Tea with Skipper: How much do we need to retire on?

Some time back, Skipper very graciously made me a promise to do a guest blog to share his thoughts on his retirement and what he thinks is sufficient for him in terms of money needed. True to his word, here is the blog:

First some caveats :
 

• What is written should not be construed as advice but merely the planning and thoughts of an individual who has stopped full time employment.
• To stop full time employment, you must not have any outstanding debts such as mortgages for your dwelling or any other item you cannot pay off immediately should the need arise.
• You do not have any dependants or children who are not earning their own living.
• You are of reasonably good health without any major dependency on long term expensive medical treatment.
• You own the dwelling you are living in.
• Circumstances will vary from individual to individual and the list is by no means exhaustive.

 

Now that the assumptions are out of the way, we can seriously look at the expenses you would incur when you don’t have a monthly salary. Before we look at the day to day expenses, some important and in fact necessary expenditure must be in place. In terms of importance, they are as follows :

Insurance

The most important are the H&S policies like MediShield. I cover my wife and me with the Enhanced IncomeShield with Riders. Better still if you can go for one that covers private hospitalisation as well. This is often one of the neglected areas, which will become very obvious when we fall sick and worse still if it is chronic.

Travel insurance if you make occasional trips abroad. Get an annual coverage if you travel often. We cover ourselves with an annual policy at $650 / year per person.

I intend to cancel all my WholeLife policies this year as we do not have any dependants. One policy which I have been faithfully paying for the past 20 years for a $75k coverage will return $38k. For TPD, I will buy a Personal Accident policy.

Annual Expenses

These would include Property Tax, Car Road Tax and Insurance and any other expenses which are particular to each of us.

Monthly and Daily Expenses

These would include conservancy charges, newspapers, PUB, telephone, internet, cable TV, petrol, parking charges, membership dues etc. List your own and tally the total amount.

Contingencies

Household maintenance/repair charges, replacement of appliances, dental treatments, car maintenance/repairs.

Leisure

Travelling expenses, course fees for leisure activities or classes. Set aside a certain amount for these activities. 

For my wife and I, we would need about $5,000 a month without the Leisure activities. We have put a sum of $20k for the leisure activities. So, it would all add up to $80k per year.

To be on the safe side, I have planned for a passive income of at least $100k per year but would prefer it to be $120k to cater for inflation in future. The additional sum can be reinvested for more income to cover inflation.

The $5,000 figure works for me but I am sure many would be able to do with lesser. One of the ways would be to cook at home more and eat out less. It is not only cheaper but also healthier as you can control what you put into the food you are eating. 

Please work out your own figures and add whatever buffers you feel comfortable with.

Skipper, thank you very much for sharing. :)

Read another guest blog:
Tea with EY: Money talk, money laugh.

Related post:
Why a wealthy nation cannot afford to retire?

Stock picking: Spotlight on Marco Polo Marine.

I received a very well written email from a reader with some very good questions. I have a gut feeling that the questions and my reply could be of interest to other readers and decided to publish our emails:

 

Hey AK,

I have been quite an avid reader of your blog since I chanced upon it last year. Your blog has taught me a lot about investing, in particular, fundamental analysis (I was a complete klutz on this before). I believed more in technical analysis back then, but your blog has shown that a good investor has to accord time and effort to both technical and fundamental analysis, in order to make rational decisions. So, just wanna say a word of thanks for showing me the ropes and helping me be a better investor.

I find your analysis very objective and illuminating, and truly I am learning something new with every post you publish. But above all, I am struck by your humbleness and willingness to help other budding investors out with tips to aid our financial journey. I dare say, precious few who are blessed with such good grasp of the market as you are, will be willing to share this with other people.

If you don't mind, I like to ask you a question on fundamental analysis, as I concede I am really terrible at it. Take for instance, Marco Polo Marine, where you have astutely highlighted out its sound fundamentals and strong economic moat. Can I just enquire what made Marco Polo stand out as an outstanding stock to you in the first place i.e. how did it get on your radar? I read that you noticed the high insider trades... is monitoring of insider trades a first requisite step to identifying strong fundamental plays? I'm asking because, there are so many companies out there, and one cannot possibly research everything, so I was wondering what aspect of their fundamentals you will notice first, before it gets on your "monitoring list" for further research? (Btw, I have taken your advice, and taken a closer look at MPM and am now vested in it too - so really wanna shoutout a word of thanks)

Secondly, and still on MPM, I understand that a great portion of the moat comes from the cabotage law. Would you say that actually this makes MPM rather vulnerable to policy uncertainities in Indonesia? For instance, if Indonesian authorities face strong appeals from the Indonesian oil and gas lobby and then decides to rescind the cabotage law - then surely MPM could be, pardon the pun, be left high and dry, its moat all gone. Additionally, is reflagging one's vessels under Indonesian colours a substantial barriers to entry? If not, then we could see supply (in terms of reflagged vessels) coming back into play, eroding any advtg MPM had. Of course, I do still have my eye on the attractive P/E of MPM at 6 vis a vis its peers e.g. Jaya, ASL. But in your opinion, if not for the Cabotage Law, would the P/E of 6 be sufficient reason for you to purchase MPM?

Keen to hear your thoughts on the matter, and once again, thanks for all your insights.

Cheers,
T..

 

 

My reply to T..:

 

Hi T..,

First off, I don't give advice. I am not allowed to. My blog is a place where I talk to myself and I cannot help it if people overhear what I say (as I talk rather loudly). If overhearing me talking to myself has helped you on your own journey, I am happy. ;)

Regarding Marco Polo Marine, yes, it was the continual insider buying that prompted me to dig into the stock. Insiders could sell their stakes for myriad reasons but to increase their stakes and by large amounts, it could only mean that they think the stock is undervalued.

Keeping a tab on insider buying activities is one way we could possibly find undervalued stocks since insiders know their businesses best. Of course, it should not be the only thing we look out for. We would still have to look into the numbers from reports and look at analyses by research houses if they are available.

As for how to generate a "monitoring list", I try to read as much as possible. I like to get a feel of macro economic trends which are helpful in telling us about the health and prospects of different sectors and countries. This is, of course, a top down approach.

This should be followed by a bottom up approach as we look at different companies with businesses in the sectors and countries which are likely to do well. Of course, this is where we examine the income statements, the balance sheets and the cash flow statements. Then, there are all the different ratios.

Having done all these, I would look at the charts as I believe technical analysis provides a window into the collective pyschology of market participants. In a bearish situation, cheap could get cheaper. In a bullish situation, dear could get dearer.

Then, make a decision. Of course, decision making is based on the best knowledge we have at any point in time. That best knowledge must also include the risks involved from a fundamental as well as a technical perspective.

The most important knowledge of all is self knowledge. Can we accept the risks involved? Don't just think of the possible gains. In the event that we should suffer a paper loss, how would we probably react? I always say that a peace of mind is priceless.

Now, all these might make me sound like I am infallible. I am not.

Sometimes, I get lazy. Sometimes, I make mistakes. Sometimes, I get in too early. Sometimes, I miss the boat.

Before I digress further, on your concern that Marco Polo Marine's moat might dry up, I would say it is a pertinent question.

I cannot make any representation as to how probable a change to the cabotage law in Indonesia is going to be. However, if we take the cue from Mr. Lee Wan Tang who probably knows the sentiments of the Indonesian government better than us, then, it is a reasonable risk that we are accepting as investors, isn't it?

Foreign competitors could reflag their vessels if they are willing to take a minority stake in a potential Indonesian counterpart. Whether they are willing to do this, I don't know.

Would Jaya be willing to go into a joint venture with an Indonesian company, taking a minority stake, so that 3 of their OSVs (in a fleet of almost 30) could get back into Indonesian waters? Your guess is as good as mine.

Marco Polo Marine was able to react very swiftly and decisively to the cabotage law because the Lee family are Indonesians and the Indonesian company that Marco Polo Marine took a 49% stake in was their own. Indonesia is Marco Polo Marine's own turf, so to speak.

To answer your last question, although the cabotage law has been fortuitous for the company, without it, Marco Polo Marine's much cheaper valuation against its peers in the sector would be compelling reason enough for me to buy its stock as sector fundamentals suggest that positives are on the horizon.

I hope that I have addressed all your concerns.

Best wishes,
AK

 

Related posts:

1. Recommended books for FA and TA.

2. 5 rules for successful stock investing.

3. Little book of value investing.

4. Be comfortable with being invested.

5. Risks, risks and risks.
6. Marco Polo Marine: Insider buying continues.