Golden Agriculture still burning bright?

I have always disliked candles with long wicks on top. They suggest to me that the candles are burning up and that not much burning time is left. There is no gap up for Golden Agriculture today and price action formed a white candle with a wick on top which is almost as long as the body of the candle. There is increased trading volume today but that managed to push the price up to close only 1c higher. That the buying momentum is slowing down can be inferred from the levelling MFI, which is still firmly entrenched in the overbought region.

The price of crude palm oil (CPO) fell today to RM 2,630, down RM 72 or 2.66%. This likely dampened sentiments. A correction is expected after a strong run up but I feel that any correction should be short term in nature and presents opportunity for accumulation.

Eventual target price for Golden Agriculture remains at 62c but with weakened sentiments, flattening momentum and the many minor resistance levels along the way, it would be wise to reduce exposure as a hedge. Gap support is at 54c and this coincides with the 123.6% Fibo line.

SPH - A chance to accumulate?

On 2 Jan 2010, I mentioned in a post that I'm in no hurry to accumulate more SPH shares at current prices. On SPH's weekly chart, the declining 200wMA provides resistance at $3.80 and I would like to divest partially if its price moves to touch the 200wMA. Unfortunately, this did not happen. For a recap on what I said then, please see Rethinking SPH.

Today, SPH's price action on the daily chart formed a wickless black candle which crashed through both 20dMA and 50dMA before stopping at the rising 100dMA at $3.60 which happens to coincide with a 61.8% Fibo line. If the price breaks through the 100dMA, the 50% Fibo line provides support at $3.52. This happens to be a many times tested candlestick support and resistance level. A stronger support would be at $3.45. Rising 200dMA should limit further downside at $3.30.

MACD is poised to do a bearish crossover. MFI has formed a lower high indicating a lack of buying momentum. OBV has been declining steadily which shows distribution.

I like SPH for reasons stated in the earlier post. The current technical weakness might just present opportunities to accumulate SPH shares and I would do so at a price closer to $3.52. In the event that this support breaks, I would buy more at $3.45. For anyone who has yet to own any SPH shares and would like to do so, a hedge at $3.60 is not unthinkable as nothing is for sure. Remember that this would be a hedge. Don't break your piggy bank.