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First REIT: Resistance and supports.

Friday, January 13, 2012

First REIT has been very resilient. It is probably one of the better performers in my portfolio as well. A great investment for income.

However, investing for income does not mean that we cannot trade S-REITs from time to time especially if they remain range bound and somewhat predictable.



In the case of First REIT, if we look at the weekly chart, it is caught between the 50w and the 20w MAs. Immediate resistance is at 77.5c while immediate support is at 76.5c. Breaking immediate resistance could see 79.5c tested next while breaking immediate support could see 74.5c tested.

Now, which way would it go? My take? In the short term, price could go higher. Why?



Looking at the daily chart, we see the MACD just crossing into positive territory while the MFI overcame the 50% line which acted as resistance. The MFI continues to move higher.

However, the formation of a dragonfly doji on a day of relatively high volume suggests that selling pressure at 77c remains formidable. The longer it successfully prevents price from closing higher, the stronger it becomes as resistance.

Why does resistance at 77c seem so strong? It is the confluence of the 50d, 100d and 200d MAs.

SMRT: Downtrend intact.

Technically speaking, SMRT doesn't look good and I am not referring to its trains stalling. OK, bad joke.

Lower high and lower low in price are accompanied by a lower high and lower low in the MACD which is in negative territory. The downtrending MFI suggests reduced demand as the 50% line acted as resistance.



However, forming a doji provides some encouragement for long holders. The doji represents indecision and is a stalemate between bulls and bears.

That the doji formed despite higher volume on a day when price went lower than the low of the previous session suggests that there is some buying support. However, it could also be traders covering their short positions ahead of the weekends.

Single stick reversal signals are usually less reliable. For anyone who is interested in going long here, look out for confirmation next Monday.

If the signal is not confirmed, a lower low could form. $1.70? Perhaps.


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