A friend told me recently that Noble Group was 9c a share in 1999. It closed the 2009 at $3.25. That's a 36x returns over 10 years!!! I've not done any research on any financial engineering the company might have done in the last 10 years. So, this observation might be too simplistic.
Looking at the numbers, I find valuation for Noble rather mind boggling. To buy at the current valuation, one must be extremely optimistic about the future earnings of the company. Well, Jim Rogers thinks that prices of commodities will continue to rise in the years ahead. If we believe him, then, it might be better to buy directly into commodities or companies producing these commodities rather than commodities trading companies. I remember Musicwhiz did some FA on Noble and Olam. So, I shan't go into details here. The link to his blog is in my blogroll. As is my style, if the FA fails, I do not bother to go on to the next step which is to do a TA.
However, what worries me is that even some usually very cautious investors I know are euphoric about Noble. From a TA standpoint, if the trend is not broken, continue riding it. Having said this, Noble's rapid climb in price does not look sustainable. So, I'm doing a TA out of curiosity. The negative divergence between price and volume on the weekly chart is quite plain to see. After breaking multiple wMAs in May, it tested the 100wMA support in July and off it went hugging the upper limits of the Bollinger bands since. The shorter term 20wMA has pulled away from the longer term 100wMA and 200wMA. The spread is now quite susbtantial. Using two sets of Fibo lines, it looks as if the current price of $3.25 is at resistane. A pullback is on the cards but with such positive sentiments bouying the counter, the 20wMA, at $2.70 this week, might just be able to support the price. That would be a 15% pullback. To my friends who are vested, stay vigilant. If the 20wMA breaks, there is quite a fair bit to fall.
PRIVACY POLICY
Featured blog.
1M50 CPF millionaire in 2021!
Ever since the CPFB introduced a colorful pie chart of our CPF savings a few years ago, I would look forward to mine every year like a teena...
Past blog posts now load week by week. The old style created a problem for some as the system would load 50 blog posts each time. Hope the new style is better. Search archives in box below.
Archives
Pageviews since Dec'09
Recent Comments
Get this Recent Comments Widget
ASSI's Guest bloggers
- boon sun (1)
- Elsie (1)
- Elvin H. Liang (1)
- ENZA (3)
- EY (7)
- FunShine (5)
- Invest Apprentice (2)
- Jean (1)
- JK (2)
- Kai Xiang (1)
- Kenji FX (2)
- Klein (2)
- LS (2)
- Matt (3)
- Matthew Seah (18)
- Mike (6)
- Ms. Y (2)
- Raymond Ng (1)
- Ryan (1)
- Serejouir (1)
- skipper (1)
- Solace (13)
- Song StoneCold (2)
- STE (9)
- TheMinimalist (4)
- Vic (1)
Resources & Blogs.
- 5WAVES
- AlpacaInvestments
- Bf Gf Money Blog
- Bully the Bear
- Cheaponana
- Clueless Punter
- Consumer Alerts
- Dividend simpleton
- Financial Freedom
- Forever Financial Freedom
- GH Chua Investments
- Help your own money.
- Ideas on investing in SG.
- Invest Properly Leh
- Investment Moats
- Investopedia
- JK Fund
- MoneySense (MAS)
- Next Insight
- Oddball teen's mind.
- Propwise.sg - Property
- Scg8866t Stockinvesting
- SG Man of Leisure
- SG Young Investment
- Sillyinvestor.
- SimplyJesMe
- Singapore Exchange
- Singapore IPOs
- STE's Investing Journey
- STI - Stocks Info
- T.U.B. Investing
- The Sleepy Devil
- The Tale of Azrael
- TheFinance
- Turtle Investor
- UOB Gold & Silver
- Wealth Buch
- Wealth Journey
- What's behind the numbers?
Showing posts with label commodities. Show all posts
Showing posts with label commodities. Show all posts
Noble Group
Sunday, January 3, 2010Posted by AK71 at 1:34 PM 4 comments
Labels:
commodities,
FA,
Jim Rogers,
Noble Group,
TA
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Monthly Popular Blog Posts
-
In recent times, I have found it much easier to talk to myself on YouTube. It is faster than blogging. This explains the greater number of v...
-
Another quarter has gone by and it is time for another update. For a change, I will reveal the numbers first. 3Q 2024 passive income: $85.2...
-
It has been more than a week since my last blog post. Things have settled into a new normal for me. In this new normal, my expenses have inc...
-
I produced a YouTube video yesterday after someone alerted me to buy some bank stocks. I thought the stock market had crashed. Did not look ...
-
It has been quite a while since I last blogged about my largest investments. The last time I published such a blog was in January 2023. So, ...
All time ASSI most popular!
-
A reader pointed me to a thread in HWZ Forum which discussed about my CPF savings being more than $800K. He wanted to clarify certain que...
-
The plan was to blog about this together with my quarterly passive income report (4Q 2018) but I decided to take some time off from Neverwin...
-
Reader says... AK sifu.. Wah next year MA up to 57200... Excited siah.. Can top up again to get tax relief. Can I ask u if the i...
-
It has been a pretty long break since my last blog. I have also been spending a lot less time engaging readers both in my blog and on Face...
-
I thought of not blogging about my 2Q 2020 passive income till a couple of weeks later because Mod 19 of Neverwinter, Avernus, just went liv...