On 18 January, Courage Marine gapped up as it opened at 22c. My overnight sell queue was filled as I reduced my exposure to the counter by half. At the time, I said "The BDI has already broken the previous low and it is yet unclear where the next low would be but with greater increase in bulk shipping capacity in the near future, upside could be limited as supply outstrips demand." Recently, the BDI has found another low and has turned up:
In its press release, Courage Marine's management said that "Based on the report from Deutsche Bank on Feb 9, 2011, the BDI may experience a possible turnaround from current low level and is expected to return to normal in 1 to 2 months’ time." I expect normal to mean 2,500 or so but that would still be a lower high. The future for bulk carriers looks difficult indeed if this were the case.
I also said that "I would hold on to see if price could go higher either through further developments in its plan to dual list in Hong Kong or through a possibly generous dividend payout." Well, a dividend of 0.71c per share has been declared. Not too spectacular although it represents a dividend payout ratio of 83% based on the net profit after tax.
What would I do now? Sell into strength, if the opportunity presents itself.
See press release here.
Related posts:
Courage Marine: Dual listing.
Courage Marine: Retreating to support.
0 comments:
Post a Comment