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Market sways between hope and worry while AK plays games.

Saturday, April 25, 2020

This is the 19th day of Singapore's "Circuit Breaker" also known as "Lockdown" or "Partial Lockdown".

It is what it is.

All these fancy names.

Lawrence Wong says "Lockdown" means different things to different people.

"Circuit Breaker" also means different things to different people.

To me, "Circuit Breaker" is "Lockdown".

Semantics.

We can go on and on.

Beautiful.

Anyway, I have not blogged for more than 2 weeks which isn't too bad.

I did say I was going to blog only once every 3 months not too many moons ago.

What have I been up to?

If you have to ask, you must be new to my blog.

I am busy adventuring in another world, of course.






"Neverwinter" currently has an event called "Tales of Old" that rewards adventurers with powerful artifacts if they run old dungeons with increasingly challenging debuffs.

There are four artifacts to be collected and, over a few days, I have completed enough runs to get the artifact which I feel is most useful to my wizard.

I might collect another artifact just for the fun of it because the event is fun.

This is what retirement should be, right?

Do stuff for fun.

More recently, I decided to learn how to play "Magic the Gathering".

I have always been amazed by people who would spend boatloads of money buying these little packs of playing cards.

I see school children huddling around tables outside shops which sell them, competing against one another.

Most of them looked skinny.

Saved all their recess money to buy cards, maybe.

I was curious but when I saw how much I had to pay for those packs of cards and how it was a never ending story, my curiosity fizzled out quickly.

Well, that was a long time ago.

Back then, it would be unimaginable to have a fantasy RPG for the PC like "Neverwinter" be 100% free to play.

Well, I found out a few days ago that I could play "Magic the Gathering" for free online too!

Being a card game, it is very different from "Neverwinter" but they did a really good job with the animations when the cards are played.

Basically, build a deck and play to unlock more cards and gain points to purchase packs of cards.

These packs of cards are like boxes of chocolates.

You don't know what are the cards you will get which is why people buy with real world money (as opposed to virtual world money) pack after pack of cards in the hope that they will get those cards they want.

It is really another form of lottery.

Anyway, the full name of the online game I am playing is "Magic the Gathering: Arena".

The "Circuit Breaker" has been extended till 1 June 2020.

So, if you are feeling bored at home, you might want to explore this free to play game.






Although I have not blogged for more than 2 weeks, I have tried to check the comments section of my blogs regularly because I know there is still plenty of "excitement".

Of course, many spam comments too which, fortunately, are filtered out.

Those which are not filtered out, I will delete.

The section is for "comments" and not for "advertisements" nor "advertisements pretending to be comments".

Wolves in sheepskin.

You know who you are.

Anyway, if you don't see any updates in my blog for a while, you might want to check the comments sections of the more recent blogs.

The last 3 updates, for example, have many comments from readers and my replies to them.

Another reason why I have not published any update is because there isn't anything new that I want to say.

Some expect the COVID-19 crisis to "magically disappear" like a "miracle".

Some think that the COVID-19 crisis is going to sink the world into another "Great Depression".

With all that noise going on, my strategy has remained unchanged.

I will not be overly optimistic nor will I be overly pessimistic.

I will stay pragmatic.

I am staying invested because I believe that most of the businesses I am invested in will still be around as the COVID-19 crisis is resolved over time.

I will buy more stocks when I have greater clarity.

Like I said in earlier updates, I have nibbled at some stocks but I will wait for greater clarity before buying much more.

If you are new to my blog or cannot remember what I said, read my more recent updates.






Technically, the upward movement in stock prices was not supported by much higher volume and I think I said that in one of my updates.

Volume is the fuel that drives rallies and if we do not have volume, any upward movement in price will not last.

As long as volume is missing, the prospect of a V shape recovery dims.

Remember, I said on 7 April that:

"Today, the stock prices of DBS, OCBC and UOB all broke the resistance provided by their declining 20 days moving averages (20d MA).

"What this says to me is that they broke their downtrends."

That was when I bought some.

However, I didn't throw in everything including the kitchen sink.

I said in that update that as the 20d MA turns up:

"Basically, we want to see any retreat in stock prices bouncing off the 20d MA then."

Well, that bounce didn't happen.

Of course, technical analysts can talk about rising wedge patterns and how it was all a bull trap now.

I will just stick to my plan.

Be patient.

Wait for clarity.






In a U shape recovery, the bottoming process is likely to be bumpy as Mr. Market sways between hope and worry.

It will take time.

What if it is a L shape recovery?

Well, that is when those of us who have an emergency fund would do better than those who don't as the economy becomes stuck in the doldrums.

It will take even more time then.

What if it is a delayed or mutated V shape recovery?

Hurrah!

Celebrate!

We should buy even at higher prices if we see huge volume buying up stocks.

That would be a sure sign that the bull is back.

That is when high can go higher.






OK, that is all I want to say in this update.

I really want to go back to adventuring in "Neverwinter" and testing my new deck of cards in "Magic the Gathering: Arena".

In the meantime, be socially responsible and stay safe.

The health of all depends on each one of us.

We are #SGUnited.

You might want to read these and also the comments and my replies:
1. Stock market correction...
2. Buying DBS, OCBC, UOB and IREIT...
3. Largest REIT investments...
4. 1Q 2020 passive income...

27 comments:

redponza said...

Hi AK,
Coincidentally, I also play Magic the Gathering!
Hope you enjoy this amazing game!

laurence said...

Quote.
'Some expect the COVID-19 crisis to "magically disappear" like a "miracle".'
Unquote.

Trump is nothing more than a serial pretender cum trickster. And a disgraceful one at that.
First, he pretended to be an Oracle with his "miracle" forecast (which tarnishes the good name of all true Oracles such as AK the Oracle). ;)
Then he pretended to be a Shaman by prescribing the unproven Remdesivir and Hydroxychloroquine.
And now, he pretends to be Dr Frankenstein urging people to inject disinfectant into their own bodies.
But even more mind-boggling is that Americans are not ashamed they elected such a President. :(

Azrael said...

Can look at Legends of Runeterra. Also free.

I quit MTG many many years ago, played Hearthstone then Artifact, now Legends like not bad leh.

Try and see see

AK71 said...

Hi redponza,

I am only a few days into MTG and I can see why it has such a huge following.

If we are not too competitive and just want to have some fun, the F2P route is perfectly fine.

There is a strong element of pay to win in MTG compared to Neverwinter.

Now, I am having fun just mucking around with what I can do without paying real life money. ;p

AK71 said...

Hi Laurence,

Every time I see Trump on TV or hear him talk, I cringe.

I would need to use almost all the negative adjectives in the English language if I must describe him.

If Trump wins a second term, there is something very wrong in the USA and it is not just Trump.

AK71 said...

Hi Azrael,

Legends of Runeterra is F2P?

OK, it is added to my list. ;)

For now, MTG Arena is still fresh and interesting.

I have not tried Hearthstone because I hear it is from the WoW family which means it is not F2P. ;p

Azrael said...

Hi AK,

It is F2P, Hearthstone also.

But MTG and Hearthstone is P2W, so a bit sian.

Legends of Runeterra is not (at least for now) so hopefully it can sustain.

I was a MTG Legacy player back then when decks costs 400-1k+, fortunately sold away all my cards. Felt like I was selling my childhood away though.

AK71 said...

Hi Azrael,

I went and watched some reviews after reading what you said.

You are right that Hearthstone is also F2P but like MTG, the P2W element is strong.

LoR has high marks for fair monetization and a more level playing field.

So, thank you and I will be downloading LoR. ;)

Hey, you did the right thing selling away those MTG cards and putting the money to better use.

I gave away many things from my childhood days and I would give away more but things which were dear to me as a child are mostly considered junk today. ;p

The Dreamzola Traveller said...

3 weeks of staying at home, I ended up more busy than before. More time for my interests and passions!!! The only concern now is....will I be able to get back into my work momentum once its over. lol.

AK71 said...

Hi TDT,

Oh, I am always baffled by people who ask me if I am bored in retirement?

Bored?

Oh my, I don't have enough time for all the stuff I want to do. ;p

Enjoy your new and busier lifestyle while it lasts. ;p

Rellangis said...

So this is what having your own time to do what you like feels like... To be financially free. It is indeed a great feeling to have. Unfortunately for many of us, we are all going to be tied to our jobs paying us our salary to put food on our tables... Worse for those who are out of jobs in this crisis...

Trying to build up my passive income in the meantime and reading your blog is an inspiration.

AK71 said...

Hi Rellangis,

If my blog is inspiring more people to start their journey towards financial freedom, I am glad.

It is during times of personal financial distress, whatever the cause, that makes the need for greater financial security more pronounced.

Make hay while the Sun shines.

Be prepared for not just a rainy day but also a storm.

You have probably read it but, for a start, I would ask all new readers to read this compilation if they have not done so:
Survivability and opportunity in times of distress.

Gambatte! :)

Deet said...

APTT issuing rights, and thereafter correspondingly cutting dividend to 0.0025 per unit per quarter post Rights Issue.... and still no conclusion pertaining to the strategic review. I wonder if the rights issue is an idea for them to scoop up a larger proportion of APTT float at a lowball price to facilitate the strategic review.

"APTT Management Pte. Limited (the “Trustee-Manager”), as Trustee-Manager of Asian Pay
Television Trust (“APTT” or the “Trust”), has proposed a renounceable non-underwritten rights issue (the “Rights Issue”) of new units in APTT (the “Rights Units”) to raise gross proceeds of approximately S$46.2 million.

A total of 361,270,970 Rights Units at S$0.128 each will be issued on the basis of one (1) Rights Unit for every four (4) existing Units held by APTT Unitholders as at a record date to be determined. The Rights Issue is subject to approval in-principle from the SGX-ST for the listing of and quotation for the Rights Units on the Main Board of the SGX-ST.

To show their commitment and vote of confidence in APTT and the Rights Issue, APTT Management Pte. Limited (in its personal capacity and not as trustee-manager of APTT) and three other unitholders have each given an irrevocable undertaking to subscribe for their entitlements and (as the case may be) apply for excess Rights Units (collectively, the "Irrevocable Undertakings"). The total commitments under the Irrevocable Undertakings would be equal to the total number of Rights Units available under the Rights Issue."

Dom said...

Would like to hear AK talking to yourself on the right issue

AK71 said...

Hi Deet,

Thanks for sharing this.

I have shared my thoughts in a blog:
APTT: 1 for 4 rights issue at 12.8c a unit.

AK71 said...

Hi Dom,

Please see my reply to Deet. ;)

Azrael said...

Hi AK,

If you like Legends of Runeterra, my friend ID is Azrael 4802 :)

See you there

AK71 said...

Hi Azrael,

I will log in and send you a friend request later, senpai. :D

Rellangis said...

Hi AK,

I have a question on CPF Life...

When one reaches age 55, the OA and SA will merge to form RA acc.
Assuming if I have minimum BRS in RA, CPF will start to make monthly payout at age 65.

Question:
Does the amount I pledged earlier(BRS amt) in RA continue to earn interest in CPF? If so, is the interest still mine or is given to the CPF board?

AK71 said...

Hi Rellangis,

Your RA savings (BRS, FRS or ERS) will continue to earn interest.

All the money in your CPF accounts including interest earned is yours.

You might be interested in my mother's experience which I shared in this blog back in 2016:
Mom stunned at what happened to her CPF-RA money!

Rellangis said...

Hi AK,

Thanks for the speedy reply!
Assuming 200k is put into RA at age 55. Payout will start 10 years later at 65.
The RA pool will be 200k plus the interest earned over 10 years?

AK71 said...

Hi Rellangis,

That 200K in your RA at age 55 will earn interest income over the next 10 years before the annuity that is CPF LIFE starts paying you a monthly income from your RA at age 65 for the rest of your life.

From age 55 to 65, we are "allowing CPF-RA money to accumulate" and I talked about it in this blog I published in 2016, for example:
Why work hard and plan early for retirement?

Gambatte! :)

Unknown said...

Hi Ak, I've been following your blog for many years.Can you talk to yrself with regards to how u invest with a sum of 300k right at this crisis?

AK71 said...

Hi Unknown,

I have been asked similar questions before in the past and I have always said I don't know.

What works for me might not work for another person.

Ask yourself what you want to achieve and you will know what you might want to do with the money.

If what you want to achieve is passive income creation from investing in equities, you might want to read my story shared in the many blogs linked in the right side bar in the box titled "Passive Income: A Journey."

You will need to go to the web version of my blog to see the side bars as they do not show up in the simplified mobile version of my blog.

Having said this, I did say that I bought into DBS, OCBC, UOB and IREIT Global during this crisis.

References:
1. Buying DBS, OCBC, UOB and cheering for IREIT Global.
2. Largest REIT investments updated: COVID-19 meltdown.
3. COVID-19 defeated in 2021 or so the IMF says.
4. Mr. Market is sick from COVID-19 and AK talks to himself.

The tools we use should match our motivation.

AK71 said...

Oops.

Broken link.

3. COVID-19 defeated in 2021 or so the IMF says.

CupcakedCrusader said...

Hi Ak, do you think the dust is kind of settled for the 3 banks now? The 20d and 50d MA are both turning up with the run up in prices the last 2 weeks. Could you kindly talk to yourself on how can I use chart lato help me better decide my entry points.

Thank you!

AK71 said...

Hi CupcakedCrusader,

Even though the real economy might not experience a fast recovery, the stock market is experiencing one.

I would add to my investments if prices should pull back to supports for DBS and UOB.

OCBC is looking weaker probably because of the unrest in Hong Kong.

You might be interested in my reply to Keng on this matter:
HERE.

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