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Reading the signs

Tuesday, January 12, 2010

Are we seeing the beginnings of a correction? The European markets are now in negative territory. U.S. futures are also down as of now. I personally feel that we are missing a much needed correction. A correction will be good as it shakes out the weaker holders. It also allows unwinding of overbought conditions and lets serious investors accumulate more at lower prices. This gives a more solid platform for further advances in future.

For the counters I'm actively watching, there is nothing remarkable. So, I'm just going to list my observations here:

Saizen REIT:
There is no follow through on the MFI today. The uptick in buying momentum seen yesterday fizzled out today. 17c remains the resistance to watch while downside support is seen at 15.5c. All the MAs on the daily chart are rising with the exception of the 100dMA which is flat. With all the MAs clustering closer together, there is limited downside in this counter but I am still waiting for a pullback closer to support before accumulating more.

Healthway Medical
We have a sell signal on the MACD today on the daily chart. The MFI has turned down, indicating a reduction in buying momentum but the index is still in the overbought territory and should have some way to fall. The price action has finally detached from the upper limits of the Bollinger bands as it closed at 18.5c today. Initial support is at 16.5c. I will accumulate at every support level on the way down just like how I sold at every resistance level on the way up.

Golden Agriculture
The chart is similar to Healthway's. We have a sell signal on the MACD and the MFI has turned down although it's still in the overbought territory. Price action formed an ugly black candle on rather high volume. Closing under 62c, the previous target price and resistance, is ominous. Initial support is at a round number, 60c. If that breaks, a strong support band is to be found at 52c to 54c.

SPH
Although SPH averted a sell signal on the MACD, price action formed a devilish inverted cross, a bearish candlestick pattern. MFI is still rangebound even though it has moved to the upper end of the range identified in my earlier TA while OBV has turned down again. I like SPH but I will wait a bit more to accumulate at a lower price.

Healthway Medical: A beautiful symmetry

Monday, January 11, 2010

Healthway Medical closed 0.5c higher at 19c today on much reduced volume. MFI has flattened in the overbought region and OBV inched up ever so slightly. I am a believer in chart patterns. See how the cup formation troughed at 9.5c and topped out at 14.5c? The target price in case of a breakout of the top of the formation is just a projection of the trough to the top and beyond which gives us 19.5c. This target price was reached in just one week from the midpoint of the cup pattern at 12c. Fast and furious indeed. Will it find fuel to extend the run or will it soon turn lower? It is quite obvious that there is more risk of a downside than a probability of an upside at this stage. I sold more shares in Healthway Medical today and I am left holding only 25% of my original investment. Why not sell all? It pays to remember that the market can be perverse. Always hedge.

Breaking 19.5c resistance will give an eventual target of 24c. Any correction in price will find initial support at 16.5c with a stronger support at 15c.


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