Courage Marine: Chance to cut loss.

With the BDI sinking amidst a worsening situation of overcapacity and economic malaise in Europe, the rally in Courage Marine's share price provided a chance for me to cut my long exposure with minimal losses.

We are also blessed to have an industry insider, Jason, amongst the regular readers of ASSI and if the evidence provided is anything to go by, the bleak situation for bulk carriers looks set to worsen.

Low: 662.

Although Courage Marine entered the worsening state of affairs from a position of strength, it is unlikely to do better than the preceding year. In fact, for some, its very survival is in question.

With today's white candle formed on the back of higher volume, could we not see price going higher? We could, of course. 11c or even 12c could be tested next if the bullishness continues. I am already in the queue to sell.

Related post:
Courage Marine: BDI plunging.

Courage Marine: BDI plunging.

Yesterday's Business Times reported that the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) fell to an 11 month low. Today, it fell another 3.799% to 1,013.

The decline is attributed to a worsening glut of ships. Rates are now below operating costs in the Pacific Ocean.

Capesizes, the largest dry bulk carriers cost US$7,437 a day to operate (excluding fuel). However, rates on round trip voyages in the Pacific fell to US$6,471 a day, down 80% from a month ago.

Seasonal decline in demand to ship commodities to China, port disruptions in Australia after a recent cyclone and a larger number of ships will continue to exert downward pressure on rates in the short run.

My investment in Courage Marine late last year at 10c a share is now underwater. What do I plan to do? Nothing. Why?

Courage Marine is a company with a strong balance sheet and I doubt it is going to sink. It might not do well but it will most probably survive the bad times.

For those who are thinking of possibly investing in Courage Marine, there could be a better time to do so. For those who are already vested, we have to ask if we run the risk of selling at the bottom if we exit now.

With my investment in the company accounting for only some 1.5% of my total portfolio value, I will simply hold on.

Investing in financially sound companies, I am able to stomach paper losses which are likely to be temporary in nature.

Related post:
Courage Marine: Bought more at 10c a share.

Courage Marine unit disposes MV Raffles for $4m
Wednesday, 18 January 2012

© 2012 - The Edge Singapore

Courage Marine: Bought more at 10c per share.

For a while, it looked as if a double top was forming in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI). Well, the potential double top formation has been negated as the BDI broke resistance and looks set to form a higher high.

As most of Courage Marine's business is on a per trip basis and at spot rate, a higher BDI is good news for the company. If the BDI continues to rise into winter, it could turn out to be quite a good quarter for Courage Marine and it looks like it could happen.

Bloomberg reported earlier in the year that freight rates are poised to rise after hitting a two year low as owners of ships carrying coal and iron ore scrapped the most vessels in 28 years. Indeed, Courage Marine recently sold one of its vessels to be scrapped as well. Also, Malaysian Bulker Carrier predicted that the dry bulk market could do well in the medium term due to Japan increasing imports of coal.

Technically, the MACD has been rising since plunging to a low in negative territory in mid August 2011. Although momentum is still negative, the rising MACD suggests that momentum is improving.

If we believe that Courage Marine's share price is currently range bound without any trend, looking at the Stochastics reveals that momentum is closer to the lower end of the range, although not oversold. Any further upward movement in price could find initial resistance at 11c while support is at 9.5c.

Related posts:
1. Courage Marine: Added at 10.5c per share.
2. Double dip recession or just very slow growth?

Double dip recession or just very slow growth?

Stock markets around the world had a very bad week. Everyone it seems is expecting a global recession and the accompanying deflation.

In a truly deflationary environment, all assets will suffer and see their prices fall. Equities and precious metals were all sold down across the board, therefore.

However, reading an article in Bloomberg, it is interesting to note that in the USA, "railroads shipments are the highest in almost three years." This defies concerns of an impending double dip recession.

Art Hatfield, a transportation analyst in Memphis, Tennessee, at Morgan Keegan & Co: “We’re not seeing declines in rail volumes that are synonymous with a recession... We remain in a slow growth environment.”
Read article: here.

If we were to look at the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), we see it rising in recent weeks and I wrote a piece on whether it could be time to load up on shares of Courage Marine again not too long ago.

The suggestion is that there is an increase in demand for shipping capacity and because "dry bulk primarily consists of materials that function as raw material inputs to the production of intermediate or finished goods, ... the index is also seen as an efficient economic indicator of future economic growth and production. The BDI is termed a leading economic indicator because it predicts future economic activity." Source: Wikipedia.

So, is there going to be a double dip recession after all? There are analysts who believe that a recession is a given and some who believe that Europe will get its act together and a recession will be averted. With such conflicting signs, at this point in time, however, it is just a sea of opinions.

Personally, I do not believe in being overly bullish or overly bearish. I believe in being pragmatic. Putting all our chips on a single bet either way could be quite disastrous if we should be proven wrong.

What is being pragmatic? Knowing what the current conditions are, what kind of investments are likely to do better and act accordingly. It is about wealth preservation, if not growth.

Related posts:
1. Courage Marine: Added at 10.5c a share.
2. Should we be staying invested or in cash?
3. Sleep well at night with a plan.
4. Why do I not panic?

Courage Marine: Added at 10.5c a share.

It has been some time since I wrote about Courage Marine. With the BDI in a downtrend, there was no reason to go long on this counter. The last time I did something pertaining to this counter was a divestment when news of a dual listing in Hong Kong was made known.

However, as I like the company, I have been tracking its performance which is of course closely tied to the BDI as most of its revenue is derived from spot rates.

The BDI was consolidating for many months. Since hitting a low in early 2011, 1,250 has been established as a support, four times tested no less. 1,500 was breached recently and retested successfully as support. The BDI has broken out of its consolidation phase and we could be seeing a trend reversal starting in earnest.

Courage Marine's share price went lower than its low of end 2008 recently. This means that the market expects the company to do worse than it did in the last recession but with the BDI breaking out of its consolidation phase to the upside, the fundamentals seem to suggest something else.

So, I have tip-toed back into Courage Marine, re-initiating a long position in the company. Technically, I am wary of initiating too big a long position because the declining 20dMA could push price lower again. If price were to overcome the 20dMA convincingly, we could see 12.5c and 13.5c tested next.

Related posts:
Courage Marine: Profit warning.

Courage Marine: Profit warning.

Courage Marine's management issued a profit warning, expecting 1Q 2011 to turn in a loss: "The Board of Directors of the Company wishes to inform Shareholders that, despite efforts by the Group to secure deployment of its fleet, fleet utilisation was low during the first quarter of 2011. The Chinese New Year holidays in February resulted in a decrease in our fleet utilisation over the period. In addition, the Japanese quakes, tsunami and nuclear power plant disaster had temporarily halted the shipment of cargo to and from Japan, which resulted in a temporary over-supply of vessels within the Asian region. In addition, freight rates during the period remained generally low, with the BDI averaging around the 1,500 level during such period." Read announcement here.

I took the opportunity to divest most of my investment in the company at 22c/share when the price spiked on news of dual listing plans by the management. This was on 18 Jan 2011. I still retain a small investment in the company despite dismal BDI numbers as I want to see if dual listing would help reflect the value of the stock more accurately. Well, we win some and we lose some. Here is the latest BDI chart:

Technically, the counter had been range bound with resistance at 19.5c and support at 17c. Today, price broke support and touched 16.5c briefly before closing at 17c.

Gapping down today, we could see gap fill happening at 18c and that would be a good price to reduce exposure or to divest completely. Sell at resistance, that is what I would do. Panic selling would not do us any good.

Courage Marine: A dividend of 0.71c per share.

On 18 January, Courage Marine gapped up as it opened at 22c. My overnight sell queue was filled as I reduced my exposure to the counter by half. At the time, I said "The BDI has already broken the previous low and it is yet unclear where the next low would be but with greater increase in bulk shipping capacity in the near future, upside could be limited as supply outstrips demand." Recently, the BDI has found another low and has turned up:

In its press release, Courage Marine's management said that "Based on the report from Deutsche Bank on Feb 9, 2011, the BDI may experience a possible turnaround from current low level and is expected to return to normal in 1 to 2 months’ time." I expect normal to mean 2,500 or so but that would still be a lower high. The future for bulk carriers looks difficult indeed if this were the case.

I also said that "I would hold on to see if price could go higher either through further developments in its plan to dual list in Hong Kong or through a possibly generous dividend payout." Well, a dividend of 0.71c per share has been declared. Not too spectacular although it represents a dividend payout ratio of 83% based on the net profit after tax.

What would I do now? Sell into strength, if the opportunity presents itself.

See press release here.

Related posts:
Courage Marine: Dual listing.
Courage Marine: Retreating to support.

Courage Marine: Retreating to support.

Yesterday, I mentioned that "Looking at the chart, immediate support is currently at 21c although it seems precarious as MFI and RSI spiked into overbought regions. Any weakness could see the counter pulling back to 20c which offers a stronger support and would correct the overbought condition."

The excitement that came with the prospect of dual listing by the counter petered out quickly as price formed a wickless black candle and closed at 20.5c today, just 1 bid shy of the 20c support I mentioned. Looking at the buy queue which formed at 20c, it does look like it would be a strong support.

With both the MFI and RSI exiting their overbought regions, we could see the overbought condition corrected very soon. We could see the MFI retest its uptrend support which means that volume and price could fall further in the meantime.

20c support could indeed be tested sooner than later while 19c is where we find a clustering of the MAs and that is where we would find the strongest support in case of severe weakness.

CIMB downgrades bulk shipping to "underweight". Read article here.

Source:
Bloomberg, CIMB Research.

Related post:
Courage Marine: Dual listing.

Courage Marine: Dual listing.

On 14 November 2010, I said that "It would have to take a very bad 4Q 2010 to destroy whatever the company has achieved in positive numbers thus far in 2010."

Although the BDI has been declining and "even if 4Q 2010 does not turn in any profit which I believe is unlikely, net profit this year is already 120x higher than the whole of 2009!" So, I firmly held on, believing that the management would declare a generous dividend when the time comes.

Courage Marine gapped up today as it opened at 22c. My overnight sell queue was filled as I reduced my exposure to the counter by half. For me, locking in a gain now is like getting the dividend in advance. After all, the declining BDI is likely to have a negative impact on Courage Marine's earnings, going forward. The BDI has already broken the previous low and it is yet unclear where the next low would be but with greater increase in bulk shipping capacity in the near future, upside could be limited as supply outstrips demand.

 BDI
 (Source: Bloomberg)


What would I do with my remaining position in Courage Marine? I would hold on to see if price could go higher either through further developments in its plan to dual list in Hong Kong or through a possibly generous dividend payout.

Looking at the chart, immediate support is currently at 21c although it seems precarious as MFI and RSI spiked into overbought regions. Any weakness could see the counter pulling back to 20c which offers a stronger support and would correct the overbought condition. Further upside could see Courage Marine retest a many times tested resistance level at 23c. I would be tempted to sell more then.

Related post:
Courage Marine: 3Q 2010 results.

Courage Marine +13.2%; latest dual listing play 
Tuesday, 18 January 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

Courage Marine seeks dual listing in HK stock exchange. Courage Marine also believes the listing will also enhance its profile in Hong Kong and in China which are becoming increasingly significant markets and facilitate business opportunities, customer relationship and business development.
Monday, 17 January 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

Courage Marine: 3Q 2010 results.

A good set of  numbers for 3Q 2010:

1. Revenue improved 54% from the same period last year from US$ 5.506m to US$8.474m.

2. For the 9M 2010, the company turned in a total gross profit of US$9.964m compared to a loss of US$3.245m for 9M 2009. If we remember, it was 4Q 2009 which saved the company, allowing it to have a small net profit for the full year.

3. EPS for 9M 2010 is at US0.85c compared to a loss of US0.27c in the same period last year. EPS for the full year would probably be more than US1c.

It would have to take a very bad 4Q 2010 to destroy whatever the company has achieved in positive numbers thus far in 2010.

A reader asked if there would be a sell down tomorrow. Although I do not see any reason why there should be a sell down, the carnage in the SSE last week could affect the STI and Courage Marine's price. After all, a large portion of the company's business is Chinese. The sell down would be due to negative sentiments, however, and not because the company's fundamentals have taken a turn for the worse. In case of a sell down, I would accumulate. Why?

Courage Marine's management has a track record for sharing the the fruits of its labour with shareholders. Last year, despite ending the year with a small net profit of only US$75,000, it declared a dividend of US0.47c per share due to its strong cash position. Net profit for 9M 2010 is already US$ 9.012 m! Even if 4Q 2010 does not turn in any profit which I believe is unlikely, net profit this year is already 120x higher than the whole of 2009!

Dividend payout for 2010 could be quite a bit higher than 2009.

See results here.

Related posts:
Courage Marine: Riding the waves of recovery.
Courage Marine: Steady as she goes.

Courage Marine: Steady as she goes.

On 30 Sep, I said "A friend asked me what I think of Courage Marine and I told him I like its numbers and I like how the BDI seems to have stabilised at $2,500 thereabouts.  I feel that Courage Marine shouldn't have bad news with regards to earnings. The main reason why I have not really talked about Courage Marine very much recently is the lack of anything newsworthy." Things have hardly changed since.

The BDI is currently at US$2,696 which is quite comfortable and at an investor meeting on Thursday, Chairman Hsu Chih-Chien said he was very bullish on the ability of China in particular to continue driving the market for bulk cargo going forward.

“Our Capesize vessel mainly transports coal, bauxite and iron ore while our four Panamax ships focus on thermal coal mainly for the energy needs of China. We feel there is huge potential for growth in the Chinese coal market,” he added.

“This country still relies on coal for the vast bulk of its energy needs. So if you want to know if I expect any slowdown in China’s coal demand, I would say – Not in my lifetime,” Mr. Hsu said.

My opinion that Courage Marine is a good investment at current prices has not changed and from what was revealed on Thursday, it seems that Courage Marine could continue to deliver a good set of numbers in time.  I remain vested.

Read complete article in Next Insight here.

Related post:
Courage Marine: Lengthy consolidation.

Courage Marine: Lengthy consolidation.

A friend asked me what I think of Courage Marine and I told him I like its numbers and I like how the BDI seems to have stabilised at $2,500 thereabouts.  I feel that Courage Marine shouldn't have bad news with regards to earnings. The main reason why I have not really talked about Courage Marine very much recently is the lack of anything newsworthy.

Courage Marine's share price seems to be going through a lengthy consolidation period.  Nothing exciting either way. OBV is flat which indicates a lack of any distribution or accumulation activities. Seems like status quo to me. The MFI still suggests the presence of demand while the RSI has bounced off the 50% mark which suggests some buying momentum is present.

The 20d, 50d and 100d MAs have all merged at 19c.  19c could either become a strong support or a strong resistance in such a case. Which way would it go? Well, we have a buy signal on the MACD histogram and with the MFI and OBV more positive than negative, I would hazard a guess: up. In such an instance, I see resistance at 20c, 21c and 23c.  Good luck to my friend and fellow shareholders.

Related post:
Courage Marine: Awakening.

Courage Marine: White candle day.

On 15 Sep, I asked, "Is Courage Marine awakening? If the resistance at 19.5c is taken out convincingly, it could very much be the case." Today, this took place on rather high volume. Of the 3,882 lots traded today, 2,999 lots were buy ups, of which 2,172 lots were buy ups at 20c.  Could the remaining sell queue at 20c be mopped up tomorrow? Perhaps.

The MACD is rising in positive territory signalling a return of positive momentum. The OBV shows a sharp move upwards suggesting increased accumulation. The MFI formed a higher low several sessions ago and has risen into overbought territory.  The RSI has the same trend.  Demand and buying momentum are both positive but seeing the indices being in overbought territories sends a cautionary note.  Any upside could be limited.  If 20c is take out, the next resistance could be at 21c, the high of 22 Jun 10.

However, in exceptionally bullish situations, both MFI and RSI could stay overbought for much longer. Could it happen in the meantime? It could but it does not seem very probable.

Related post:
Courage Marine: Awakening.

Courage Marine: Awakening.

On 11 Sep, a reader, Wong, asked if it would be a good idea to accumulate more units at 18c.  I avoided giving a straight answer as usual and replied:

"If you have excess funds lying around and if you think that the shipping industry has turned the corner, 18c seems inexpensive.

"If you already have a large investment in Courage Marine, then, you have to question how comfortable are you to increase exposure to this company.

"In my opinion, Courage Marine is fundamentally sound. If there should be nasty surprises in the macroeconomic environment, Courage Marine would most probably survive because of its strong balance sheet. Shipping is a cyclical business. We have to ride the waves."

Courage Marine's share price has been trapped in a range between 18.5c and 19.5c for a long time and there are some whom I "overheard" in Bully the Bear's cbox being sick of holding on to the shares.  Patience is a rare commodity, after all.

With more people conversant in TA, charts are revealing its secrets to more market participants and there was a huge sell queue at 19.5c today as many recognise it as a strong resistance. However, there was heavy buying up in the first half hour of trading and 3,696 lots were bought up at 19.5c.  Trading volume is also impressive so far with a total of 5,247 lots changing hands.

Is Courage Marine awakening? If the resistance at 19.5c is taken out convincingly, it could very much be the case. Good luck to fellow shareholders.

Related post:
Courage Marine: Range bound.

Courage Marine: Range bound.

Price seems range bound between 19.5c and 18.5c. The BDI has been rather anemic of late and that could perhaps partly account for the lethargy in Courage Marine's share price.

The MFI, OBV and RSI have all recently flatlined.  Nothing seems to be happening. In a range bound situation, look at the Stochastics and we see it high in the overbought region.  This suggests that price, which happens to be at the upper end of the range identified, could find it hard to move higher for now.

The good news is that MACD has been rising slowly in positive territory above the signal line.  The return of positive momentum provides some cheer although we should remember that it is a lagging indicator.

Charts in brief: 22 Jun 10.

NOL: Sell signal seen on the MACD histogram. So, will the price fall for sure? I cannot say but the negative divergence between price and volume has to be resolved.  There should be a pretty strong support at $1.95, a many times tested resistance of a mini ascending triangle pattern. $1.95 is also where we find the rising 100dMA at the moment.

NOL off lows; Low-risk container shipping play, says UOB
Tuesday, 22 June 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: OBV shows steady accumulation. MFI has formed a lower high in the very short term. MACD has crossed into positive territory. If the MFI could gradually fall while the price remains at or above the 21.5c support, it would be good news for bulls.

CapitaMalls Asia: A black spinning top and a bearish harami to boot. A possible pullback to $2.13 where we find the trendline support and the 50dMA is not hard to imagine. Rising positive buying momentum as suggested by a rising MFI should limit any selling pressure.

Courage Marine:  MFI and OBV continue to rise sharply as volume almost tripled on a day that saw price hit a high of 21c.  21c was identified earlier as a strong resistance and it could not be taken out today.

Charts in brief: 21 Jun 10.

Most counters in my watchlist are positive today as the STI gained to close just a whisker off 2,880. It would seem that the Chinese government has done the world a great favour by deciding to let the RMB strengthen. This is something I have believed should happen for some time. A stronger RMB would ameliorate the problem of inflation within China, raise the purchasing power of its people and improve standards of living. Increased domestic consumption would do a lot of good for China's own economy as well as the global economy. You might want to read what I wrote in an earlier post here.

STI +1.6%; More upside on window-dressing, says SIAS
Monday, 21 June 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Volume expanded today and all trades were done at only one price, 22c. MACD has turned up.  MACD histogram has a buy signal. MFI has turned up, forming a higher low. OBV has turned up, suggesting increased accumulation.

CapitaMalls Asia: Price broke the resistance band of $2.19 to $2.21 which I identified earlier. Closing at $2.22 seems bullish but volume suggests that this might not be durable. This counter is probably rising due to a lack of sellers rather than an abundance of buyers. Nonetheless, the momentum is still good as suggested by the MFI and price might be pushed higher.

Courage Marine: The picture is somewhat similar to CapitaMalls Asia.  A white candle day on improved volume but not impressively so which suggests a lack of sellers rather than an abundance of buyers. MFI shows improving momentum while the OBV has turned up slightly.  It remains to be seen if resistance at 20c could be taken out. A significant resistance after 20c is at 21c.

FSL Trust: MFI and OBV continue to rise. Could 40c be taken out this week? The next resistance level which is likely to be a strong one as suggested by candlesticks and a declining 20dMA is at 42c.

Golden Agriculture: Price continues to be resisted at 55c although it touched a high of 55.5c today. Momentum is still positive and MACD is about to cross into positive territory. Volume is, however, unimpressive which probably resulted in the failure to take out 55c and instead formed a white spinning top which is a possible reversal signal.  Support is at 51.5c in case of a trend reversal.

LMIR: It seems that the merged 100d and 200d MAs are too strong to be taken out today. Price closed at 47.5c which is where we find the 50dMA, forming an inverted cross in the process. The negative divergence between price and volume continues to suggest LMIR has been rising on weak technicals. If the 50dMA does not hold up as support, the next support is at 46c as provided by the 20dMA.

Related posts:
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Big boys.
Courage Marine: Triple bottom?
Golden Agriculture: Resistance remains at 55c.
LMIR: Testing resistance.
FSL Trust: Verona I.

Courage Marine: Triple bottom?

An old friend from University asked me out for dinner earlier this evening. We met up and he asked if there are any good penny stocks now to go long on.  Without hesitation, I asked him to look at Courage Marine.

Courage Marine has confirmed the long term support of 17.5c again and again.  Today, it broke resistance provided by the declining 20dMA at 18.5c.  This incidentally is a many times tested resistance level.  Closing at 19.5c, it is resisted by the declining 100dMA.  The way upwards might be difficult as three MAs have to be overcome.  Without an expansion in volume with any upward movement in price, it would be difficult to have a breakout.

However, in terms of chart pattern, Courage Marine might well be forming a triple bottom. If this reading is correct, the neckline is at 21.5c and the target is 25.5c.

I am currently vested in Courage Marine and might add to my position if it confirms that 18.5c is resistance turned support.  For anyone thinking of going long, 18.5c is a fair entry price.  The downside seems limited with the long term support at 17.5c.  The risk reward analysis provides an attractive proposition.

Related post:
Courage Marine: Riding the waves of recovery.

Charts in brief: 27 May 10 (Part 1).

CLSA notes S-REITs offer yield of 7.1% vs yields of 5.3% from telcos, 3.0% from market.
 
“Unlike before, where S-REITs’ dividends could see further dilution from recapitalization exercises, we would argue that with a lower sector gearing and stable physical asset yields, most REITs would not need to recapitalise further. Hence, earnings and dividends are more insulated from any possible dilution,” says the research house.

S-REITs give better yields vs telcos, market says CLSA
Thursday, 27 May 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

STI rises 1.6% to 2,739.70 at closing
Thursday, 27 May 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Another up day for the STI on respectable volume. We will lose a trading day tomorrow as it is Vesak Day.  We can only cross our fingers and hope that global stock markets continue to strengthen tomorrow so that the STI could have a decent chance of continuing this rebound next Monday.

Courage Marine: This counter strengthened ever so slightly to close at 18.5c.  The BDI is up again at 4,209. The longer term support of 17.5c is holding as price formed a white hammer today on thin volume. I like this company's strong fundamentals. The technicals are turning up and I've bought some at 18c as a hedge.

MFI has formed higher lows and emerged from the oversold region. The MACD is turning up towards the signal line. Courage Marine might just be a laggard and might just play catch up if movement in the BDI remains favourable.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: A rebound is underway. Volume expanded as MFI and BDI rose in tandem. The MACD has turned up towards the signal line since it started its decline ten sessions ago. Expecting strong resistance at 21.5c.  Overcoming 21.5c would give this counter a chance at retesting old highs at 23c.

CapitaMalls Asia: Volume expanded today as we have another white candle day. Price touched a high of $2.13 before retreating to $2.11.  The trendline resistance has done its job at $2.12.

MFI continues to rise, forming higher lows.  OBV is rising too.  MACD is rising in negative territory.  If the next session sees price closing above $2.12, we could see $2.19 tested as the next resistance. If this does not happen, price is likely to go lower, seeing that it is a symmetrical triangle and the downtrend could continue. I am no longer vested in this counter, having cut my losses in last week's rebound. Good luck to those who are still vested.

FSL Trust: Price has detached itself further from the lower limits of the Bollinger bands. It is quite obvious that OBV has stopped declining, suggesting that distribution activities have come to an end for now. MFI has formed a higher low and is still rising.  The MACD looks set to form a bullish crossover with the signal line, although it is still in negative territory.  The worst is probably over for this counter. For anyone who has been waiting to go long on this counter, it seems fairly safe to put in a hedge now although further volatility to the downside cannot be discounted.

Golden Agriculture: Reached a high of 52c only to close at 50.5c.  From the candlesticks, it would seem that 50.5c is an important resistance level.  Successfully overcoming this would find resistance at 52.5c and 54c.  Could it retest 56c, where we now find the flat 100dMA?

Related post:
Charts in brief: 26 May 2010.

Charts in brief: 26 May 2010.

STI rises 1.7% to 2,696.02 at closing
Wednesday, 26 May 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Courage Marine: The BDI closed above 4,000 at 4,187.  That is up 6.188%.  Courage Marine, however, closed lower at 17.5c while Cosco, NOL and STX Pan Ocean rose. This, in my opinion, is an invitation to buy more shares of Courage Marine. 17.5c is a long term support and downside should be limited.  Another hedge, perhaps.

SPH: Formed a white hammer and recaptured the 200dMA at the same time.  This is a bullish reversal signal.  Resistance to be found at $3.82 to $3.84 which are price levels at which are found many times tested candlestick resistance and supports.  The 100dMA is also at $3.82 while the descending 20dMA is fast approximating $3.84. As the MACD is still descending in negative territory, this is likely to be just a rebound.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: MACD is still drawing away downwards from the signal line as the histrogram turned green. MFI is still in oversold territory. 20c has been established as the new support. Any upward movement in price is likely to be capped by the gap resistance at 21.5c which is also where we find all the MAs bunching up.

LMIR: A gravestone doji suggests a failed attempt to move higher in price.  OBV turned up but the buying momentum is weak as suggested by a lower high on the MFI. Fundamentals are still good but I would wait and see due to the very weak technicals.

FSL Trust: A smaller white candle forming in the middle of a preceding larger black candle, we have a bullish harami setup.  If this setup is valid, price could continue higher to test 50c. The MACD is closing in on the signal line while the MFI is rising sharply. The technicals certainly suggest that the downward momentum is exhausted and a rebound is looking more likely.

CapitaMalls Asia: Nice white candle day. MFI formed a higher low. MACD averted a bearish crossover with the signal line. If price continues to move higher tomorrow, we would have a higher low.  Next resistance at $2.12 which was the support that failed on 4 May. This coincides with the trendline resistance. Going higher would find resistance at $2.19, an important support that held up in February. $2.19 is also where we find the descending 50dMA.

Saizen REIT: Another anxious seller.  This time at 3pm, 1.7m shares at 15c. FA is about value and TA is about price. So, the market could get quite irrational.  The next support, if 15c fails to hold up, is at 14.5c.  If the market is willing to sell to me cheap, I am willing to buy.  As of now, the 12 months uptrend is still intact.

Related post:
Charts in brief: 25 May 10.