Croesus Retail Trust: Initiated long position at 87c.

I love Japan and with the Japanese Yen so low now, I am planning a trip to the Land of the Rising Sun in December. 

This might have something to do with why I initiated a long position in Croesus Retail Trust. You think so? Nah.

Croesus Retail Trust is a business trust which owns 4 shopping malls in Japan. Its IPO in May priced its units at 93c a piece which meant a slight premium of 3.3% over its NAV of 90c a unit.


Luz Shinsaibashi is a new retail building in Osaka.

The Trust dangled a distribution yield of 8% and investors lapped it up, pushing the unit price to a high of $1.18 on the first day of trading. 

An auspicious number for the Cantonese people perhaps as it sounds like "prosper everyday" but not for those who bought some then. 

Unit price declined over the next 4 months to touch a low of 84.5c on 17 Sep for an almost 29% drop.

Buying at a discount to NAV and getting a relatively high yield is an attractive combination for me. The bug bear is the relatively high gearing level of about 44%. 

Any yield accretive acquisition will probably be funded through a blend of debt and equity. So, for someone who might not have the resources to participate in a rights issue, this is something to bear in mind.

Although trading at a discount to NAV and offering a relatively high distribution yield, there was nothing to prevent unit price from declining further after touching 84.5c on 17 Sep. The good news for unit holders is that it did not.

Indeed, unit price seems to have found a floor with many times tested support at 85.5c. The confluence of the 50d and 20d MAs form the immediate support at 87c. 

With the downtrend broken and unit price moving sideways now, I decided that downside risk has reduced from a technical perspective.

The 180 days lock-up for the sponsor and their strategic partners in the Trust will end sometime this month. Will they sell 50% of their stakes? 

With trading volume so low, it could drive unit price down by quite a few notches if they should do so. Well, I simply don't know.

What I do know is that at 87c per unit, I am buying at a 3.33% discount to NAV and I will receive an estimated 8.5% distribution yield. 

If price action should test the support at 85.5c, I might buy more because there would be a bigger margin of safety then.

Now, I look forward to the Trust's first income distribution which is expected to be paid in March 2014.

Related post:
Invest in Japanese real estate: Croesus Retail Trust.

Have a break!

This is something I have pretty often for my afternoon tea breaks:

Wholemeal bread. So healthy!


So, what's inside? Er... ahem...

So yummy!