Capitaland: Testing support at $3.36.

I initiated a long position in Capitaland today at $3.38 and $3.36. This was after what I said in the last blog post on this counter: "The Fibo Fan connects the low of 17 March and the high of today. Now, what I am interested in are the positions of the golden ratios in the next few sessions. 38.2% would be at $3.38 and 50% would be at $3.32 in the next session. Notice how the 20dMA seems to coincide with the 50% line? This is likely to be a strong support, if tested. In between these two golden ratios, we find the 50dMA, still declining but gently so, at $3.36. This could provide some support as well."

So, am I going to put in another buy queue for tomorrow at $3.32? Nope, looking at the charts at the end of every day is what I do and the 50% Fibo Fan line is at $3.33 tomorrow. Before that, however, we could see price supported as it closes the gap at $3.34 (1 April). So, buy queues for tomorrow would be at $3.34 and $3.33 for me.

If I were to choose between Capitaland and CapitaMalls Asia, it would seem that the latter has stronger technicals. However, it would be wise not to put all the eggs in one basket, I guess.

Coincidentally, OCBC Investment Research just did a piece on Capitaland and I would like to share what they said here. Remember to take everything with a pinch of salt:
Chinese worries overwrought - BUY. With the Chinese government’s plan to build 36m low-income homes by 2015 and its increasing determination to curb property prices, we recognize the down-side risks from Chinese property prices. However, given CAPL’s current share price, we believe Chinese residential worries on CAPL are likely overwrought due to two reasons. First, Chinese residential exposure only takes up around 12% of CAPL’s total book assets (FY10, ex. cash). In addition, we believe major projects, such as the Paragon, are well thought-out and likely resilient in a weak market. We update our assumptions and maintain a BUY rating with a revised fair value of $4.10 (at parity to RNAV) versus $4.05 previously. Read complete report here.

CapitaMalls Asia: Pulling back to supports.

If we draw a trendline connecting the high of 6 Oct 2010 and 9 Feb 2011, we will get a trendline resistance which, more or less, was what limited the upside yesterday at $1.92. A doji formed yesterday suggesting indecision and a possible reversal. We have confirmation today as price closed lower at $1.85.

Immediate support is found at $1.83. Not only is this where the trendline support is approximating, it is also where we find many times tested resistance and supports in the candlesticks. If $1.83 were to give way, next supports are at $1.80 (50dMA) and $1.76 (rising 20dMA).

What would I do? I like what I see in the ADX. The +DI has the advantage and the ADX is rising. This could be an early uptrend forming. MACD is still rising in positive territory. Volume in the last two sessions were not very high as price experienced weakness. A correction at this stage to shake out some of the weaker holders is healthy so that the counter could form a firmer base for any further upward movement in price. Price has to climb a wall of worries and buying at supports in an uptrend is what I would do.

The overbought condition as seen in the MFI and RSI would have to be corrected and a meaningful pull back is more likely to happen than not. I will accumulate on weakness.

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: Strong uptrend emerging.