With MIIF divesting TBC, unit holders will no longer be getting income distributions twice a year from the Fund in future.
This is because MIIF receives income from TBC in March and September while it receives income from HNE and CXP in September only.
MIIF will have a DPU of about 0.7c in August 2013 which is from the final income received from TBC. A DPU of about 1.2c will be paid out in March 2014 which will be for income received from HNE and CXP.
In future, we should expect only once a year distribution from MIIF for income received from HNE and CXP. Also, do not expect 1.2c to be the norm either as it is expected that the tolling revisions for HNE will adversely affect DPU for the full year starting in 2014.
What would be a fair value per unit for MIIF when it resumes trading?
In recent past, MIIF was trading at about 63c a unit and with an annual DPU of 5.5c, unit holders were enjoying a distribution yield of some 8.73%. For ease of calculation, let us be generous and assume that an annual DPU of 1.2c will be the norm. This would give us a fair value of 14c per unit, thereabouts, in order to have a similar yield. This would mean a decline in price of some 49c per unit!
If this estimate should gel with Mr. Market, unit holders would have been better off selling at 63c a unit prior to the voluntary trading suspension since unit holders are only getting 44.329c per unit from the divestment of TBC either in cash or in APPT units (priced at 97c per unit).
It would also mean that anyone with a purchase price of 58c or lower per unit, prior to the trading suspension, is quite "safe" while anyone with a higher purchase price could lose money.
Of course, there is a chance that APPT could see higher unit price when trading starts and there is also a chance that MIIF might not see its own unit price plunging to 14c per unit. If this should be the case, then, this effort by the management to unlock value for unit holders could be declared a success.
Anyway, now that we have some ballpark figures, we will be able to make some snap decisions tomorrow, if required, keeping in mind that any investment at the right price is a good investment.
See:
MIIF dividend guidance.
See:
APPT offer price and MIIF APPT units.
Related post:
MIIF: Asian Pay Television Trust (APTT).