3Q 2018 passive income (non-REITs): RHT.

In 3Q 2018, I also added to my investment in RHT Health Trust at 72c a unit when Mr. Market got the jitters and the unit price plunged.

The reason for a nervous Mr. Market could be due a cautionary note issued by RHT's external auditors on its weak balance sheet.

I received messages from readers and my reply to each and every one was more or less the same.

"The cautionary note really was not saying anything new nor was it earth shattering."

If we sell simply because the share price is declining and we are fearful, that is probably a bad reason.

Warren Buffett said the dumbest reason to buy something is because the price has gone up.

Probably, the dumbest reason to sell something is because the price has gone down.

If we sell because we think that RHT cannot continue as a going concern just because of the cautionary note from the auditors, that is probably a bad reason too.





However, if we sell because we think that RHT could not reasonably be expected to refinance their debt, that is a good reason.

I didn't happen to think that way.

Anyway, peace of mind is priceless.

So, although we should have mental fortitude and the right attitude as investors, we should do what gives us peace of mind.







In late August, RHT announced that sale of its assets to its parent would go on.

After repayment of external borrowings, estimated net consideration per unit would be 82.5c.

Unitholders expected to receive about 76.6c per unit. (See comments section for more on this.)

The proceeds will help to replenish my war chest.

Watch video: 
"Malaysia's IHH Healthcare Wins Fortis Bid At Rs 170 Per Share."






See:
1. Disposal of entire asset portfolio.
2. Results of EGM held on 26 Sep 18.

Money from RHT Health Trust past and future. (We are responsible for our own financial future.)

I want to share an interesting video before starting on the blog proper.

There is a lot of wisdom in this 5 minutes video clip and, unless we are born with a spoon made of some precious metal in our mouth, everyone, especially the young, should watch it.

1. Delay gratification (i.e. discretionary consumption),

2. understand the danger of taking on too much debt,

3. save money (that is what 401K means in USA and, for us, it would be the CPF and SRS),

4. start investing early,

5. let time and compound interest work their magic!

We are responsible for our own financial future.






This blog is in response to a recent comment from a reader:

AK says...

Hi Ruby,

For RHT, I believe that it will become a shell company just like what happened to Saizen REIT after they sold their portfolio of assets, if you remember.

RHT's shareholders will receive the bulk of the proceeds from the sale of the Trust's assets but RHT would still be around.






In the case of Saizen REIT, it was finally liquidated and any remaining money was distributed to shareholders.

It could happen to RHT in future or it might not.

Just have to wait and see.

But this deal really helps to crystalise for RHT shareholders on what each unit in RHT is worth.

So, if readers bought into RHT like I did in more recent times at 72c per unit thereabouts, they will be OK.





We should also bear in mind that there is still residual value after the proposed special dividend to be paid to shareholders.

What about investors who got in earlier?

Well, I expect that their investment in RHT would have done quite well.

Of course, you would remember that I first bought into RHT at 88c a unit back in August 2015.






That earlier investment has received income distributions over the years and also a special dividend of about 25c per unit in 2016.

We booked a very nice capital gain back then.

This time, an estimated 76.6c per unit will be distributed.

If not for the rather weak Indian Rupee, the number would be higher.

Without taking into consideration the regular periodic income distributions received in the past, the two special distributions together amount to more than a dollar per unit.

Like before, there is capital gain for us in this proposed special distribution but it would also include the return of our investment capital.

The returns are not stellar like in the case of Saizen REIT or Croesus Retail Trust, but, the outcome is not a bad one.

Investing in good income generating assets is comforting because our investments should become safer over time.






Related post:
1. Increased investment in RHT (Early 2017).
2. Initiated position in RHT at 88c (2015).
See announcement by RHT:
Disposal of assets.

Religare Health Trust to be bought for $966m.

Religare Health Trust's unit price spiked after news that Fortis is seeking to delist the business trust was released earlier this morning.

Surging to as high as 96.5c a unit, it was a 19% increase from the previous trading session in a matter of minutes.





"In an exchange filing on Wed morning (Nov 15), RHT Health Trust Manager Pte Ltd said it has received a proposal from Fortis to acquire all the sale securities held by RHT Singapore's wholly-owned subsidiaries, Fortis Global Healthcare Infrastructure Pte Ltd and RHT Healthtrust Services Pte Ltd.

"The trustee-manager has not declared a distribution for the six months ended Sept 30, as it has not received certain service fees and interest income on the CCDs from the relevant Fortis entities; Fortis is proposing for these to be paid alongside the purchase consideration."

Read article here:
Fortis proposes to buy RHT Health Trust's entire asset portfolio for S$966m





With about 810 million units in issue, if this goes through, a back of the envelope calculation shows that each unit could be getting more than a dollar.

Although it seems that I will be losing another passive income generator, I cannot really complain if it is a more than fair offer.

For those who are thinking of punting, please remember the risk involved.

If the purchase should fail, unit price would probably take a dive back down.




Related post:
Increased investment in RHT by 150%.

Investor psychology and beating our fears.

This blog is a follow up to an earlier blog titled:

Increased investment in Religare Health Trust by more than 150%.




This is in response to a request by Reader A.

READER A.

 We should expect volatility in prices. 

In fact, we should welcome it as investors. 

If we do not have the stomach for volatility, stocks could be a bad place for our money.

READER B.

In a situation like that, apart from having an idea of what is a decent price to pay, how do we prepare ourselves mentally to pull the trigger?

Ask: 

To what extent can we afford to be totally wrong?




After all, if we are totally wrong, we could lose all the money we invested. 

Can we stomach that?

It is all about having peace of mind as investors. 

If you have forgotten or have never read my blog on that before. 

Read it: HERE.




Remember:

1. Don't use borrowed funds.

2. Don't use funds earmarked for other purposes.

Use only money we can afford to lose and meant for investing for income.

Even though it is money we can afford to lose, ask: 

How much of it can we lose without losing our minds if things should go wrong?




Of course, we want to avoid being wrong. 

We try our best to get our facts and reasoning correct.  

However, despite our best effort, we could still be wrong.




We want to be greedy when others are fearful but we don't want to be so greedy that we throw prudence out the window.

The resulting monetary loss from being wrong must be something we can stomach easily.

Otherwise, don't be in doubt. 

We really should stay out.

Increased investment in Religare Health Trust (RHT) by more than 150%.

Religare Health Trust's (RHT) latest results missed expectations but yesterday's massive decline in its unit price was surprising and, I thought, excessive.

The sale of a 51% stake in FHTL impacted RHT's income. 

Distributing the proceeds as a special dividend also meant that its NAV per unit declined to 83.8c. 




DPU for the quarter ended 31 Dec 16 was 1.25c, a big year on year decline of almost 31% but most of it should be expected because of a reduced contribution from FHTL. 

Without accounting for this, however, DPU would still have reduced by a few percentage points (i.e. pretending that RHT did not sell a 51% stake in FHTL). 

Trying to figure out how much is a reasonable price to pay for RHT, I referred to my long time healthcare REIT investment, First REIT. 




At $1.27 per unit, First REIT offered a distribution yield of about 6.7%. 

RHT's gearing level is 26.6% while First REIT's gearing level is 31.1% (perpetual bonds lowered gearing ratio from 34.4% to 30.0% last year). 

So, First REIT should offer a higher yield since it is more highly geared.

Nonetheless, if we expect a quarterly DPU of 1.25c from RHT to be the norm from now (however unlikely), with an annual DPU of 5c, to get a 6.7% distribution yield or more, a unit price of 74.5c or lower is required.

Although surprised by the speed and depth of the plunge in unit price, as I already had an idea of what was probably a pretty reasonable price to pay, I simply acted and more than doubled my investment in RHT.

All else being equal, the additional investment I made in RHT will offer a distribution yield of about 6.9% which is probably quite decent for a healthcare REIT now.

One reason why I decided to invest in RHT was discovering how India was not doing enough to provide healthcare for her people. 




I found out from watching an interview with an Indian Nobel prize winner. 

My independent research since then tells me again and again that there is a lot of room for growth in India's health care sector. 

An example of my research:

Source: The Hindu, 13 Sep 16.

I believe that RHT's income would improve in the next couple of years not only because of increasing fees but also because almost 600 beds will be added by development projects to be completed as well as asset enhancement initiatives (AEI) in existing assets.





A child cannot throw a tantrum forever because the child will run out of energy, grow tired and stop. 

Mr. Market is no different.

Source: DBS Research, 7 Feb 17.

Read the companion blog on investor psychology: HERE. 
First REIT's presentation: HERE.
RHT's presentation: HERE.

2016 full year passive income from non-REITs (Part 2).

UPDATE (20 Jan 17):
When I shared my full year results for non-REITs last year, I wondered if Religare Health Trust (RHT) might be privatised. Then, with Accordia Golf Trust's (AGT) sponsor being bought over by Korean investors, MBK, many asked what is going to happen to AGT? A reader, betta man, shared this with me:

https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/accordia-golf-agt-sp-high-conviction-family-office-favourite

There is nothing wrong with speculation as long as we know we are speculating. Me? I am quite happy to hold on to my investment.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

As promised, this is Part 2 of a very long blog post. If you have not done so, read Part 1: HERE.
Let us start this blog post with some gossip. Wah! Is Religare Health Trust going to be delisted?

You say, I say, they say. Hmm. ;p

Anyway, three big things happened in the non-REIT space for me.

1. A big thing was receiving a much larger than usual distribution from Religare Health Trust (RHT) which I initiated a long position in sometime last year at 88c a unit. The special dividend (which gave me a yield of almost 30% based on cost) came from them disposing a share of an income generating asset due to regulatory requirement. Including regular distributions this year, RHT has been a very rewarding investment for me. I am quite happy to continue holding on to my investment in the Trust as it continues to generate income. 
See this chat with a reader:

2. Another big thing that took place in the non-REIT space was the internalisation of Croesus Retail Trust's management. There was a rights issue because of this. I took up my entitlement and also applied for excess rights. The rights units were priced at slightly under 80c a unit (and will enjoy a distribution yield of almost 9%). The size of my investment in the Trust increased by almost 6% as I took advantage of the exercise.

3. The third big thing is the offer to privatise ARA Asset Management at $1.78 a share. This is likely to be concluded by the middle of next year and based on my entry prices, I would get to enjoy reasonably attractive capital gains of 35% to 78% although I would miss the regular dividends.

As I had a fixed deposit maturing and with the much lower interest rates offered by the banks this year for fixed deposits compared to last year (1.1% per annum at UOB for 13 months, for example), I decided to buy more ARA shares at $1.71 a share in late November.

I believe that this is possibly an arbitrage opportunity which could give me an "interest rate" of about 4% over a period of, maybe, half a year. 

It could be higher because ARA pays dividends twice a year and another payout could happen in April or May. If it should happen, I could see a DPS of 2c to 3c if the privatisation process is not completed by then.

Of course, to be realistic, there is a chance that the offer might not be accepted as I know some shareholders feel that the offer of $1.78 a share still undervalues ARA. 

In such an instance, I would be quite contented to hold on to my latest purchase to receive regular dividends (for a 3% dividend yield based on a DPS of 5c or about 50% of EPS) as I also believe ARA is worth more and that its shares should trade at a higher price. 

Delist or stay listed, I am happy with ARA either way.

Total dividend income from non-REITs in 2016: 


S$ 105,641.29


This translates to S$ 8,803.44 per month.

Apart from dividend income, regular readers know that I used to trade stocks more actively. Earlier this month, I revealed on my Facebook wall as well as the comments section here in ASSI:

Source: A wealth building strategy that has worked for AK.

Although I enjoyed some capital gains from a few trades this year (and the most recent trades being in DBS as its share price rose significantly for a few weeks), it is due to an emphasis on investing for income that has ensured further improvement in my financial health.

On this note, I will now say something about APTT because it seems that many readers were attracted to APTT by the relatively high distribution yield of 10% and bought into it. Now, many of them are worried because the unit price plunged.

If we know the value of a stock, we would know if the price makes sense. If we didn't know the value of the stock, we would never know if the price makes sense. If we don't know this, price movements would make us emotional.

I said before that APTT's past DPU of 8c was unsustainable. Although the management reduced DPU to 6.5c, I said that it might be more prudent to have a DPU of 4c which, I felt, was more sustainable. That was because 4c would be closer to APTT's EPS. 

At 37.5c a unit, I decided to add to my investment in APTT recently. I know what some people might ask and here is my answer: 

I don't know if the unit price will decline further but if it should, knowing what I know and all else being equal, I would probably be buying more.

Investing in APTT, we are not investing for growth. We want its income generation ability. If you thought you were investing for growth when you got into APTT, you might have the wrong tool. 

Know what we want to do and use the right tools.

For those of us who invested in APTT for income, ask if anything has happened which has damaged its ability to generate income significantly and, if something has happened, is the damage long lasting? Then, do what you have to do.

Know what am I going to say? 

Yes, if AK can do it, so can you!

HAPPY NEW YEAR!

And I hope you have found my blogs this year to be inspiring and helpful on your own journey towards financial freedom.

Let me know if I should continue talking to myself next year. ;)

LOL. From my FB wall (1 Jan 17).

Related posts:

1. 1H 2016 income from non-REITs.

2. Breadtalk, OCK and QAF.

3. Made $1m investing for income.
4. 2016 FY income from S-REITs.

Outlook for 2017 

(by OCBC Investment Research):

While the overhang from Brexit and the US presidential election is over for now, heading into 2017, we expect continued weakness in oil-related stocks, softness in the property sector and higher impairment charges for banks to be some of the factors that will dent investor confidence in the Singapore market. While interest rates are likely to head higher, we believe the hunt for yield is not completely over and investors are still likely to accumulate quality high-dividend stocks. We expect banks to report low- to mid-single-digit earnings growth, and the outlook for the residential property sector is still soft after numerous quarters of decline and with no clear pickup in demand or selling prices. The oil and gas sector is still saddled with refinancing issues as well as a lack of orders and earnings. The telecommunications sector is also facing the threat of a new player.

-----------------------------------------
Watch from the 22nd minute for the discussion on Singapore banks:

2016 full year passive income from non-REITs (Part 1).

During an "Evening with AK and friends", someone asked if I was going to sell my stocks as market guru Hu Li Yang was expecting a stock market crash. I said we should stay invested as the market was still awashed in liquidity and money will go to where it is treated best. See: Evening with AK and friends.



So, what did I do in 2H 2016 in the non-REITs space? I made various purchases but, mostly, I was buying DBS shares. Besides DBS, I also bought some shares of OUE Limited, PREH, Wilmar, OCBC, Breadtalk and Starhub.

(I am impressed by DBS' cost management. Their cost to income ratio keeps declining.)

The narrative for investing in OCBC was similar to the one for DBS. Although all three local banks' stocks looked cheap to me, my preference was for DBS because of the perceived cheaper valuation.


The reason for me putting some money in OCBC's stock was mostly because my long position in DBS grew so big (and I do mean BIG) that it was prudent for me to step on the brakes. 




Using a strategy I employ frequently for stocks which I am highly confident in, my relatively large position in DBS included both a core position for income as well as a trading position.

Why not UOB? 


Well, I think UOB has been a bit laid back. I am not saying that it is a bad thing, mind you, but its growth story seems less exciting.

Of course, some might say that DBS and OCBC have been more "adventurous" but I like to think that they are more enterprising.

I feel that growing their wealth management business more aggressively will continue to set them apart from UOB as that business contributes more and more to their earnings.

Next, Wilmar. I continue to like Wilmar's business strategy and their very impressive scale of operations. It is an amazingly complex business and, to be quite honest, I have no way to analyse most of its operations.

However, when Mr. Kuok thinks their shares are cheap and bought more at $3.00 a share, that was a pretty clear signal to me. At that price, we would also be buying at around its NAV which seems conservative.

Source: RHB.

Having accumulated a rather significant long position in Wilmar in recent years, I am quite happy to wait while being paid to do so.

Now, for OUE Limited. I blogged about my rationale for increasing exposure to OUE Limited when I shared my numbers for 1H 2016 (see related post #1). Back then, I added at $1.51 a share. In 2H 2016, I added more at $1.53 a share.

Twin Peaks.

My decision to increase exposure was mostly driven by the even larger discount to NAV from the time I initiated a long position. 

There is much value in OUE Limited but waiting for value to be unlocked requires a lot of patience. Well, remember, a wise man did say before that the big money is in the waiting.

Along similar line of reasoning, I also added to my investment in PREH at 80c a share a few days ago. This is the lowest price I have ever paid for PREH. The last time I bought any PREH shares was more than a year ago. 

It is interesting to me that Mr. Ron Sim, Mr. Pua S.G. and Mr. Kuok K.H. have been increasing their stakes in PREH on price weakness. 

PREH is an asset play but it is also a growth story. It is not for the faint hearted.

PREH

As for Breadtalk, I have a more recent blog post on my decision to initiate a position. I compared it to Old Chang Kee and QAF Limited, both of which I have been a shareholder of for many years. 

If you are interested to know why I had a change of heart and decided to initiate a smallish long position in Breadtalk, go to the related posts at the end of this blog post (see related post #2).

Starhub. In June last year, when I did a technical analysis for Starhub, I said:

"The widening of the Bollinger Bands indicates increased volatility. The OBV shows selling pressure. The MACD is declining and shows no sign of a positive divergence. These are all on the weekly chart which suggests that continuing weakness in the longer term should not surprise us." Read blog post: here.


We saw Starhub's stock price sinking and I nibbled  again in late November. I feel that Mr. Market is right to be concerned but might be overly pessimistic about Starhub's prospects with the introduction of a 4th telco.

There is plenty of speculation now but, to be realistic, it will take time for the new entrant (which is expected to enter the market in 2018) to gain traction and it remains to be seen how successful it will be.




Back in June 2015, I also said that SPH and Starhub were similar:

"They could see earnings come under pressure for different reasons but that makes them similar too as the challenges are very real.... I would like to have some buffer in terms of dividend yield buying into SPH and Starhub because I am investing in them primarily for income and not growth." Read blog post: here.

I believe I am getting a much thicker cushion buying Starhub at under $2.80 a share and that was what I did.

As for SPH, let me share here a recent conversation with a reader:

I have been a SPH shareholder for many years and I am happy enough to be paid while I wait.
---------------------
As this turned out to be a very long blog post, I chopped it up into two parts. Read Part 2: HERE.
Related posts:

1. 1H 2016 income from non-REITs.

2. Breadtalk, OCK and QAF.

3. Made $1m investing for income.
4. 2016 FY income from S-REITs.

2015 full year income from non-REITs.

Before I reveal the numbers, let me talk to myself about what I did in 4Q 2015, investments wise.

I re-initiated a long position in ARA as I felt that its stock price declined to a reasonably attractive level. 

ARA's rights issue which followed not long after was unexpected but I took up my entitlement and applied for excess rights as I looked at it as an opportunity to buy more on the cheap. I will probably buy more if the stock declines further in price.

Of course, those who follow my blog will also remember another rights issue and that was by Croesus Retail Trust. I too participated fully in that rights issue.

A back of the envelope calculation shows that Croesus Retail Trust is now trading at a 10% distribution yield. 

Croesus Retail Trust has rather high gearing level but if we were to take that away, Croesus Retail Trust is actually still generating more than a 5% distribution yield (i.e. non-leveraged yield) which I think is very attractive for a portfolio of mostly freehold retail properties in Japan. 

As the Trust's unit price declined, I added to my position again in the middle of December at 78c a unit.

I also increased my investment in Accordia Golf Trust as its stock price declined. The last time I did this was in mid-December at 51c a unit.

Investing in Accordia Golf Trust, we must realise that weather plays an important part in its performance. So, we have to expect its revenue to fluctuate quite a bit seasonally, much like investing in hospitality REITs.

With sentiments pretty negative, if Mr. Market were to offer me meaningfully lower prices, I would probably be buying more.

I also did a bit of trading in 4Q 2015. I reduced my long positions in Wilmar and ST Engineering as their stock prices recovered. That gave me some trading gains for the quarter.

I don't trade very much anymore as it requires a bit more work. Now, I might not even look at the stock market for several days in a row.

I added to my long position again in ST Engineering as its stock price declined by more than 10% from my recent selling price. 


ST Engineering is still one investment for income and growth. I definitely want to buy more if Mr. Market goes into a depression.

For those who do not follow my comments section, I initiated a smallish long position in DBS. Some know that I have been thinking of buying into the three local banks for a while and have been waiting for their stock prices to become cheaper.

I chose DBS first because it was trading at the smallest premium to NAV compared to OCBC and UOB. There is also consensus that DBS would be the biggest beneficiary of rising interest rates.

I also added to my investment in SingTel as its stock price declined. We invest in SingTel, Starhub and M1 because they are defensive income generators but with SingTel, there is also a nice element of growth.

Finally, I added to my long position in APTT this month after having left it alone since its inception. The rapid plunge in APTT's unit price up till middle of December seemed excessive to me even though I have mentioned before that a DPU of 8c a year is unsustainable in the longer run.


A much lower DPU of between 4c to 5c would probably be more sustainable for APTT. So, adding to my long position at 63c a unit, I am expecting a more realistic distribution yield of 6.3% to 7.9%.


A more recent development was an expression of interest by a party to acquire Ascendas Hospitality Trust which I included in my income portfolio in 3Q 2014. I have added to my investment on a few occasions since then, as and when its unit price declined.

The last time I increased exposure to Ascendas Hospitality Trust was on 24 August 2015 at 58.5c a unit. With an estimated annual DPU of 5.5c, I was looking at a distribution yield of almost 10%.

Although I hope that the offer is going to be at a fairly attractive premium to valuation, I am aware that if the Trust should be taken private, my income from non-REITs next year would take a hit.

Very safe to show hand like this.

Including my first income distribution from Religare Health Trust (RHT), dividends from my investments in non-REITs in Q4 brings my income in 2015 from them to a grand total of S$76,804.69.

This works out to be about S$6,400.00 a month.

Including the distributions from S-REITs this year, I am pretty satisfied with the total income generated by my investment portfolio.


Related post:
1. ARA: Re-initiating long position.
2. Croesus Retail Trust: Rights.
3. Trading ST Engineering.
4. Religare Health Trust: Entered at 88c.
5. 9M 2015 income from non-REITs.

9M 2015 passive income from non-REITs.

Some wonder if Mr. Market could go into a depression? I don't know but I do know that many stocks became much more attractively priced in the last three months.

Consistent with my strategy to diversify my portfolio to reduce reliance on S-REITs for income, I added to my long positions in the following as their stock prices declined more significantly recently:

1. Accordia Golf Trust

2. Ascendas Hospitality Trust

3. ST Engineering

4. Starhub

5. SembCorp Industries

In the last three months, I also initiated long positions in the following as investments for income:

5. VICOM
"A 15x PE ratio would give us a fair value of $5.36 or so per share."

6. Religare Health Trust
"Trust has demonstrated its ability to improve its revenue organically quite strongly which makes up for the expiration of the sponsor's waiver to their share of the distributable income."

7. King Wan
"King Wan is in a net cash position and it also has an order book that would provide earnings visibility until 2018."

Finally, I accumulated the following stocks which have a bit of an income investing angle but the main reason is because I think they are worth much more and at lower prices, they became even more attractive:

8. Wilmar

9. OUE Limited

If you should be interested, you could search ASSI for more of my blog posts on these stocks and why I decided to add them to my portfolio when I did.

Of course, stocks could stay undervalued for a long time but regularly receiving some dividend in the meantime makes the waiting more palatable. I like to be paid while I wait.

If you suspect that I have dipped into my war chest in the last three months, you are right. 

Could we see another big decline in the stock market? We could and we should be ready. So, being cautious, I have not exhausted my war chest.

I have a couple of fixed deposits maturing next month in October and I will probably be keeping the money close at hand instead of putting it in another fixed deposit or two.

In Q3 2015, the following non-REITs paid dividends:

1. SATS

2. Old Chang Kee

3. APTT

4. SingTel

5. SCI

6. SMM

7. Wilmar

8. NeraTel

9. ST Engineering

10. QAF Ltd.

11. Starhub

12. HongLeong Finance

13. Croesus Retail Trust

For the first 9 months of 2015, total passive income received from non-REITs: S$ 57,747.59. 

This works out to be S$ 6,416.40 per month.

Have a shopping list and be ready to pounce if Mr. Market becomes depressed.

Related post:

6M 2015 passive income from non-REITs.

Religare Health Trust: Initiated long position at 88c.

I avoided investing in Religare Health Trust although I felt quite positive about the healthcare industry in general.

I avoided investing in the Trust because I was concerned about the weakness of the Indian Rupee against the Singapore Dollar. I was also concerned about the financial engineering involved to make its distribution yield more attractive to investors at its IPO when units in the Trust were offered at 90c a piece.

What financial engineering?

In the middle of last year, I shared a conversation I had on FB that the sponsor waiver to income distributions ended on 31 March 2014. The sponsor held some 28% of the units. So, without the waiver, a proportional decline in DPU for other unit holders should be expected. Of course, if Mr. Market had expected the high yield to be maintained, the Trust's unit price could then decline.

Well, we now know that Religare Health Trust's unit price went on to touch a high of $1.14 on 6 February 2015. Astounding!

The main reason is probably because the Trust has demonstrated its ability to improve its revenue organically quite strongly which makes up for the expiration of the sponsor's waiver to their share of the distributable income. This is quite impressive. Additionally, a gearing level of only 15% gives the Trust ample debt headroom for inorganic growth too.

I know from reliable sources that India's public healthcare system is severely underfunded. So, for those who can afford to pay more and there is a growing middle class in India, they are willing to pay for better private healthcare. This probably explains Religare Health Trust's pricing power.

I have initiated a long position today at 88c a unit which is some 23% lower than the high of $1.14 seen in February this year.

Religare Health Trust distributes income half yearly. Its last DPU was 3.71c. Annualising this would give us a distribution yield of 8.43% with an entry price of 88c a unit.

Sentiments are quite negative about Asian currencies now and we could see Mr. Market selling down the Trust if sentiments worsen. If there should be another meaningful decline in its unit price, I would probably be increasing my exposure to the Trust.

Related post:
Religare Health Trust: Opinions?