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LMIR: Foreign exchange forward contracts.

Friday, November 5, 2010

LMIR reported stronger earnings for 3QFY2010. Distributable income at $11.7 million. DPU at 1.09c is higher than the 1.04c in the last quarter. This represents a marginal increase of 4.8% over the previous quarter despite revenue increasing 53% year on year. LMIR also managed to have rate increase in rental renewals to the tune of 16%! Indonesia is doing well, as I expected.

Unfortunately, the management lost $2.9m in foreign exchange forward contracts. Without these contracts, the distributable income would increase by 24%! A DPU of 1.35c for an annualised DPU of 5.4c? Now, that would be in line with its actual performance on the ground!

The management is singing the old tune that these contracts are a prudent measure to protect its income denominated in the Indonesian Rupiah. The very strong Rupiah has caused it to lose money quarter after quarter on these contracts. Who is making money, I wonder?

What do they expect from an economy that actually weathered the last financial crisis unscathed? Indonesia was one of only three Asian economies that did not go into a recession, the other two being China and India! These contracts should have been reduced significantly in the last three quarters! I have wondered on various occasions why the CFOs of LMIR could never last very long. Did they go against the idea of having foreign exchange forward contracts? I keep wondering.

Having said this, the REIT remains a relatively safe investment that should generate consistent income for unitholders although its inability to deliver significantly higher DPU is galling, given such impressive growth in revenue.




Related post:
LMIR: DPU reduced 20%.

Saizen REIT: Huge sell down in consolidation phase.

Just as I said on 2 Nov, "I noticed that there seems to be more buying interest in Saizen REIT today too. Of 3,260 lots that changed hands today, 2,968 lots were bought up at 16c. This could just be an anomaly or this could be the beginning of something bigger. Who can say for sure? A crack in the wall of worries? Perhaps.", the counter experienced heavy volume sell down on 3 Nov. The wall of worries was very much intact.


The golden cross between the rising 20dMA and the 50dMA failed to materialise as 20,291 lots were sold down at 15.5c out of 24,231 lots traded. MFI sank deeper into oversold territory, suggesting very weak demand.  This is confirmed by the OBV which showed extreme distribution activity that day. The consolation seemed to be that the selling at 15.5c was very well absorbed, considering that volume was at least 6 times more than the previous session which in itself was a rather high volume day for such a thinly traded counter.


On 4 Nov, I was kind of disappointed that the volume dried up.  I was hoping for more panic selling which might allow me to buy some at 15c.  Wishful thinking, it seems.

Related post:
Saizen REIT: More buying interest.

The best way to trade the Singapore Index: SiMSCI warrants.

Wednesday, November 3, 2010

Macquarie introduces a new warrant to the Singapore market. Macquarie's SiMSCI warrants allow investors to take a leveraged view on movements in the broader Singapore sharemarket.

Macquarie's warrants allow you to take a leveraged exposure to the SiMSCI with no margin calls or forced selling, thus limiting your capital at risk. Macquarie has listed both call and put warrants, so you can potentially profit from both rises and falls in the market.

99.9% correlation with Straits Times Index (STI)
The MSCI Singapore Index has a basket of 30 stocks and tracks the Straits Times index (STI) very closely. In fact, the MSCI Singapore Index has a 99.9% correlation with the STI over a period of two years, and a 99.6% correlation over five years.

SiMSCI - the only liquid alternative to the STI
The SiMSCI is the name for the futures over the MSCI Singapore Index, and tracks it closely. The SiMSCI is much more liquid than the STI futures in terms of volume traded. In fact, the SiMSCI is the only liquid alternative to trade a Singapore sharemarket index.

For both futures expiring in August, the SiMSCI had 228,287 contracts traded (for the month of Aug 2010) while the STI futures only had 6 contracts traded over the same period of time.

Why SiMSCI warrants?
As the SiMSCI is a liquid and efficient futures market it provides a live tradable market reference price for the warrants to track, this makes it a more transparent and easy reference point for warrant investors. Investors can now see the live SiMSCI price at this website and also the dedicated live SiMSCI pricing page which includes a list of the current warrants.

Read more about it at http://www.warrants.com.sg/en/warrants/simsci_live_e.cgi


FAQ: What are warrants?
A warrant is a powerful investment tool that enables you to gain exposure to a security for a fraction of its price. Warrants can be used to either increase or decrease your level of risk and, unlike ordinary shares, they can be used to profit from both a rise and fall in asset price.

Macquarie Warrants are available over individual shares or indices, they are listed on the SGX and can be bought and sold like ordinary shares.

A warrant gives the holder the opportunity to buy or sell a share at a future date for a fixed price. The two basic types of Warrants are "Call Warrants" and "Put Warrants". Call Warrants give investors the potential to profit from share price rises. Put Warrants give investors the potential to profit from share price falls.

A Call Warrant gives the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy the underlying share at a fixed price known as the "exercise price" at a future date or, in the case of a cash settled warrant to receive a cash settlement amount reflecting the amount by which the share is above the exercise price. A Put Warrant gives the holder the right, but not the obligation, to sell the underlying share to the Warrant Issuer at the exercise price, or, in the case of a cash settled warrant to receive a cash settlement amount reflecting the amount by which the share price is below the exercise price.

The price at which a warrant holder may buy or sell the underlying shares or the price used in determining the cash settlement amount is known as the exercise price.

A call warrant is said to be out-of-the-money when the exercise price is higher than the share price and in-the-money when the exercise price is lower than the share price.

A call warrant will be worthless if the share price is lower than the exercise price on the expiry day. However, with upward movements in the share price, the holder can still earn excellent returns trading the warrant prior to the expiry date.

The opposite occurs for a put warrant. It will be in-the-money when the exercise price is above the share price and out-of-the-money when the exercise price is below the share price. With downward movements in the share price, the holder can make profits trading the put warrant prior to its expiry date.

Advertorial

Asian REITs 1H 2010.

Tuesday, November 2, 2010

The report by CBRE RESEARCH (ASIA) titled REITS AROUND ASIA 1H 2010 makes for interesting reading. See the following two paragraphs from the report regarding S-REITs:

The total market capitalisation of S-REITs stood at US$21.1 billion as of the end of the first half, making it the second largest REIT market in Asia after Japan. The outlook for S-REITs is stable as the sector continues to be supported by the strong rebound in Singapore’s economy, the stabilisation of rents across the retail, office and industrial property sub-sectors  as well as the steady performance and lower refinancing risk of many S-REITs.

The simplicity of S-REITs as an investment instrument, their strong underlying fundamentals and relatively risk averse nature continue to make them an attractive option for investors. The S-REIT market has developed and matured over the last eight years, in size as well as in complexity and depth. S-REIT portfolios now cover a wide array of assets in retail, commercial, industrial, healthcare, hospitality and residential sectors, all of which are situated in diverse locations around the region. Investors in REITs have also evolved and now look towards the potential of a REIT’s property portfolio. These include factors such as asset type, geographical location, occupancy rates, demographics, lease terms, tenant quality and diversity, all of which combine to provide support for the portfolio’s aggregate rental income and in turn the sustainability and stability of the REIT’s distributable income. Investors also consider the REIT manager as this directly involves the development and implementation of the REIT’s investment strategy, the management of its portfolio and capital structure to foster long-term profitability.

Read complete research paper here.


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