CitySpring Infrastructure Trust: Thoughts on divestment.

On 5 Oct, OCBC reported that they were suspending coverage on CitySpring Infrastructure Trust as they see limited positive price catalysts in the near term. Furthermore, Hydro Tasmania which is owned by the Australian government is proceeding with dispute resolution and is demanding for A$6.9m in commercial risk sharing mechanism (CRSM).

For a long time now, I have regarded my investment in CitySpring Infrastructure Trust as a mistake. I blogged about it in "High Yields: Successes, failures and the in betweens."

With a quarterly DPU of 1.05c, the yield is 6.94% at the current unit price of 60.5c.  As of 30 June 2010, it had S$1,450,941,000 in borrowings against S$2,014,838,000 of total assets. This gives a gearing level of 72%. This is being optimistic as intangibles account for S$432,026,000 of total assets. Yield is not fantastic and gearing level is extremely high.

Comparing CitySpring Infrastructure Trust with K-Green Trust, we see that the latter has a similar yield but with zero gearing, it is almost immediately apparent that K-Green Trust presents a more compelling proposition.

At CitySpring Infrastructure Trust's current unit price, removing it from my frozen portfolio would result in a small loss but with the many quarters of income distribution collected, I would probably end up with a small gain.  Time to close a chapter, I think.

View slides here.

Related post:
K-Green Trust: Possibly stabilised.

Genting SP: Bollinger bands narrowing.

The Bollinger bands are narrowing on Genting SP's chart.  This usually precedes a large magnitude price movement. Would it be up or down? Your guess is as good as mine.

Yesterday, I mentioned that "the 20dMA was breached as recently as last week (and) does not inspire confidence that it would be a strong support". Today, price broke under the 20dMA and it seems that $2.02 is now resistance but this needs confirmation. Price could retreat to the recent low at $1.85 which could act as immediate support. If that breaks, we could see the rising 50dMA as the next support.

The MACD continues to decline beneath the signal line in positive territory while the MFI has formed a lower high. The correction is in earnest but overall momentum is still positive.

Related post:
Genting SP: Fatigue.

Hock Lian Seng: Retreating.

On 5 Oct, I mentioned that there was "strong demand and accumulation but buying momentum (was) muted by strong selling pressure at resistance (32c)" and that "I sold some of my shares at the 32c target .... Although I still see strong support at 30c where we find the rising 20dMA, 30.5c could very well be resistance turned support."

Today, Hock Lian Seng retreated and closed at 30.5c, the support provided by the 20dMA. However, the retreating price is on the back of much reduced volume and does not worry me. Could the support at 30.5c hold? With the MACD on the verge of forming a bearish crossover with the signal line, we could see share price tested further on the downside.  This is especially true when we realise that the MFI has been entrenched in overbought territory for a few sessions now. This could be corrected in future sessions.  The RSI has formed a higher high which suggests to me that the buying momentum is intact.

What would I do? Notice that the 20dMA has been guiding the price of this counter higher? See the uptrend support is in between the 20dMA and 50dMA? This would be at about 30c.  The 50dMA is at 29.5c.  I would buy more at these price levels.  For anyone who is not vested but would like to be, buying some at the 20dMA (30.5c) could be a nice hedge.

Related post:
Hock Lian Seng: Target hit.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Resistance.

This REIT's price action is testing 23c resistance, the upper end of the old trading range (20c to 23c).  Looking at the trade summary, of the 58 trades done, more than half (36) were buy ups at 23c but the volume was only 260 lots out of a total of 2,339 lots which changed hands.  This suggests to me that the buy ups at 23c lacked conviction.  23c is still a significant resistance to watch, it would seem.

Could 23c be taken out? The MACD has completed a bullish crossover with the signal line in positive territory. The MACD histogram buy signal has been confirmed.  OBV is up, suggesting accumulation.  MFI has formed a higher low, suggesting that the longer term demand is intact.  There is a chance that 23c could be taken out.  Then, the next resistance would be the recent high of 23.5c.

With all the daily MAs rising gently, this REIT could be on a sustainable uptrend and I would accumulate on weakness.

Related post:
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Good value.