A weak showing

No morning star formation for Golden Agriculture.  Price closed right smack on the 50c support level.  Even though volume expanded to become the highest in the last three sessions, the picture of a low volume pullback is still valid.  That the price touched a low of 49c before rebounding suggests that the 50c support has become porous.  100dMA is at 48.5c and should provide the next level of support.  If this breaks, there is some way to fall.  Of course, if the 50c support level continues to hold up, chances of some upside action will increase.

The low volume pullback picture for Healthway Medical is intact.  Price action tested the 14c support level today before closing at 14.5c.  If 14c breaks, the next level of support should be where the 50dMA is and that's at 13c.  MFI has turned down and looks set to test its trendline support.  Let's see if it rebounds to form a higher low.  If it does, it would be a positive.  Otherwise, it's back to being lacklustre.  MACD continues to descend and is nearing zero.  If it goes below zero, it would signal the end of the upward momentum.

Saizen REIT remains rather illiquid and closed with a gravestone doji at 16c.  The daily MAs are flattening out and indicate a period of low volatility as prices have been trading sideways.  Looking at the weekly chart shows that the price is still trending upwards.  This is the longer term picture.  In terms of fundamentals, Saizen REIT is an attractive longer term investment for anyone who wants to buy residential real estate in Japan at a huge discount and it is comforting to see the chart confirming that the trend over the longer term is still up.

Gold or silver?

I have blogged about gold and how it might be a good idea to buy some to protect our wealth against a backdrop of higher inflation.  For almost a year now, I have been hearing from various quarters that silver is undervalued and from a value perspective, it is a better buy than gold.  Certainly, Marc Faber and Jim Rogers, two of the greatest financial brains of our time seem to think so.  This is not a new idea but it is to me since I have not seriously looked into this before.

Silver is a real asset, with real value, just like gold, as its supply is finite.  Fiat currencies, on the other hand, do not have any intrinsic value and more could be produced at will.  So, we expect silver to at least keep pace with inflation and in an inflationary environment, an investment in silver should protect our wealth from being eroded.

So, I decided that I should do some research on the subject even though I am quite comfortable with my current choices in investments.  If I decide not to buy any silver in the end, I would have gained some useful knowledge anyway, I rationalised.  I found much information and I am now posting what I feel are some interesting findings.

From MoneyWeek, 24 April 09:

Indeed, well over half of the annual silver supply is now used by industry (in sectors ranging from medicine to aerospace), compared to around 11% for gold. In precious metal upswings, it tends to outperform gold: the "same drivers as gold driving a smaller market ensures that", says Franklin Sanders of The Money Changer.......

.....Once sentiment turns, however, silver can tumble rapidly...

From Mineweb, 5 Nov 09:

The longer term trend channel for silver began on March 21st, 2003 at a low of $4.35 and has upper resistance of $51 and lower support at $12. Such volatility has always been very high because, with the silver market only about 2% that of gold, even a small amount of money flowing into silver has a huge impact.


The medium term trend channel began with a lengthy March through August 2007 consolidation base of $13 - $14 and currently has upper resistance at $32 and lower support at $13.


The Gold:Silver ratio has ranged from 14.9-to-1 in January 15, 1980 at the time of the record high gold and silver prices to 99.8-to-1 on February 22, 1991 when the price of silver was particularly depressed.


The current short term trend channel began in November 2008 at $8.79 and currently has upper resistance at $22 and lower support at $15.50.

Silver is currently trading at the higher end of the Gold:Silver ratio since 1980.  Silver is now US$15.15/oz while gold is US$ 1,052.20/oz.  This gives us a ratio of 69.45 to 1.  This is closer to the historical high of 99.8 to 1.
So, there seems to be some truth in the claim that silver is undervalued now and that it is a laggard in the realm of precious metals or it could also mean that gold is simply too expensive.  Some hedging might not be a bad idea.

There is a very easy way to gain exposure to silver in Singapore through a Silver Savings Account with UOB.  I might just start an account.  Just like gold, I will probably be buying silver with an aim to protect my wealth with the increased likelihood of higher inflation in the coming years.  It will not be for trading.

Related posts:
Gold as an insurance against inflation.
101 investment choices.