Golden Agriculture: Reversal confirmed.

Last Friday, I suggested that Golden Agriculture spotted a Bullish Harami Cross pattern.  OBV showed a cessation of distribution and a reversal to accumulation.

Price action formed an inverted white hammer today with OBV continuing its rise and the MFI upturning, suggesting a return of buying momentum.  The MACD also spots a buy signal today.  The support at 54.5c is confirmed and is underpinned by the 50dMA.  Immediate resistance at 56c.  In the event that this is taken out, next resistance is at 57.5c.  This is followed by 60c, the recent high. 

The rising 100dMA is at 52c and the rising 200dMA is at 47c.  The longer term uptrend is intact.  In the immediate term, we want to see the price closing above 55c to rejoin the uptrending channel to resume the short term uptrend.  A close above 56c would be a firm signal that the short term uptrend is back in play. Vested.

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Golden Agriculture: Reversal signal?

Golden Agriculture was sold down yesterday due to negative news regarding Sinar Mas group:

Cargill wants Sinar Mas to address concerns over its agri practices. Cargill has threatened to drop Sinar Mas as a supplier if it fails to address general concerns over alleged illegal logging, a statement on its website said. Top European palm-oil buyers such as Unilever and Nestle have already stopped buying palm oil from Sinar Mas after Greenpeace released a report about forest clearing by Sinar Mas. A statement on the Cargill website said the firm had asked the secretariat of the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO) − an industry body of planters and green groups − to investigate the allegations made by Greenpeace "about illegal forest clearance and the Indonesian palm oil company, Sinar Mas.".....

There are two listed plantation companies listed under the Sinar Mas Group: Golden Agri and PT Smart. If Cargill pulls Sinar Mas from its supplier list, Golden Agri’s reputation in the palm-oil products market could be further dented. Furthermore, Cargill would become the third client to remove Sinar Mas from their supplier lists. To recap, Unilever and Nestle have stopped buying from the Sinar Mas Group since Dec 09 and Feb 10, respectively. Unilever accounted for 3% and Nestle for 0.2% of Golden Agri’s sales in 2009. Should Cargill follow suit, the impact could be more material at around 5% of its sales...

Read full report:
http://www.remisiers.org/research//GoldenAgri-260310[1].pdf

Golden Agriculture's price action today formed a doji, closing at 54.5c, seemingly recapturing this support level.  A doji formed after a long black candle in the previous session is a possible two stick reversal pattern which chart watchers call the Bullish Harami Cross pattern.

Although the MFI is down, suggesting a weakening buying momentum, the OBV has turned up suggesting that distribution has stopped for now and, indeed, reversed to see some accumulation.

We will need confirmation in the next session to see if the reversal signal is valid.  In the event of a reversal, the initial resistance is at 56c, a many times tested support turned resistance.  This is followed by 57.5c and 60c, the recent high.

CapitaMalls Asia: White spinning top.

A possible reversal signal is observed in CapitaMalls Asia's chart today: a white spinning top.  This has happened on the back of lower volumes as its price declined, suggesting a classic textbook case of a low volume pullback.  MFI has flattened while the OBV is still showing a gradual rise.  This suggests that the selling momentum has stalled and that accumulation is ongoing.

The 50dMA seems determined to act as the immediate support as its rate of decline slows.  The price action is caught between the 50dMA and the 20dMA which has flattened at $2.31.

Bollinger bands will squeeze as the volatility in price action falls.  The probability of an upward movement in price is higher than a downward movement in this instance.  The target of such an upward movement is the top of the base formation which is also where we find major resistance and that is at $2.55.