When to buy SPH's stock?

A reader who attended InvestX Congress wrote to say he enjoyed my presentation at the event and that he was especially enlightened as to why I thought SPH made a better investment for income compared to SPH REIT which led to me plonking down more money in SPH's stock. He then went on to ask if this is a good time to buy more of SPH's stock.

Yikes! I am very afraid of questions like this, regular readers of my blog would know.

So, I asked him what did he think the fair value of SPH's stock was? If he were a value investor, he would want to buy it undervalued. Of course, I reminded him that valuation is a subjective exercise and depending on what he focused on, he could come up with different fair values.

Personally, I feel that the fair value is about $4.20 a share, give or take a few bids. So, I do what I sometimes do and which I did not talk about during InvestX Congress. It wasn't something I was supposed to talk about at the event.

What did I do?

I looked at the charts.

Click to enlarge.

I see lower highs on the MACD, a momentum oscillator, as higher highs in the share price were reached at $4.17, $4.26 and $4.27. This is a negative divergence. This is an indicator that weakness is on the horizon.

Immediate support is currently provided by the flattening 200 days moving average (200dMA) at $4.14. Is this support going to be tested next week? Possibly.

Bearing in mind that the 200dMA is a long term moving average, if support at $4.14 should be breached, we could see SPH's share price moving much lower. How much lower? That is hard to say but we can use Fibo retracement lines to get a glimpse of where the supports are likely to be.

Click to enlarge.

Share price could retrace to $4.10 (the 50% golden ratio) or $4.055 (the 38.2% golden ratio). The support provided by the 23.6% Fibo line is a weak one at $4.00. So, if share price should go that low, we are likely to see $4.00 support breached.

So, given the technical analysis I did, if I didn't yet have a long position in SPH, I might wait to get some at immediate support which might be moved higher to $4.15 since the 61.8% golden ratio is at $4.145.

If I already had a long position in SPH (which I do), I will wait to accumulate on weakness which, given the negative divergence observed in recent weeks, looks likely to happen.

Related post:
SPH: Within expectation.

We can help to lessen the pain.

On 25 May, I put up my complimentary ticket to InvestX Congress 2014 for auction, promising that the proceeds would go to a charity of my choice. Within 2 days, I closed the auction after receiving the top bid of $99 which was equivalent to the regular price of the ticket.

Now, here is the proof that I have made a donation with the money received:

When a reader asked me on FB which charity would I be making a donation to and whether it would be to NKF, I told him I would be making a donation to KDF. It was the first time he heard of KDF despite the fact that it was set up in 1996.

KDF is a not-for-profit and independent charity to help needy kidney patients who lack funds for dialysis and also to find a cure for kidney diseases. They work together with NUS in their search for a cure for diabetes. I like the vision of a world where people no longer have to suffer from diabetes.

Learn more about KDF: www.kdf.org.sg

There are people who are forced to sell their cars and valuables due to financial hardship. There are people who suffer financial hardship but have nothing valuable to sell. For these people, if financial hardship is due to health reasons which prevent them from being gainfully employed, we should offer a helping hand, if possible.

Related posts:
1. InvestX Congress: AK's ticket is up for grabs.
2. Forced selling due to financial hardship.
3. Counting our blessings.
4. Towards better mental health.
5. Voluntary contributions to CPF.

Want to win $14,000 to $19,200 a year?

I know someone who would bet $300 to $400 every week on 4D and Toto. It is simply mind-boggling to me.

When I found out, I suggested that he should save the money every week instead.




To me, it is a no-brainer. 

I explained to him that, in a month, he would save $1,200 to $1,600 and in a year, he would save $14,400 to $19,200!

That is quite a lot of money.

His reply to me,

"Hey, what if I gave up and one of the 4D or Toto combinations I always buy appear as first prize har? You compensate me har?"

I was speechless! 




I mean if he had listened to me, I would have gone on to explain the next step of how he could invest that $14,400 to $19,200 a year for a dividend income of $720 to $960 a year which although not a lot is nice to have.

Then, imagine doing it year after year!

Gambling is like a drug.

This person is so hung up on the possibility of striking it rich and he has been doing this for so long that he is unable to quit for fear that all his previous "investment" would go to waste.




Chances of winning first prize in 4D is 1 in 10,000. 

Chances of winning first prize in Toto is 1 in 8,145,060!

How are the odds more attractive compared to a sure win of $14,000 to $19,200 per year?

Of course, let us not forget the possibility of a dividend income if the money was invested.

Well, he must think I am mental. Many patients in Buangkok Green share his view, I am sure.




"rationalizing foolish conduct, based on your subconscious tendency to serve yourself, is a terrible way to think." 
- Charlie Munger.

Update: 27 July 16

Matthew Seah:

TOTO now got more numbers to choose from..

Click to enlarge and be stunned like vegetable!

Related post:
Investing in stocks makes you a gambler.

Forced selling due to financial hardship.

Vin Diesel, Michelle Rodrigeuz and Gina Carano amazed by the crazy car prices in Singapore!
"Is the moral of the story don't buy cars in Singapore?"

UPDATE (December 2016):
Someone was telling me how it is really tough to make ends meet in Singapore. He was rattling off what sounded like a well rehearsed list but when he said "petrol prices went up", I went:

"You are having trouble making ends meet and you have a car?"

I guess I might have sounded a bit rude. It wasn't by intention. Really. He gave me a dirty look... Anyway...
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In recent months, I felt an air of caution and some might even say pessimism in the economy. 

Maybe, it is just me but my observations tell me that maybe the economy is not humming along so nicely.

Are hard times around the corner?

What can we learn from this recent ad to sell a BMW car?

Being financially prudent will help us to become more secure financially. Then, we wouldn't have to fear hard times (as much). 

Although we would not wish for it to happen, hard times could descend upon us quite suddenly. When it does happen, we want it to be good for us.

Be prudent with our expenses and, very importantly, don't fund our consumption with debt.

“When you combine ignorance and leverage, you get some pretty interesting results.” Warren Buffett.

Related posts:
1. Come out on top of a recession (Part 1)
2. Come out on top of a recession (Part 2)
3. A car loan is different from a home loan.
4. From rich to broke?
5. Wage slaves should be fearful.
6. The evil instalment schemes and their minions.