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Charts in brief: 26 May 2010.

Wednesday, May 26, 2010


Courage Marine: The BDI closed above 4,000 at 4,187.  That is up 6.188%.  Courage Marine, however, closed lower at 17.5c while Cosco, NOL and STX Pan Ocean rose. This, in my opinion, is an invitation to buy more shares of Courage Marine. 17.5c is a long term support and downside should be limited.  Another hedge, perhaps.




SPH: Formed a white hammer and recaptured the 200dMA at the same time.  This is a bullish reversal signal.  Resistance to be found at $3.82 to $3.84 which are price levels at which are found many times tested candlestick resistance and supports.  The 100dMA is also at $3.82 while the descending 20dMA is fast approximating $3.84. As the MACD is still descending in negative territory, this is likely to be just a rebound.




AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: MACD is still drawing away downwards from the signal line as the histrogram turned green. MFI is still in oversold territory. 20c has been established as the new support. Any upward movement in price is likely to be capped by the gap resistance at 21.5c which is also where we find all the MAs bunching up.




LMIR: A gravestone doji suggests a failed attempt to move higher in price.  OBV turned up but the buying momentum is weak as suggested by a lower high on the MFI. Fundamentals are still good but I would wait and see due to the very weak technicals.




FSL Trust: A smaller white candle forming in the middle of a preceding larger black candle, we have a bullish harami setup.  If this setup is valid, price could continue higher to test 50c. The MACD is closing in on the signal line while the MFI is rising sharply. The technicals certainly suggest that the downward momentum is exhausted and a rebound is looking more likely.




CapitaMalls Asia: Nice white candle day. MFI formed a higher low. MACD averted a bearish crossover with the signal line. If price continues to move higher tomorrow, we would have a higher low.  Next resistance at $2.12 which was the support that failed on 4 May. This coincides with the trendline resistance. Going higher would find resistance at $2.19, an important support that held up in February. $2.19 is also where we find the descending 50dMA.



Saizen REIT: Another anxious seller.  This time at 3pm, 1.7m shares at 15c. FA is about value and TA is about price. So, the market could get quite irrational.  The next support, if 15c fails to hold up, is at 14.5c.  If the market is willing to sell to me cheap, I am willing to buy.  As of now, the 12 months uptrend is still intact.




Related post:
Charts in brief: 25 May 10.

22 comments:

Aspire said...

Hey AK,
I'm curious. How do you tell how many shares a person sells & the time?

~K

AK71 said...

Hi K,

There is a "Time & Sales" function in Lim&Tan's online trading platform. Your trading platform should have it too. :)

Anonymous said...

Hi AK,
Sorry to go off topic, just wanted your opinion on Starhub as a dividend holding stock as I wish to diversify, too many reits already.

Thanks
KL

AK71 said...

Hi KL,

I have always been worried about Starhub's gearing. However, JW and Drizzt are shareholders of Starhub and between the two of them, I am convinced that Starhub could repay its debts if it suspends dividend payouts for two or three quarters. Starhub has strong FCF.

Please visit "Wealth Buch" and "Investment Moats" for FA on Starhub. You can find the links in my blogroll "Investors & Traders". :)

Drizzt said...

I think current climate the telcos free cashflow for singtel and starhub should be alright. m1 is the one having abit of a fix.

the opportunity right now seems to be singtel. beaten down alot by recent overseas difficulties.

it proves that being overseas reduces the domestic risk but give and take u get risks such as what is happening in india now.

AK71 said...

Hi Drizzt,

I notice the pie chart in your blog went through some changes. Most of your portfolio is just Starhub now? Not in M1 and First REIT anymore?

Thanks for sharing your insights. :-)

Drizzt said...

well i liquidate them cause i thought i can get First REIT at a lower. basket it just wouldn't go down!

as for M1, I am taking profit on it and my view is that i am not expecting any increase in yields due to special dividends.

they look to be the weakest of the telco in terms of balance sheet strength.

AK71 said...

Hi Drizzt,

Yup, First REIT seems to have relative strength. It is not very liquid either which suggests that most investors in this REIT are long term investors and they are just holding on. One reason for the lack of volatility might also be the smaller float (compared to its Indonesian cousin, LMIR, for example).

I have been told that M1 gives good dividends but I am not vested. Not vested in any telcos yet (except for 190 shares in SingTel from donkey years ago) but I am keeping an eye on Starhub. ;)

Drizzt said...

people at the sidelines should take a look at next quarters announcement. that will give a dark picture probably.

AK71 said...

Hi Drizzt,

You think Starhub and M1 would not do so well in the next quarter? I don't know how the fundamentals would look like next quarter as I am not in tune with telcos. Technically, however, Starhub is looking rather weak.

Drizzt said...

it has been hovering around the 2.14 price. any where from 2.10 below is a good pickup. I dun see it drop below 1.90.

am i expecting them not to do well? probably we will see what happens when people move over to mio tv.

my ground level work seems to tell me that starhub's cable content is still in demand.

the one time expesing of handset cost should see next quarters profit higher

AK71 said...

Hi Drizzt,

Thanks for sharing this. I am definitely keeping an eye on Starhub. I see $2.06 as a strong initial support, followed by $2.00. Waiting to pick up some. If $1.90 goes, I no eyes see. ;-p

Drizzt said...

whoa. 2! my average cost is around 2.17 and by then i would have lost my pants!

but 2 bucks is almost 9% down which i still feel this stock is less volatile then alot of other stocks.

btw what do you think of cache logistics? do you think it is in a better position compare to aims reit or mapletree log?

AK71 said...

Hi Drizzt,

If Starhub tests support at $2.00, I would probably buy some. Would be my maiden purchase of the company's shares. ;)

CLT? I think it has decent yield and is very safe with very low gearing. The fundamentals are good. Technically, there is almost nothing to see as it is so new. It has been forming lower highs in its very brief history however. A chance it could go lower? Below 90c perhaps? I might get some then. Closer to 80c would be attractive. Pure guesswork now. ;-p

I won't buy Mapletree as its gearing is almost 40% and the yield is only about 7.5%. REITs with gearing on the high side always run a chance of having to raise more capital and with yield at 25% lower than AIMS, it is a raw deal.

Drizzt said...

haha. the price looks pretty strong for Cache Log. whats the yield like now? 9%?

AK71 said...

Hi Drizzt,

CLT's yield is only about 8% at the current price. At 80c, it would be closer to 9.5%. Would be hard to resist then. Haha.. ;)

Drizzt said...

i just got it at 95 cents. will buy more if it drops to 80 cents. likely?

AK71 said...

Hi Drizzt,

You work fast! I guess if you are happy with an 8% yield, why not? :)

I personally think that there is a chance it might fall below 90c in the next few weeks as it formed a lower high. I might join you then as a fellow unitholder.

Of course, Mr. Market doesn't care what I think. ;p

Drizzt said...

there are certain times when i think had i delay pulling the trigger i might have missed it. This is probably one of those. so thats why.

AK71 said...

Hi Drizzt,

I am not overly enthusiastic about CLT. So, I shall wait. If it does not get to the price I want, I would give it a miss.

I know what you mean. If I do like a counter very much, I sometimes buy a small position first as a hedge in case the price goes up. ;)

Drizzt said...

taking position on this. if i see a macroeconomic downtrend i might be out of this sooner than i think.

AK71 said...

Hi Drizzt,

Let us keep an eye on things and look out for each other then. The downtrend seems to be intact for CLT as of now. I still want it below 90c. ;-p

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