Charts in brief: 15 April 10.

Another high volume day for the STI.  The index closed hardly changed today.  Unless there are more definite signs to the contrary, the bias is for the index to continue rising.

PM Lee sees ‘good’ growth after record first quarter: Bloomberg
Thursday, 15 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

CapitaMalls Asia: Turning in a set of impressive numbers has not helped its share price as it closed at $2.27 today.  A big black candle day on higher volume.  Fundamentally, this company is very sound.  Technically, it has been rather weak.  It has been consolidating since breaking down from an uptrend on 23 March.  If downward pressure persists, I see strong support at $2.20 and that's where I would buy more. Upside eventual target remains at $2.55 which is a few cents more than DBS Vickers' target price of $2.51.

Retail sales rise a second month as economy rebounds
Thursday, 15 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Golden Agriculture: Mixed signals persist as a white inverted hammer was formed today with price closing the session at 61.5c.  Could we be looking at a correction using time?  Could Golden Agriculture's price be waiting for the 20dMA to catch up?  We have had a series of reversal signals but none has been confirmed as price closed firmly at or above 60c, the immediate support, in the last few sessions.  MFI has formed a higher high after forming higher lows.  Buying momentum is positive. OBV has not declined dramatically. The situation is very dicey.  Wait and see.  No fresh positions and I will hold on to my remaining shares in case the price goes higher.

NOL: Price did not close above $2.30 today and the buy signal on the MACD has been negated.  Volume is much reduced compared to the previous session.  This suggests that this is profit taking rather than a massive selldown.  Further downside should be capped at $2.17, a many times tested resistance turned support.  This is followed by $2.12.  A continuing trek upwards would need to see the price closing above $2.30 firmly and the eventual target is $2.60 then.

Singapore March container traffic up 10% from Feb
Thursday, 15 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Courage Marine: Clinging on to 22.5c, the MFI remains in overbought territory.  I would accumulate on weakness and queue to buy more at 21.5c (one bid above initial support).  Courage Marine's strong fundamentals and the improving Asian economies bode well for the company's fortunes in the near term.

SPH: A very nice white candle day on heavy volume as the price closed firmly above $4.00 at $4.04.  The upside target is now $4.20.  OBV is rising strongly, signalling increased accumulation and the MFI has pushed further into overbought territory. Any pullback would see $3.84 acting as a strong support.

AusGroup:  Sell signal seen on the MACD.   MFI in overbought territory.  A pullback should find support at 63.5c.  70c is the immediate target.

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Charts in brief: 14 April 10.

Charts in brief: 13 April 10.

Golden Agriculture: A black spinning top.  This is the seventh reversal signal in a row and seeing how price action has detached from the upper limits of the Bollinger band, a retracement to supports is probable: 20dMA is at 58c and 50dMA is at 56c.  MFI formed a higher low but failed to form a higher high today.  The OBV shows a lack of strength in accumulation.  Of course, as usual, an upward movement in price with high volume would negate all bearish signals.  This does not look likely.

Saizen REIT: Some profit taking happening today.  17c is initial support.  If this goes, a much stronger support is at 16.5c.
Notice of a Director's (including a director who is a substantial shareholder) Interest and Change in Interest: 12-04-2010, Starich purchased 1,000,000 Warrants on the open market.  Mr Arnold Ip Tin Chee is one of the beneficiaries of a trust which directly own Starich. Hence, Mr Ip is deemed to be interested in the 1,000,000 warrants held by Kim Eng Securities Pte Ltd in favour of Starich.

Healthway Medical:  The counter traded at one price only today, 16.5c.  The Bollinger bands are squeezing, it seems, and this usually means an increased volatility in price action is not far off.  16c remains a critical support to watch.  On the face of it, things are not looking good for this counter.

SPH: A long legged doji confirmed the black candle sell signal from the previous session.  Sell signal confirmed on the MACD as well.  Price has detached from the upper limits of the Bollinger bands.  Support is at $3.84. 
SPH has declared an interim dividend of 7 cents per share.

SPH reports 30% rise in 2Q net profit to $113m
Tuesday, 13 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Courage Marine: Although on signifcantly reduced volume, we have another black candle today.  With MFI in the overbought region and with OBV turning down, the probability is higher for the counter to retrace to support.  I see initial support at 21c.

AusGroup: In my last TA, I said "Price gapped up only to form a white inverted hammer which seems to suggest that fatigue is setting in. MFI has entered overbought territory. A perfect time to take some profit off the table? I think so." A big black candle day today as price closed lower at 66.5c.  However, of note is the much lower volume on this pullback. The selldown has been mild.  Any further selldown would find initial support at 63.5c

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Charts in brief:12 April 10.

Charts in brief: 12 April 10.

CapitaMalls Asia:  No follow through on what had seemed like a promising up day in the previous session as a wickless black candle was formed today.  It is reasonable to assume from today's action that this counter is trapped in a narrow range between $2.33 and $2.28.  When everyone finally tires of looking at the charts, this counter might just surprise on the upside.

Golden Agriculture:  A long legged doji.  This is a possible reversal signal as price does not seem able to break resistance at 62.5c.  However, the MFI has formed a higher low and OBV continues to rise.  Golden Agriculture might just try to push higher.  Channel resistance is at 64.5c this week.

Saizen REIT: Initial resistance remains at 17.5c. Volumes on down days have been relatively lower and this suggests a strong underlying support.  A retest of 18c is still very likely.  The descending 100wMA is also at 18c and this is likely to be a strong resistance.

Healthway Medical:  Today's price action dashed the hopes of stale bulls.  The counter's downward bias is re-asserting itself. Critical support remains at 16c.

SPH: Sell signal seen on the MACD.  Big black candle day as price closed at $3.94.  MFI is in overbought territory.  A pullback should find initial support at $3.84.

Courage Marine:  A premature attempt to move higher, it seems.  Price ended unchanged. Any retreat in price should find support at 21c.  I would accumulate on weakness as improving fundamentals make this counter more promising over the next few months.

AusGroup: Closed at 67.5c resistance level.  Reached a high of 69c. Next resistance is at 70c.  Price gapped up only to form a white inverted hammer which seems to suggest that fatigue is setting in. MFI has entered overbought territory. A perfect time to take some profit off the table? I think so.

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Charts in brief: 9 April 10.

Charts in brief: 8 April 10.

CapitaMalls Asia: A doji, another reversal signal, was formed today with price closing at $2.29 with the lowest volume in weeks.  A reversal signal again?  Dare I hope?

Golden Agriculture:  Yesterday, I said that with "both the MFI and OBV turning down, which suggest reduced buying momentum and the presence of some distribution, the black spinning top possibly signals a reversal".  The counter went to touch a low of 59c today before closing at 60c.  MFI and OBV continue to decline and we see a sell signal on the MACD. If we look at the chart, the 20dMA has not been very reliable as a support in past instances.  I would look to the 50dMA instead this time for a strong support.  It is currently at 55c.

Saizen REIT: A black candle day as price closed at 17c on lower volume.  Likely short term profit taking.  It is quite clear from the chart that 17c was a resistance level since 22 Jan 10.  We need confirmation in the next few sessions to see if 17c is resistance turned support.  If it is, chances are that price action would be forming a new base at 17c before moving higher.  Such is the slow motion rise of Saizen REIT but the longer term MAs are rising and there is no question that the longer term uptrend is intact.

Healthway Medical: Another gravestone doji as price closed unchanged at 16.5c.  This is somewhat impressive but with the 20dMA and 50dMA both completing their downturns, a move downwards to critical support at 16c looks most likely in the near term.  The MFI has also formed a lower high and this suggests that buying momentum is definitely weakening.

SPH: Reversal signal was negated as SPH formed a nice and long wickless white candle, closing at $3.94.  OBV is rising strongly as accumulation carries on.  MFI has flattened and is not overbought.  A push towards $4.00 is now looking very likely.

AusGroup: Touched a high of 64c on respectable volume but closed at 62c.  This candlestick is very bearish.  63c remains the immediate resistance.  On top of this, the MACD has a sell signal.  However, the MFI has formed a higher low.  This suggests that buying momentum is still strong.  OBV suggests that there is no distribution yet.  AusGroup might try to push higher again but things are looking dicey.

Oceanus: Sell signal confirmed today on the MACD.  Price closed at 36.5c which is support provided by the 100dMA.  We will need confirmation whether this is the new support level.  If it breaks, next support is at 35c.

Genting SP: Volume shrank as price closed at 89.5c.  It would be interesting to see if it continues basing at this level or moves to test the recent low of 83.5c in time.  With MFI and Stochastics near oversold regions, I do not expect any drastic downward movement in price if news stay benign.

China Hongxing: No follow through from yesterday as price formed a black candle, resisted by the declining 50dMA.  Immediate support remains at 15c.  Fundamentally, the company has many challenges and made some bad decisions last year.  The slightest positive newsflow in such a situation might have a strong positive impact on the share price.

Some readers asked if I am vested in all the counters I cover.  I'm not.  I am not vested in the last four counters here, for example.  I do the TA for these for various other reasons.  If you happen to be vested in these counters, I hope the TA is useful to you.

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Charts in brief: 7 April 2010.

Charts in brief: 7 April 2010.

CapitaMalls Asia: Closed unchanged at $2.28 after touching a high of $2.31, forming an inverted black hammer, which, by the way, is another possible reversal signal.  We have been getting many of these reversal signals and none has followed through thus far. MFI has turned down but OBV is flat.  Overall, the suggestion is that the price has found support and is currently going through a basing process.

Golden Agriculture: First black candle in many days and a spinning top at that.  With both the MFI and OBV turning down, which suggest reduced buying momentum and the presence of some distribution, the black spinning top possibly signals a reversal.  Channel resistance is at 64c but will the price move to test this before the week is up? It could happen but, technically, it is obvious that weakness is setting in.

Saizen REIT: Volume has expanded for four days in a row with price closing at 17.5c, forming a wickless white candle, today.  The MFI has surpassed the previous high and is nowhere near overbought.  The buying momentum could strengthen.  OBV has risen sharply, suggesting heightened accumulation.  The MACD continues pulling away from the signal line on the upside, which is bullish.  The declining 50dMA has now turned up, joining the 20d, 100d and 200d MAs in cutting out ascending paths.  The Bollinger bands are just beginning to widen. A move to test the previous high at 18c seems close at hand.

Healthway Medical: Despite a rising MFI, suggesting some positive buying momentum, price action formed a gravestone doji today. Even more ominous, we see the 20dMA beginning to turn down.  MACD is moving closer towards zero.  Unless some heavy volume buy ups happen in the next two or three weeks, the 20dMA seems destined to form a dead cross with the 50dMA and the MACD would be in negative territory.  Support remains at 16c and if this breaks, we should see stronger support at 15c.

SPH: Slight reduction in volume today as the MFI turned down.  OBV is still rising as accumulation continues unabated.  However, the white spinning top formed today suggests indecision.  If this is confirmed as a reversal signal, the journey towards $4.00 would be aborted and $3.82 is the immediate support.

AusGroup:  It seems that 63c remains insurmountable for now.  Price formed a doji, closing at 62c, today.  Although MFI has formed a new high, volume has reduced slightly over a three day period.  There is still a chance of 63c being taken out but volume has to expand on renewed buying ineterest for this to happen.  If volume dwindles, a downward move towards support at 60c is more likely.

Oceanus:  Touched a high of 38c but closing at 37c, price formed a gravestone doji today.  We have a sell signal on the MACD.  Immediate support at 36.5c.  This is where we find the flat 100dMA.  Stronger support is to be found at 35c, where we see a confluence of the 20d, 50d and 200d MAs. Recap: Oceanus.

Genting SP: Touched a high of 92.5c but was resisted by the 20dMA and closed at 90c. Genting SP has emerged from its downtrend in mid March and is now moving sideways. The stochastics and MFI are both near oversold territories.  Price seems to have found support for now and further weakness is expected to be mild if news remain benign. Recap: Genting SP: Obvious downtrend.

China Hongxing: This counter broke out today unexpectedly on high volume, touching a high of 16.5c, it closed at 16c, resisted by the declining 50dMA.  If it manages to close above 16c in the next session, the upside targets are at 18c (100dMA) and 19c (200dMA).  Immediate support is provided by the upturning 20dMA at 15c.  Breaking 16c convincingly would most probably see punters coming in to push it higher towards 18c. Recap: China Hongxing: Downside target?

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT:  Price opened and closed at 22c today, forming a dragonfly doji.  This is the first time it has happened since end January 2010.  We also see a buy signal on the MACD.  OBV is up.  MFI is up.  The Bollinger bands look to be on the verge of widening and if that follows through, this counter is probably going to test the top of the base formation at 23c although, from a chart pattern perspective (where I look out for symmetry), it seems a tad early.  Indeed, the low volume seen today adds an element of caution. Recap: Charts in brief: 19 Mar 10.

LMIR: This counter has to close above a bunching of MAs which are supports turned resistance.  If price could close firmly above 49c in the next few sessions, this objective woud have been achieved.  MFI is rising towards 50%.  Stochastics is rising from the oversold region.  The rising 200dMA is at 47c and should provide support in the event of further weakness. Fundamentals remain strong and I would accumulate on weakness.  Recap: LMIR: More units at 10% yield.

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Charts in brief: 6 April 2010.

AusGroup: Update.

AusGroup seems to have some trouble breaking resistance at 61.5c. If we draw a trendline support from 9 Feb, we see the support at 59.5c today, it is quite clear that the uptrend is broken.

However, I would like to point out that volume was rather low and, in fact, it is true for other down days in the past few weeks. Volume has been generally lower on down days and higher on up days for AusGroup recently. This suggests that a longer term accumulation is underway and this is confirmed by the rising OBV in recent weeks. However, with the MFI turning down, I expect some weakness in the near term but I do not expect a crash in price.

If 58.5c gives way, the next supports are at 57.5c (50% Fibo) and 56.5c (38.2% Fibo).  If the price action moves above the trendline support once more, resistance remains at 61.5c.

CapitaMalls Asia and AusGroup.

CapitaMalls Asia: Price closed below the trendline support today at $2.29, after touching a low of $2.28 (the 38.2% Fibo line).  Technically, this is supported by the declining 50dMA.  The decline is on the back of low volume with the MFI and OBV more or less unchanged.  These signs suggest that a benign low volume pullback is taking place.  However, this does not mean that price would not continue to drift downwards.  If the $2.28 support is broken, the next support level is at $2.25 which would see me buying more.

AusGroup:  Nice up day with price closing at resistance provided by the 50dMA at 60c after hitting a high of 61.5c on the back of increased volume.  MFI and OBV have both turned up which suggest that buying momentum and accumulation are both moving up a notch. 

We have a buy signal on the MACD as well and it seems poised to cross above zero. Resistance is provided by the merged 100d and 200d MAs at 63c. Initial support is at 58.5c. A negative is the long wick on the white candle which suggests selling later on in the session today.  This adds a cautionary tone in an otherwise positive picture.

Golden Agriculture, AusGroup and Genting SP.

Golden Agriculture failed to move higher today and closed at 54c.  It formed a bearish black candle and with stochastics closer to the overbought region, it doesn't look promising.  On the brighter side, although it has closed lower, it is still above the rising 50dMA.  The 20dMA is turning up.  MFI has formed a higher low and the next session will see if it could continue to do so.  I continue to see resistance at 59c and strong support at 50c. 

AusGroup too formed a black candle as it closed at 58c, supported by the 20dMA.  This is on the back of significantly lower volume.  With the MFI forming a higher high, there might be some momentum left in the upmove.  For stale bulls who missed out on reducing their exposure here in the last couple of sessions, there might still be a chance to do so yet.  Strong resistance is at 63c.

Genting SP continues to weaken as expected.  The highest it got to this week was 98c to give stale bulls a chance to reduce exposure.  Closing at 91c today hugs the lower limits of the Bollinger bands.  The downtrend seems ready to continue as the MFI continues to decline indicating reducing buying momentum.  In the unlikely even that the price moves up in the next session, resistance is at 98c.

Looking at the weekly chart, we see a precarious situation.  Price is hugging the lower limits of the Bollinger bands and the MFI continues to decline just like in the daily chart.  However, what is important is that it has closed below the rising 50wMA which is at 92.5c.  If price is unable to recapture this support level to close at or above 92.5c in the next session, which is the last trading day of the week, the chart would look very ugly.  The ultimate downside target would be 74c, a support level provided by the rising 100wMA.  Although there would be intial support at 80c, such a potentially huge fall in price would be too tempting for short sellers to ignore.

AusGroup impresses.

On Monday, 22 Feb, I said that "AusGroup closed at 57c today on low volume. This is the second black candle day in a row experienced by AusGroup on low volume while the two preceding white candle days happened with relatively higher volume. This is a positive. The MFI has formed a higher low while the MACD continues to pull higher away from the signal line after forming a bullish crossover three sessions ago. Any continuing attempt to move higher will have to overcome resistance provided by a declining 20dMA which is at 59c today."

AusGroup broke that resistance provided by the declining 20dMA which is at 58c today on the back of heavy volume.  MFI has crossed above 50% sharply but is far from overbought.  Resistance is at 63c in the event of a continuation in the upmove.  This resistance is likely to be strong as it is was a candlestick support level in addition to being where the 200dMA is currently flattening out at.  Although the MACD has formed a bullish crossover, it is still below zero and this upmove is probably a great chance for stale bulls to reduce exposure.  Given the nice white candle formed today, there is a good probability that price might continue to move higher tomorrow.  Whether it will close higher or not is harder to say.

AusGroup, Healthway Medical and Golden Agriculture.

AusGroup closed at 57c today on low volume.  This is the second black candle day in a row experienced by AusGroup on low volume while the two preceding white candle days happened with relatively higher volume.  This is a positive.  The MFI has formed a higher low while the MACD continues to pull higher away from the signal line after forming a bullish crossover three sessions ago.  Any continuing attempt to move higher will have to overcome resistance provided by a declining 20dMA which is at 59c today.

Golden Agriculture closed at 55c on the back of lower volume, forming a doji in the process.  It was unable to break a down trending resistance line.  MACD is above zero and MFI formed a higher low, indicating positive momentum and a stronger buying momentum.  However, these are lagging indicators and in a situation where the trend is weak or short lived, they must be treated with care.  The target remains at 59c in the event that immediate resistance is taken out.  The rising 100dMA is still rising and if the price should retreat closer to this level once more, I will buy more.

Healthway Medical's trading volume expanded slightly as it formed a gravestone doji, closing half a cent higher at 15.5c.  MACD seems poised to cross the signal line and zero at the same time, more or less.  This is a very bullish sign.  MFI has moved decisively out of the oversold territory and has more room to move up.  If volume expands meaningfully with a continuing push upwards in price, we could probably see price pushing 17.5c and even retest the previous high of 18.5c. 

STI shows relative strength

The STI exhibited relative strength today, declining 0.44%, even as the HSE crashed 2.59%.  Closing at 2,757.14 keeps the STI within its uptrend channel.

Genting SP held its ground amid a high volume sell off which pushed its price to touch an intra day low of 90c.  Closing at 94c, it's only 1c lower than yesterday's close.  The decline's rapid pace has been thwarted for now.  Almost a black hammer, there is a chance of a rebound next week for this counter.  Resistance is at $1.01, provided by the 38.2% Fibo line.  I see a stronger resistance at $1.04, a candlestick support turned resistance.  It is also the 50% Fibo line.  Any such rebound is an opportunity to reduce exposure.

AusGroup has a black candle day.  The good news is that it happened with much reduced volume.  MACD has formed a bullish crossover but being still below zero, positive momentum has not returned.  MFI has turned down which shows a slowing of buying momentum.

On the weekly chart, we have an inverted white hammer which suggests a probability of price closing higher next week.  The bugbear?  Volume is very low and this does not make any upmove in price sustainable.  A continuing rebound would allow stale bulls to reduce exposure and is likely to meet with resistance for this reason.  The weekly chart confirms that the target of 64c I have identified for AusGroup in the event of a continuing rebound is plausible.  Any long position in AusGroup taken this week is a punt at best.

With the continuing decline today, Golden Agriculture's price action has formed a lower high at 57c.  However, the pullback is on relatively lower volume which leads to a reasonable suggestion that any decline will not be severe.  Having said this, the lack of buying momentum could see the counter drifting lower.  Critical support remains at 50c thereabouts.  It will most likely hold as the rising 100dMA reaches 49c today.  I continue to like the company's fundamentals and will accumulate at supports.

STI, AusGroup, Golden Agriculture and Healthway Medical

STI closed at 2,769.19, down 24.87 points.  It is still within the uptrend channel and above its 100dMA.  Volume is somewhat reduced and the downwards adjustment in the index is nothing alarming at this stage.

AusGroup looks interesting as volume continues to expand for a second day with price moving up to close at 58c today.  MFI is rising strongly and is almost at 50%.  MACD turned up and a bullish crossover with the signal line seems inevitable.  Currently, the declining 20dMA is providing resistance at 59.5c.  If the price action overcomes this, it could move to 64c which is the resistance provided by the 50% Fibo line.  This is also the price level which the descending 50dMA seems on track to meet in the next few sessions.

Golden Agriculture experienced a down day closing at 55c on the back of reduced volume.  MACD is poised to cross above zero which would herald the return of positive momentum.  Gap support at 54c.  My target price for this counter remains unchanged at 59c if the upmove should continue in the near term.

Healthway Medical's price action formed a gravestone doji today.  This is a bearish candlestick. With the MFI and MACD turned up, the expectation is for some continuing push upwards but these momentum oscillators are lagging indicators.  So, we have to take this with a pinch of salt.  If price action does not close above the resistance provided by the descending 20dMA at 15.5c, we want to at least see the rising 50dMA confirmed as a support at 14.5c.  All we can do is to wait and see.

AusGroup closed unchanged

AusGroup closed unchanged at 68.5c, forming an inverted black hammer in the process. This was after forming a doji yesterday. Both candlesticks are signs of a possible reversal. Volume on both days were relatively low which suggests that the selling pressure is probably easing and AusGroup has found support. The flattening 100dMA happens to be at 68.5c. Over a longer term, the MFI is still uptrending and the counter's current weakness might just be temporary. The fast rising 200dMA is a positive. A hedge at 68.5c for someone who does not yet have a position in this counter is not a bad idea. To accumulate, I always like to buy on the way down at every support level. 68.5c looks like one to me. If 68.5c breaks, the next support is at 66c.

Resistance is provided by the rising 200wMA at 74.5c which also happens to be the most recent high achieved on 5 Jan 10. Overcoming this resistance level would give an intial target of 78.5c and an eventual target of 83c, a candlestick support level which broke decisively in June 2008.

Mid-afternoon take: AusGroup

On 9 Jan, I wrote in a post that "AusGroup had a sell signal on the MACD on Thursday (7 Jan). In the near term, price seems set to go lower. Initial support is at 69c, a many times tested candlestick support level. The cluster of rising 20dMA, 50dMA and 100dMA, all within close proximity of each other, should limit downside to 66c which coincides with the 50% Fibo line."AusGroup

AusGroup closed at 68.5c in yesterday's session and is now hugging the 100dMA and the 20dMA supports which are at 68.5c and 68c respectively. MFI has formed a lower high indicating weakened buying momentum and the OBV has gone flat. Despite the ugly black candle formed in the last session, the uptrend is still intact. If the support at 68c gives way, next support is provided by the 50dMA at 66c.

The current uptrend is negated if price closes below 65c this week. From a technical perspective, the probability of this happening is rather low. Having said this, we want to see AusGroup forming a higher low to confirm the uptrend in the next few sessions. The previous low was at 63c on 23 Dec 09.

AusGroup

I counted 9 attempts at searching for information on AusGroup in my blog. So, here is a TA for those who are interested:

AusGroup had a sell signal on the MACD on Thursday. In the near term, price seems set to go lower. Initial support is at 69c, a many times tested candlestick support level. The cluster of rising 20dMA, 50dMA and 100dMA, all within close proximity of each other, should limit downside to 66c which coincides with the 50% Fibo line.

MFI, a momentum oscillator, shows an uptrend in buying momentum as it formed higher lows and higher highs. The OBV shows gradual and continuing accumulation. Seemingly, this counter has support and a probability of a severe downward movement in price is low.

With buying momentum intact over the longer term, breaking 74.5c, the recent high, is a matter of time. That would give an initial target price of 78.5c as provided by the 123.6% Fibo line. Accumulating at supports would give a potential gain of 12% (buy in at 69c) to 19% (buy in at 66c).