Golden Agriculture: CPO at a new high.

I am certain that price of CPO would go higher in time given all the economics which I have blogged about before.  Today, CPO price went to a new high of RM2,919, up RM159 or 5.76%.  I have been bullish on Golden Agriculture for the longest time given its inexpensive valuation and highly leveraged position to the price of CPO. I have made a few rounds of profits trading the shares of Golden Agriculture for more than a year now.

On 30 Sep, I mentioned that "56c is only one bid shy of 55.5c which is where we find the rising 200dMA which coincides with the uptrend support line.  This is, therefore, likely to be a rather strong support.  So, buying at 56c for anyone who would like to have a stake in Golden Agriculture seems fairly safe.  Personally, I am waiting for the dust to settle."  For those who went long at 56c, congratulations as Golden Agriculture broke out on extremely high volume today to touch a high of 61.5c before closing at 60.5c.

Unfortunately, Golden Agriculture's problems with the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO) and how it lost customers such as Burger King Holdings, Nestle and Unilever, who have said they will stop buying from Sinar Mas (which controls Golden Agriculture) because of environmental concerns, have cast a pall on an otherwise clearly undervalued proposition.

There is just too much uncertainty for my liking.  I rather err on the side of caution. By not having a substantial long position in Golden Agriculture anymore, I might not gain from any positive price movement but at least I would not lose money either.

Related posts:
Golden Agriculture: 56c support.
Golden Agriculture: Unable to break out.

Courage Marine: Steady as she goes.

On 30 Sep, I said "A friend asked me what I think of Courage Marine and I told him I like its numbers and I like how the BDI seems to have stabilised at $2,500 thereabouts.  I feel that Courage Marine shouldn't have bad news with regards to earnings. The main reason why I have not really talked about Courage Marine very much recently is the lack of anything newsworthy." Things have hardly changed since.

The BDI is currently at US$2,696 which is quite comfortable and at an investor meeting on Thursday, Chairman Hsu Chih-Chien said he was very bullish on the ability of China in particular to continue driving the market for bulk cargo going forward.

“Our Capesize vessel mainly transports coal, bauxite and iron ore while our four Panamax ships focus on thermal coal mainly for the energy needs of China. We feel there is huge potential for growth in the Chinese coal market,” he added.

“This country still relies on coal for the vast bulk of its energy needs. So if you want to know if I expect any slowdown in China’s coal demand, I would say – Not in my lifetime,” Mr. Hsu said.

My opinion that Courage Marine is a good investment at current prices has not changed and from what was revealed on Thursday, it seems that Courage Marine could continue to deliver a good set of numbers in time.  I remain vested.

Read complete article in Next Insight here.

Related post:
Courage Marine: Lengthy consolidation.