Tharman Shanmugaratnam has spoken.

I think Tharman Shanmugaratnam is a really brainy guy. He also did our country proud when he was selected as the Chairman of the International Monetary and Financial Committee.

When Tony Tan talks about the economy, I listen. When Tharman S. talks about the economy, I listen too and he has spoken.

"Tharman Shanmugaratnam told a conference that the world has now “entered a phase where there is a self reinforcing cycle” of a loss of consumer confidence, which is leading companies to hold back on investing.

“Asia will not be immune to a global slowdown,” Tharman said. The Singapore economy is highly reliant on international trade."


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Wage slaves should be fearful.

Singapore says global recession more likely than not
Tuesday, 06 September 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

Courage Marine: Added at 10.5c a share.

It has been some time since I wrote about Courage Marine. With the BDI in a downtrend, there was no reason to go long on this counter. The last time I did something pertaining to this counter was a divestment when news of a dual listing in Hong Kong was made known.

However, as I like the company, I have been tracking its performance which is of course closely tied to the BDI as most of its revenue is derived from spot rates.

The BDI was consolidating for many months. Since hitting a low in early 2011, 1,250 has been established as a support, four times tested no less. 1,500 was breached recently and retested successfully as support. The BDI has broken out of its consolidation phase and we could be seeing a trend reversal starting in earnest.

Courage Marine's share price went lower than its low of end 2008 recently. This means that the market expects the company to do worse than it did in the last recession but with the BDI breaking out of its consolidation phase to the upside, the fundamentals seem to suggest something else.

So, I have tip-toed back into Courage Marine, re-initiating a long position in the company. Technically, I am wary of initiating too big a long position because the declining 20dMA could push price lower again. If price were to overcome the 20dMA convincingly, we could see 12.5c and 13.5c tested next.

Related posts:
Courage Marine: Profit warning.