Golden Agriculture: Negative divergence.

On 8 Nov, I mentioned that "Even though a very long white candle formed today to close at the day's high of 78c, it is worth noting that volume was not as high as 13 Oct. The picture of negative divergence between volume and price is still present. Price moved higher today due to a lack of sellers and not an abundance of buyers. It would take a very brave person to load up to go long at this stage."

Although Golden Agriculture reported commendable results today with a 41% year on year increase in net profit to US$99 million (S$127 million) for the third quarter ending 30 Sep (3Q2010), the attempt by price to go higher was half hearted as it touched a high of 78.5c before closing at 76c. The very long upper wick on this short bodied white candle hints of strong selling pressure. Volume is relatively low and the negative divergence between price and volume is still all too visible.

Immediate support is at 75c and if this breaks, we could see 70c tested. This could well happen as both MFI and RSI are bordering on overbought and could retreat to retest their respective trendline supports. Buying on pullbacks is still the prudent thing to do.

Golden Agri-Resources sees 41% rise in 3Q net profit to $127m. Golden Agri-Resources says demand for palm oil, which is predominantly used for food purposes, is expected to be well-supported into the medium to long term by the growing consumption of edible oils and fats particularly by the growing middle class in highly-populated developing countries such as China, India and Pakistan.
Thursday, 11 November 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Kim Eng cautions against palm-oil over-exuberance. “Ultimately, supply shortfalls mean that there is less inventory of CPO for these companies to sell. CPO price increases would simply be offsetting this, and likely revenue-neutral.”
Thursday, 11 November 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Related post:
Golden Agriculture: Breaking resistance.

Saizen REIT: 1Q FY2011 results.

Saizen REIT's 1Q FY2011 results did not disappoint. Here are the important points:

1. Gross revenue improved quarter on quarter from S$15,536,000 to S$16,274,000 or a gain of 4.75%.  This is largely due to a strengthening JPY against the S$.

2. Net property income (NPI) improved quarter on quarter from S$10,205,000 to S$11,389,000 or a gain of 11.6%! This is due largely to a reduction in property operating expenses.

3. Taking away fees and expenses shows net income from operations improved quarter on quarter from S$4,998,000 to S$6,012,000 or a gain of 20.29%!

What I find most bracing about the report is on page 6 which details the distributable income from operations for 1Q FY2011.  Distributable income for the period is JPY 204,943,000.  This amount could have been 50% higher if not for the amortising nature of Saizen REIT's loans. JPY113,397,000 was used for loan amortisation.

Loan amortisation will reduce funds used in interest payment for the REIT, going forward. This would translate to more funds available for distribution to unitholders in future, everything else remaining constant. There was also a one-off expense of JPY14,976,000 which was incurred due to the refinancing of GK Choan's loan. This is non-recurring. We could, therefore, expect the distributable income for 2Q FY2011 and subsequent quarters to be higher.

Everything else remaining constant, I estimate the distributable income for 2Q FY2011 to be JPY 220,000,000 or 7.4% higher than 1Q FY2011. Total distributable income for 1H FY2011 is, therefore, estimated to be JPY 424,943,000. Number of units in issue now at 1,111,003,000.  DPU estimated at JPY 0.38. Based on the rate of S$1 = JPY63.3, it means a DPU of 0.6c in March 2011.

Update on YK Shintoku loan

To-date, YK Shintoku has divested a total of 16 properties (5 properties in FY2010, 5 properties in 1Q FY2011 and 6 properties in October and November 2010) as part a deleveraging plan implemented to reduce the absolute amount of the loan of YK Shintoku and the leverage of the corresponding property portfolio, so as to facilitate refinancing efforts.

The loan of YK Shintoku has been reduced from JPY 7.1 billion (S$111.6 million1) as at 30 June 2010 to about JPY 5.6 billion (S$88.1 million) as at the date hereof. Taking into account applicable cash reserves of JPY 0.6 billion (S$9.4 million) maintained by YK Shintoku under the loan agreement, the net outstanding loan of YK Shintoku amounts to approximately JPY 5.0 billion (S$78.6 million). Several divestments of YK Shintoku’s properties are expected in the coming months to reduce the loan amount further.


The amount of S$14.9 million, or approximately JPY 0.9 billion, of warrant proceeds received as at 9 November 2010, have yet to be deployed. Saizen REIT has 328,082,705 warrants which are outstanding and could potentially result in S$29.5 million, or approximately JPY 1.9 billion, of further warrant proceeds being raised1. These warrant proceeds may be applied towards the refinancing of the loan of YK Shintoku (if such refinancing is possible). Saizen REIT also has an aggregate of approximately JPY 12.0 billion (S$188.7 million) of unencumbered properties which can be used as collateral for new loans.

Update on next distribution

Property operations are expected to remain stable, generating steady cash flow to enable Saizen REIT to continue paying out semi-annual distributions. The next distribution payment is expected to take place in March 2011 in respect of distributable cash accumulated in the six months financial period ending 31 December 2010.

Results announcement here.

Related post:
Saizen REIT: AGM on 19 Oct 10.

First REIT: Rights issue.

For a while now, there has been expectation of First REIT doing some acquisitions and in the process would have the need to raise funds. First REIT's management announced on 9 Nov 10 a 5 for 4 rights issue at 50c per unit.

The Mochtar Riady Comprehensive Cancer Centre (“MRCCC”) is being acquired from Wincatch Limited, an unrelated third party, for S$170.5 million, and Siloam Hospitals Lippo Cikarang (“SHLC”) is being acquired from the sponsor of First REIT, PT Lippo Karawaci Tbk, for S$35.0 million.Read announcement here.

Including fees and expenses, MRCCC would cost S$174.6m while SHLC would cost S$35.9m.  Total acquisition cost: S$210.5m. The rights issue would raise gross proceeds of $178.2m. First REIT would take a 4 year term loan facility of S$50m from OCBC to make up the balance.

The rights issue would more than double the number of units in issue to 624,104,000 units. So, although the NAV increases to S$474,200,000, post rights, NAV per unit would decline from 98c to 76c. Gearing level is largely unchanged and remains low as much of the funds required for the acquisitions is obtained through equity and not debt.

Of greater interest to unitholders is the distributable income which would increase 84% post acquisitions from S$20,964,000 to S$38,542,000. The annualised DPU would, however, reduce from 7.62c to 6.18c due to the larger number of units in issue. So, is this rights issue a good deal for existing unitholders? To answer this question, look to distribution yield.

The theoretical ex-rights price (TERP) is calculated to be 70c based on a CR price of 95c.  At 95c, the yield, with an annualised DPU of 7.62c is 8.02%.  At the TERP of 70c and an expected annualised DPU of 6.18c, XR, the yield is 8.83%. So, this acquisition is distribution yield accretive and is good for current unitholders.

Unitholders have the option to sell their nil-paid rights when trading starts if they do not wish to pay for them. Based on the exercise price of 50c and the TERP of 70c, we could see the selling of the nil-paid rights at 20c or so. This could be viewed as a return of capital.

Assuming that a unitholder has 4 lots in First REIT and is entitled 5 lots of rights. By selling the nil-paid rights at 20c per unit, he would get $1,000. This is the difference between the CR price of 95c and the TERP of 70c (i.e. 25c x 4,000). There is no capital gain per se. However, the distribution yield on his existing investment will actually improve from 8.02% to 8.83% without him having to cough up more funds. So, am I saying that we should sell the rights? Well, if we do not have enough funds to pay for the rights, this is not a bad idea.

Personally, I would pay for the rights. This is because the distribution yield would improve 10% from 8.02% to 8.83% with the acquisitions and rights issue. So, the additional funds I am putting in would enjoy a most attractive yield.

Furthermore, from the recent experience with the rights issue of AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT in which the TERP was 21c, the XR unit price ended higher and it is currently trading at 22.5c. So, with First REIT, we could see the XR price higher than the TERP of 70c. How much higher? Based on the assumption that units should trade closer to 8.02% yield, the CR yield at 95c, we could see First REIT's unit price going 10% higher to 77c, XR. Accepting and paying for the rights could, therefore, lead to capital gains.

Good luck to fellow unitholders.

See slides here.

Related post:
First REIT: This one is for keeps.

Saizen REIT: Divestment of Jewel Town Suehiro.

Saizen REIT divested another property, Jewel Town Suehiro, which is located in Hakodate. It was built in August 1991 and comprises 30 residential units and 8 car park lots.

The property was sold to an independent private investor for a cash consideration of JPY 146,042,400 (S$2.3 million).  This was at a 2.1% premium to the property's valuation of JPY 143m. Selling at a premium to valuation is good news and supports the argument that there is strengthening demand for Japanese real estate.

Referring to the annual report, as of 30 June 2010, Jewel Town Suehiro was 100% occupied and brought in a total annual rental income of JPY19,327,440. This means a gross yield of 13.2%. A good deal for the buyer.

Following loan repayment from sale proceeds of the Current Divestment, the remaining balance of the YK Shintoku Loan is estimated to be approximately JPY 5.6 billion (S$88.6 million).

Taking into account applicable cash reserves of JPY 0.6 billion (S$9.5 million) maintained by YK Shintoku under the loan agreement, the net outstanding loan of YK Shintoku amounts to approximately JPY 5.0 billion (S$79.1 million). 

Read report here.