OUE Limited: An asset play that could be cheaper?

I have been eyeing OUE Limited since May this year but I haven't bought its stock. What attracted me is the big discount to NAV (NAV/share is $4.04) although its earnings per share is nothing to shout about. In fact, I estimated the PE ratio to be about 30x when I was crunching some numbers.

So, if the NAV is realistic, to me, OUE Limited is an asset play and with asset plays, the question is really whether the value will be unlocked at some point in the future. There is a likelihood that this would happen as OUE Limited hold stakes in OUE H-Trust (43%) and OUE C-REIT (42.5%).



Regular readers know I scribble my research on scrap paper.

A bug bear for OUE Limited now is Twin Peaks. This 99 year leasehold project (from 2010) is a luxury condominium they are developing near Orchard Boulevard in Singapore. They are having a hard time moving unsold units and of the 462 units available, only 20% or so have managed to find buyers.

The condominium is near completion and I think OUE Limited will then have 2 more years to sell all units or face yearly penalties. Already, they have written down the value of Twin Peaks by $105 million in the face of a challenging environment this year.

At an average selling price of about $3,000 psf and a GFA of about 436,000 sq ft (including balconies), I estimate the value of Twin Peaks to be about $1.3 billion, if fully sold. However, I doubt that it is going to happen without a deep price cut if the big discount given by Bukit Sembawang to sell its completed condominium in Cairnhill recently was anything to go by.

To be fair, however, Twin Peaks is just one part of OUE Limited's portfolio. The company owns many commercial properties and if their values are realistic, OUE Limited could turn out to be a very rewarding asset play for investors in time to come when their values are unlocked. When will it happen? Your guess is as good as mine.

Click to enlarge.

Technically, OUE Limited's share price is in a downtrend and it is one that shows no sign of weakening. So, although already trading at a big discount to NAV, I wonder if its share price could sink lower for me to get a dollar for fifty cents.

I wasn't going to blog about OUE Limited until I have initiated a long position, if I do at all. However, reading a blog by Brian Halim gave me a little push to share my thoughts.

Read Brian's blog on OUE Limited: here.

Related posts:
1. OUE H-Trust.
2. OUE C-REIT.

OUE C-REIT.

OUE Limited is spinning off OUE Bayfront in Singapore and Lippo Plaza in Shanghai into a REIT. Seems like OUE Limited is actively recycling capital and trying to catch whatever remaining interest investors might have in a REIT IPO. Just barely half a year ago, they listed OUE Hospitality Trust and I blogged about that here.

OUE C-REIT is the name of the latest offer. It will be priced at 80c a unit and will offer a distribution yield of 6.8% or a DPU of about 5.44c.

I believe that this IPO is a plus for OUE Limited shareholders just like the listing of SPH REIT was good for SPH shareholders. However, I don't think OUE C-REIT is attractive as an investment for the same reason that I thought SPH REIT was not attractive compared to SPH as an investment. You might be interested in that blog post. Read it: here.

I like the fact that OUE Limited has given a commitment to support the REIT by offering assets at a discount to valuation in future. This is something that the Lippo Group has done for LMIR and First REIT as well. After all, it is the same family that is in control of OUE Limited. Yes, OUE Limited is a 55% owned subsidiary of the Lippo Group.

I also like the fact that OUE Limited will retain a 45 to 50% stake in OUE C-REIT which will see their interests more aligned with those of minority unit holders in the REIT since any action taken which might hurt minority unit holders will hurt the sponsor, OUE Limited, most.

Having said this, we have to remember that the sponsor would have reaped most of the benefits from the IPO and the higher distribution yield is a result of income support given by the sponsor. If there were no such support, the distribution yield is actually 5.56%, almost 20% lower.

Over the next couple of years, if the REIT manager is able to fill up all the vacant space in the two initial properties and achieve positive rental reversions in re-leasing, the REIT could deliver a yield of 6.8% without any support.

However, with interest rates set to increase, we could see a heavier debt burden come 2017 when most of the REIT's debt mature. This could wipe out any hope of maintaining the relatively attractive distribution yield now unless unit price of the REIT declined.

The REIT could grow DPU through accretive purchases from its sponsor, of course, but with gearing ratio relatively high at 41% or so now, it would probably have to resort to equity fund raising either in the form of a rights issue or private placements. Unit holders should be prepared for this.

All investments are good at the right price and to invest in OUE C-REIT for income, I would only be interested if it should offer a much higher distribution yield, given the considerations above.

Related posts:
1. A strategy to grow wealth and augment income.
2. 2013 full year income from S-REITs.

OUE Hospitality Trust: Considerations and comparisons.

Some might be more interested in OUE Hospitality Trust than SPH Trust because the distribution yield the former has promised is higher at 7.46% compared to the latter's 5.79%. 

Although the two are not strictly comparable since they are holding different types of real estate, let us look past that for now and just concentrate on the numbers to see which one is a better deal.

Mandarin Hotel.

OUE Hospitality Trust is being offered at a small discount to NAV while SPH REIT is being offered at a small premium to NAV. Oh, I like a discount!

OUE Hospitality Trust is going to have a gearing level of some 32.8% while SPH REIT's gearing level is 27.3%. Oh, I like SPH REIT more now because its gearing level is lower.

Leverage, of course, makes it harder to see the underlying yield. If we were to remove leverage and assume that there was none, we see that OUE Hospitality Trust approximately yields 5.62% while SPH REIT yields 4.55%. The former still gives us 1.1% more a year!

SPH REIT's Clementi Mall.

OUE Hospitality Trust has 2 properties and apparently they have 44 years left to their leases. SPH REIT has 2 properties too. The Paragon will have a fresh 99 years lease while Clementi Mall has a few years lesser than that. I like longer leases, for sure.

So, although OUE Hospitality Trust is able to generate 1.1% more return per year compared to SPH REIT, the life of its assets is less than half of SPH REIT's, assuming the status quo is maintained.

Ariake Sunroute Hotel

OUE Hospitality Trust is a stapled security and not a REIT per se. I have blogged about Ascendas Hospitality Trust before which is also a stapled security. For anyone who might want to find out more about this, I have provided the link at the end of this blog.

Like OUE Hospitality Trust, Ascendas Hospitality Trust also had its IPO priced at 88c.

Ascendas Hospitality Trust last traded at 85.5c which is still at a slight premium to its NAV. At 85.5c, it has an estimated distribution yield of 8.57% and a gearing level of about 35%. 90% of its assets are in Australia and Japan. These are freehold in nature!

AK is just talking to himself.


Related posts:
1. Ascendas Hospitality Trust.
2. SPH or SPH REIT?