood swings. ;p

As for what some might think of as a stock market recovery in the last few days, I think it is too early to call it that.

It will be more accurate to call it a strong rebound from a drastic and rapid plunge.

Technically, at least for the stocks which I am monitoring, the downtrends are still intact.

Also, I do not see any significant increase in volume as those stock prices rose in the last few days.






Having said this, I am not saying that it is definitely a trap for the buy and hold investors.

TA is about probability after all and not certainty.

For sure, more competent traders would have made some money in this instance.

I don't trade very much anymore as my energy is mostly spent elsewhere in another world.

Even so, I have nibbled at some stocks and increased my investments in some businesses which I am sure will continue to generate a meaningful income for me.






However, I have not unlocked my war chests to buy a lot more. 

PM Lee said that this COVID-19 crisis is going to be worse than SARS and possibly even the Global Financial Crisis.

I believe that this is the case.

I am looking at the situation and also the charts not in terms of days but more in terms of weeks and months.

Of course, I hope the crisis won't last a year or two.

Heavens forbid.

If this is going to be worse than SARS and the Global Financial Crisis, then, there is a high chance that we have not seen Mr. Market in the depths of his depression yet.

Of course, it is important to remember that AK is just talking to himself here in ASSI.

Everyone should have his or her own plan.





If you have not done so, watch this video from the Prime Minister's Office which was released earlier today.

If you are only interested in when and how PM Lee thinks Singapore's economy is going to recover, fast forward to 7:15 in the video.




"... the waves will take many, many months or more than a year or two to settle..." PM Lee.

Remember, wash our hands more frequently, practice social distancing and behave in a responsible manner.

We are #SGUnited.





Related post:
COVID-19 defeated by Mr. Market in 2021 or so the IMF says.

10 comments:

laurence said...

Singaporeans are eagerly waiting for AK to unleash his huge war-chests to stimulate the economy. ;)
AK will save the Little Red Dot.

AK71 said...

Hi Laurence,

The day AK is able to save Singapore with his war chests is the day Singapore has travelled back in time to 1819...

Kaput!

Ok said...

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/banking-finance/bank-of-singapore-urging-leveraged-clients-to-sell-in-rally

AK71 said...

Hi Ok,

If we are using borrowed funds to invest in the stock market, using the rebound to reduce exposure would be a prudent thing to do.

I see the moving averages still declining in the charts and they will exert downward pressure on prices.

Downtrends are still intact.

At this point, what I see is a strong rebound which might or might not test resistance.

I do not see a trend reversal yet.

Peachmilktea said...

Hi AK, I lost a lot of money on EHT. I took your advice but only cut the loss of 20 lots in EHT. In total, I have 40 lots in EHT before, so I still left another 20 lots. Now I regret this decision. I think there is no way for me to recover this amount of money back anymore. It is a scam and I cannot do anything now - trading hold now. What shall I do? what is the best way for me to recover at least some of them? Do you think there is any chance to earn back what I lose?

WTK said...

Hi AK,

My take is that it makes sense to stay invested at all time. The market will take care of itself and the buy and hold investors are not worried of the market condition give that the focus is on the generated dividends.

WTK

AK71 said...

Hi Peachmilktea,

I am sorry for you loss but remember:

1. We cannot always be right.

2. Selling 50% was not a bad move and this is something many do to take some money off the table or to limit losses if things go bad.

3. Unless it is definitely a scam, there is always a chance that things might improve as it isn't over till it is over.

Crossing fingers.

Not giving advice here in ASSI, of course. ;)

You might want to write to bloggers who are invested in EHT and ask them what are they doing because having skin in the game, they might have a different perspective.

Reference:
Eagle Hospitality Trust: In danger of extinction.

AK71 said...

Hi WTK,

Good that you have a plan.

Unknown said...

Hi AK.
Is it convenient to share what counters are in your radar now to monitor so as to build income for future? Thanks

AK71 said...

Hi Unknown,

For some clues, see this blog:

Largest investments updated (4Q 2019).

Good luck to all of us. :)

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