A letter from a reader in his early 20s.

I received an email from a reader in his early-20s.  I was very pleased to read it as this is one of the things my blog hopes to do and that is to be a positive influence in the lives of ordinary people, encouraging them to save and invest for a more secure financial future. I am sharing the email here and I hope it would encourage younger readers to plan early and be financially prudent:

:) Read your posts, about financial planning. I realised that in recent months, i have pay for focus on the need to grow my money, even though it may be just 3000/year. I used to spend a lot, sales mean must buy. Now, i focus only on spending for trips to get the experience, and less shopping. Other than that, i did not spend much, and even find reckless spending, and credit buying quite disgusting.
travel means saving on accomodation through hostel or couchsurfing.

Aiming to save 50% of my salary, ex-CPF. 2600 salary, save 1k/month, 500 monthly expenses, 300 to parents, and 200 for whatever bills/medical expenses.

i think the current generations, not a lot of people focus on saving.... with my friends spending on branded stuff. haiz.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT and Singapore's 5.8% growth in October exports.

Singapore's economy is humming along nicely.  Manufacturing is doing well.

Strong Singapore exports signal inflation - StanChart 
Tuesday, 16 November 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

A REIT which I like very much is an industrial properties S-REIT, AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT.  With the economy chugging along and exports doing well, this REIT is likely to benefit.

At 10.43AM, there was a single transaction buying up 8,652 lots at 22.5c. That's big money.  At the end of the day, 19,221 lots changed hands making AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT the top volume REIT today. 15,090 lots were BUY UPs of which 752 lots were BUY UPs at 23c which is the upper limit of the current trading range and the resistance to watch.

My immediate target for this counter is 26c. How did I arrive at this value? Fundamentally, this would mean a yield of 8% with an annualised DPU of 2.08c for 2011. This, I feel, is fair for a smallish REIT with leasehold industrial real estate in Singapore. Technically, 26c would be the upper limit of the next trading band of 23c to 26c, if we believe that the current trading band is 20c to 23c which has been the case since the counter's CR days.

"Singapore's non-oil domestic exports (NODX) surged a better-than-expected 34.5 per cent from a year earlier, in line with a rebound in shipments out of Asia in October."  Read article here.

First REIT: Bought more at 95c.

Last Friday, I mentioned that "I have been waiting the whole day for someone to sell me some First REIT units at 95c but to no avail. Some people are puzzled why am I so interested in getting some at 95c when I am already vested at 40+c and 70+c. Well, with the proposed acquisitions and rights issue, buying more even at 96c could be quite rewarding. With an average price of 70c, post rights, if we were able to buy at 95c now, a yield of 9.1% is not impossible with an estimated full year DPU of 6.4c in 2011. As the XR date is 1 Dec which is almost 3 weeks away, I will continue to wait patiently at 95c. Wish me luck."

To all my readers who wished me luck, thanks! My overnight buy queue at 95c was filled. Now, I will wait to buy at a lower price if there are people who are willing to sell cheaper to me. This is quite possible since the XD date is 1 Dec.  Many things can happen within these two weeks.  When I mentioned this, someone said that he does not think it is probable since the counter is offering deeply discounted rights. I replied that there might be people who cannot afford to pay for the rights and might choose to lock in their capital gains now by selling the units they have. Never say never.

Technically, the doji formed when First REIT's price touched a high of 99c on 9 Nov was a warning of a possible reversal. It also formed lower highs on the MACD, the MFI and the RSI on that day.  This has painted a picture of negative divergence between price and all the momentum oscillators. OBV confirmed the bearish picture as it plunged, suggesting massive distribution.

So, I have suggested that I would be buying more if people are willing to sell to me cheaper. At what price would I buy more of? Using Fibo lines, I see 138.2% at 93.5c and 161.8% at 92.5c.  Assuming that I buy more at 92.5c, I would have an average price of 92.5c x 4 + 50c x 5 /9 =68.9c and a yield of 9.29% with an estimated annualised DPU of 6.4c in 2011.

92.5c, I am waiting.  Once more, wish me luck. ;-)

Related post:
Saizen REIT, First REIT, Golden Agriculture and Genting SP.

Saizen REIT: Insider buying and divestment.

Saizen REIT's co-CEO and director, Mr. Chang Sean Pey, bought 200 lots at 16c per unit on 12 Nov, last Friday. Continual insider buying is what we have come to expect for this deeply undervalued REIT.

Today, Saizen REIT announced the divestment of another property in YK Shintoku's portfolio: Reef Suite. This is for a cash consideration of JPY 123,184,249 (S$1.9 million), a discount of 6.7% to valuation. This property is located in Sapporo, was built in September 2005 and comprises 18 residential units and 15 parking lots. As of 30 June, this property had an occupancy rate of 84% and brought in JPY 13.2m in rental revenue (gross yield of 10.7% at the selling price). After this divestment, the net outstanding loan of YK Shintoku amounts to approximately JPY 4.9 billion (S$76.7 million).

Read announcement here.

The general picture of increased buying interest in Saizen REIT continued today. 16c is still the battle zone between bulls and bears. 16c remains a significant resistance to overcome as that is where we find the flat 200dMA approximating.

With most of the sell queue at 16c bought up, we just need to see a moderately high volume up day to take out the relatively shorter sell queue at 16.5c. I have an immediate target of 19c in case this happens but, before that, expect rather stiff resistance at 18c, the high in January 2010.

Related post:
Saizen REIT: 1Q FY2011 results.