Healthway Medical: Uptrend threatened.

On 11 Aug, I blogged about how Healthway Medical's support at 18.5c had been compromised and that price could go lower. I said that "It is likely that 17c could be tested as a support sooner than later".  Then, for a few days in late August and early September, price actually sank below 17c before recovering.

Today, the support at 17c crumbled on high volume.  That 17c was taken out when it is where the rising 200dMA is approximating is very bearish since the 200dMA is supposed to be a rather strong support. The last time this happened was in the second half of May this year but price rapidly recovered.  How high are the chances of such a recovery this time round?

Take note that the volume today was very much higher than back in May as the counter was sold down.  Back in May, the MACD was also poised to do a bullish crossover with the signal line while, this time round, it is dipping into negative territory. Lower highs spotted on the MFI and RSI, suggesting a weakening demand and slowing buying momentum.

Drawing a trendline support connecting the lows of 30 Dec 09 and 25 May 10, we see this support approximating 16c which happens to be a many times tested support from March to April this year.  16c is likely to be psychologically important as a support.  So, if it could hold up, it could provide the base for a rebound.

If the support at 16c breaks, the uptrend is well and truly over.  We could witness a massive selling down to 14c then (the 138.2% Fibo line), followed by 13c (the 161.8% Fibo line).  So, all eyes would be on 16c.

I have a very small position in Healthway Medical left which consists of rights shares and scrip dividends, average cost should be in the region of 12c, having divested >95% of my investment in the company earlier this year.  Good luck to all shareholders.

Singapore to allow stronger currency; economy shrinks: Update
Thursday, 14 October 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Related posts:
Replies from AK71: Entry price for Healthway Medical.

Saizen REIT: Divestment of 3 properties.

Saizen REIT divested 3 more properties in its YK Shintoku portfolio:

Higashi Hakushima Y Building was sold for JPY 145,000,000 (S$2.3 million).  This property is located in Hiroshima, was built in March 2003 and comprises 19 residential units and 4 car park lots. It has an annual property income of approximately JPY 15.1 million or a gross yield of 10.41%. This was sold at a discount of approximately 7.1% to valuation.

Otemachi Y Building was sold for JPY 170,170,000 (S$2.7 million). This property is located in Hiroshima, was built in March 2001 and comprises 24 residential units and 2 car park lots. It has an annual property income of approximately JPY 17.0 million or a gross yield of 9.99%. This was sold at a discount of approximately 5.5% to valuation.

Kinyacho Y Building was sold for JPY 180,542,826 (S$2.9 million).  This property is located in Hiroshima, was built in February 2002 and comprises 24 residential units and 2 car park lots. It has an annual property income of approximately JPY 18.3 million or a gross yield of 10.14%. This was sold at a discount of approximately 4.0% to valuation.


A total of JPY 495,712,826 (S$7.9 million) was fully paid up by the buyers on 13 October 2010. The proceeds will be used for partial repayment of the YK Shintoku CMBS.

Read announcement here.

Related post:
Saizen REIT's properties: Would I buy?

SPH: Negative divergence.

SPH's volume exploded as it declared a dividend of 20c to be paid in December. However, the explosion in volume only managed to produce a doji yesterday.  Not good.  Higher volume but price remained stagnant which means that the bears were too strong for the bulls.  Today, price plunged below the 20dMA ($4.20) to close at $4.18 on comparatively high volume.

I guess the market does not like the announcement that SPH "will restore the remaining portion of the pay cuts introduced in April 2009. In addition, SPH will give a special one-off sum to staff to thank them for the sacrifice and contributions they have made. These payments will take effect by January 2011 and will effectively restore the pay cuts in full. They will be paid together with the usual increments, and profit and performance related bonuses." Read announcement here.

Looking at the MACD, we see lower highs formed as price formed higher highs.  This negative divergence is a warning that recent price appreciation in the blue chip could be unsustainable.  $4.20 could be support turned resistance.  This needs confirmation.  

Next support is at $4.13 which is underpinned by the rising 50dMA on top of being a natural candlestick support level.  The uptrendline approximates the 50dMA and the lower Bollinger band at $4.10.  A break below this trendline would signal the end of the existing uptrend.  We could see a new and gentler uptrend forming if the 100dMA (now at $4.00) or the 200dMA (now at $3.91) hold up as the next support levels.

I remember someone asking me if it was too late to buy into SPH yesterday, if it was too expensive.  I guess the answer could either be found in the fundamentals or the technicals.  Technically, $4.10 to $4.13 seem to be pretty ok entry prices but if these go, there could be as much as a 5% downside which could be covered by the 20c dividend in December anyway.  Just my thoughts.  Not an inducement to buy. Vested. ;-)

Related post:
SPH: Final dividend.

>1000 unique visitors in a day!

Not too long ago, I was impressed when a local investment blog proclaimed it was visited by 1000 unique visitors on that day. That was really something! After all, local investment blogs are usually not known for generating high traffic. We are in a very small niche and, to make it tougher, it is a very small niche in a very small country. ;)

Anyway, yesterday, on 13 October 2010, Wednesday, A Singaporean Stockmarket Investor (ASSI) was visited by 1069  unique visitors.  This is another milestone for my blog and I sincerely thank one and all who helped to make this a reality! I hope you enjoy reading my blog as much as I enjoy blogging. :)

14 Oct 2010 (Thursday)