Rushing CPF with only 11 years left to 55.

Reader says...
I am now 44. my SA is about 100k now. 

My MA has reached BHS. 

I am thinking of transferring some OA to SA to reach FRS. 

I understand that I can’t VC anymore to SA.





Now what happens with monthly mandatory contributions? 

Will all my monthly MC all go to OA?

So does this mean that once SA reaches FRS, there is no other way to grow SA other than the interest earned within SA?

If now, my monthly MC is all going to OA, what else can I do with the faster growing OA to grow my overall CPF funds?





I feel that I want to work smart to build up my nest egg before I hit 55. 

I only have 11 years of doing this. 

I should have done it much earlier.

AK says...
Your SA has $100K and this is below the prevailing FRS, you can continue to Top Up your SA using cash.

Read this blog on the options available:
http://singaporeanstocksinvestor.blogspot.sg/2017/08/investx-congress-and-cpf.html

Your mandatory contributions (MC) will go to your OA and SA but nothing to your MA since it has hit BHS.

Read this blog and refer to allocation rates:
http://singaporeanstocksinvestor.blogspot.sg/2017/08/cpf-sa-savings-10-years-from-now.html





If you have used your CPF-OA money to help purchase your home, you could consider doing a voluntary refund to your CPF-OA to help grow your OA savings.

Read this blog:
http://singaporeanstocksinvestor.blogspot.sg/2015/09/how-to-stop-accrued-interest-we-owe-cpf.html

Let the government work harder to help fund our retirement.

Read this blog:
http://singaporeanstocksinvestor.blogspot.sg/2015/01/how-did-ak-amass-so-much-money-in-his.html

Gambatte!





"What if I had done this too?"

Read this blog:
http://singaporeanstocksinvestor.blogspot.com/2014/12/if-i-had-done-this-i-would-have-hit.html

Cutting losses in REITs.

Reader says...
You have been very successful in investing in Reit.

May i ask if you have any cut loss plan for taking up reit position?






I know investing in reit is a long term investment, looking for distribution return.

As investing are about probability and there is no certainty, if the price of reit falling below the entry price, do you get out or continue holding your position?

Really hope to hear from you soon. Thank u Ak.

Your willingness to share help gain alot of knowledge for me.

AK says...
I have in the past sold down some of my investments in REITs.

Examples of such REITs were Lippo Malls and Sabana REIT.

In both instances, I sold because I thought they were no longer as good an investment for income and that the management was mediocre.






If I believe that a REIT is still a relatively good investment for income and that any price weakness is due to (seasonal or cyclical) externalities, unless structural, I won't sell.

You might be interested in the blog on Sabana REIT: HERE.

And the blog on Lippo Malls: HERE.

(I was lucky not to lose any money in both instances and made some money instead.)

I should have invested in Bitcoin.

Reader says...

I should have invested in Bitcoin when my brother in law told me years ago.

Really regret.

AK says...

I think you mean you should have "speculated" in Bitcoin. ;p

When we buy something with nothing more than the hope that we would make money from it (i.e. that its price would go up), we are speculating and not investing. :)

(Actually, the same goes for selling something. Think stock market. Think short sellers.)

It is like buying 4D, TOTO or Big Sweep.

Yup, if you have bought some Bitcoins, you would have won the lottery.

That is what it is.

A lottery.

I don't mind a bit of speculation but we have to know what we are doing.

We have to know that we are speculating and not investing.

I see even financial bloggers getting a bit mixed up sometimes.

Sometimes, we see a blend of investing and speculating going on which isn't anything wrong per se.

We just have to know what is going on.




Anyway, read this blog to have an idea what I am talking about:
Centurion Corporation to double in price!


(And also this blog:
Investment philosophy and property market.)

ComfortDelgro's massive short interest.

Reader says...

Many are concerned that shorting will continue to push the share price down.

What do you say to this?

AK says...
Definitely, ComfortDelgro has been a favorite for short sellers.

There is now a massive amount of short positions in ComfortDelgro.





I see this as a good thing because it has created a buying opportunity.

Short positions have to be covered eventually and, unless ComfortDelgro's fundamentals are rubbish, short covering together with genuine buying interest would send the stock price up.






All else being equal, I would welcome more aggressive shorting as it would let me accumulate at even lower prices.

As I do not believe that ComfortDelgro's fundamentals are rubbish, I believe that the larger the short interest, the stronger the eventual price recovery would be. :)




Related posts:
1. ComfortDelgro's FA.
2. ComfortDelgro's TA.

"Noble Group will be worth $7.00 a share."

Reader says...
I followed the call of a famous trader in Singapore and bought Noble in May.

He drew a chart and said it will go up to $7.00.




I am still holding but the price keeps falling. I put in a lot of money. I don't know what to do now.

Should I cut loss?

AK says...
When was the last time I did a TA on Noble Group?

See the blog: HERE.

I always say that TA is about probability and not certainty.





It is too dangerous for me to suggest if you should hold, cut or add.

However, I would suggest that you pick up TA if you want to be a trader.

See recommended books for TA: HERE.

Regular readers know that I used to do quite a bit of trading and I said as much in this year's "Evening with AK and friends".

See the blog: HERE.






If you want to start a zhi char store, make sure you know how to handle a wok.

If you don't know how and pay a shi fu to do it, you are at his mercy.

So, if you want to trade stocks, make sure you know how to read charts. :)




---------
In case you just dropped in, there was a blog published earlier today:
Investing in high yield Asian bonds.

Investing in high yield Asian bonds.

Reader says...
I am in my early 40s, and do active investing on my own.

Recently I was contacted by an agent, who shared about investing in high yield Asian bonds.




I was initially sceptical but it seems that these are very different from mini bonds, and the failure rate has been historically low.

I am thinking of investing about 10% of what I usually invest in the stock market in these bonds.

The main catch is that the investment commitment is over 10 years (i.e. cannot sell for the first 10 years), which seems fine to me, and after that, I am able to decide whether to continue investing or not.

Would you be so kind to share your thoughts please? 

Many thanks.

AK says...
High yield bonds are a nice way of saying junk bonds.

They are junk bonds for a reason and you should be wary of the financial strength of the issuers.

It depends on how much risk you are comfortable with taking and if you think the potential returns justify the risk.




I wouldn't buy these myself and also because there is a strange thing here about not being able to get out of this for 10 years.

Whether regular bonds or bond funds, we are allowed to get out whenever we want, accepting whatever price Mr. Market should offer at that point in time.

10 years is a very long time and with no escape clause, it is either we swim or sink with the issuer.




Another thing is that with interest rates rising, if the issuer does not default, these bonds could be worth much less 10 years later assuming that interest rates become elevated then.

So, in such a scenario, if you do decide to sell the bonds, you might get back less than your initial investment.

Of course, the decision is yours.





You might want to read the blogs listed below and I hope they are helpful to you:
1. Why have bonds in our portfolio?
2. Nobody cares more about our money.

Have a savings plan and invest fearlessly!

Reader says...
Recently, an agent came to me asking me I should get a saving plan.

As she said that people can invest fearlessly is becos they have a saving plan (safety net) if anything to happen, there's still a saving account.





The saving plan is like pay for 5 years then after 15 years can take the money out with interest.

She says the money can be used for my baby education funds or my personal funds after 15 years.

What r your thoughts on saving plans?

AK says...
What is the guaranteed return?

See for yourself if it is worthwhile.

As a guide, Singapore Savings Bond (SSB) pays 2.16% p.a. guaranteed if held for 10 years.

This is a AAA rated sovereign bond.





So, this savings plan which the insurance agent is trying to sell to you must return much more than this to make it worth considering.

1. 15 years is a long time to hold. You will be sacrificing liquidity for a very long period of time.

2. Insurance company is not a AAA rated country like Singapore.








If you want a similar safety net, locking up some money in SSB for 10 years could be the answer. 🙂

(Unlike a savings plan from an insurance company, you will not suffer any monetary loss for early withdrawal for SSB although the returns would be lower if not held for 10 years.)

15 years is a very long time and in that time, there could be a stock market crash (or two) and I would rather have more money to invest with.

So, with this consideration in mind, putting the money in SSB is a better option for me. 🙂







To be fair, such products (i.e. savings plans) are useful to some people.

These people probably have lots of spare cash and are probably not interested in investing in stocks or hard assets.

These people might not be financially savvy and just want somewhere relatively safe to plonk their money.







If you are financially savvy, buy term and invest the rest. 🙂

Related posts:
1. Insurance weakened family's balance sheet.
2. 2.02% interest attractive? It depends.
3. Singapore Savings Bond good or not?

See this month's Singapore Savings Bond: HERE.

Reducing investment in Accordia Golf Trust.

I am sharing this conversation which I had with a reader which took place in the comments section of my last blog on Accordia Golf Trust because I feel that it is important enough to share as a proper blog.





csky said...
Redemption of the deposit means the member has cancelled their membership. But non-members can still play but at a higher play fee.

The large redemption for FY17/18 was unexpected as the previous years’ redemption averaged about 20%. They think it could be because this batch of redemption included 2 golf courses that had much higher membership deposit fees than other golf courses.

The cumulative amount of membership that has yet to be redeemed is shown in the dark grey bar on top of the chart. Which is 11,215 (JPY million) for FY17/18 and it is also reflected under liabilities in their balance sheet.

This membership deposit is an old scheme. The last batch of this old scheme is reflected by the grey bar of 750 (JPY Million) for FY18/19 as shown in the chart. So new members who join now, they no longer has to place any such redeemable membership deposits.





AK said...
Thanks very much for sharing this. :)

These old members who redeemed their deposits can rejoin as new members without having to make any deposit under the new scheme.

Realistically, we should expect deposit redemption to continue to impact distributions in future and, in time, cease altogether.





csky said...
Most welcome ;)

AK, all of their loans will be due in either August 2018 or August 2019. Is this normal? I am assuming they will try to refinance the loans, but it sounds like they are not giving themselves very much time. What if there is sudden financial crunch? And it certainly does not seem like they have enough cash to make repayment of the loans too.

Term loan A ($15,000M) and Term loan B ($15,000) are both due in August 2018. Term loan C ($15,000) is due Sep 2019. Term Loan A has already been extended once (from August 17 to August 18), no mention of them refinancing it again. The report does say they are refinancing Term Loan B with banks.





AK said...
Yes, I was a bit surprised that they extended the loan for one year only.

Now, together with the risk of membership deposit redemption, it looks like they might have too much on their plate.

Although I think that AGT can be a good investment for income, with all the uncertainties, to add to my investment, I would demand a lower unit price as compensation for the risk I would have to undertake.

With this in mind, I think it might actually be a good idea to reduce my rather big investment in the trust.





I will talk about this again in my regular full year passive income report next month.

Related post:
Accordia Golf Trust DPU plunged.

Medisave voluntary contribution in 2018.

I updated a blog on the CPF-MA yesterday:

"For those under 65, the Basic Healthcare Sum next year will be S$54,500, up from S$52,000 previously, the authorities said."
Source:
CNA, 16 November 2017





And here are some comments on my Facebook wall:

Reader #1:
Interest $52k @ 4% = $2080.
total $54080
New amount $54500.
Still need to top up $420.

Reader #2:
4% interest will bring the total to $54,000.
Meaning we can only top up $250?





There seems to be some confusion as to how much we can contribute to our CPF-MA at the start of the new year.

So, I am doing a quick blog here on the matter.

If our CPF-MA has hit the BHS in 2017, the interest earned in 2017 will be transferred to our CPF-SA or CPF-OA (if our CPF-SA has hit FRS like in my case).






So, at the the start of 2018, our CPF-MA will have $52,000 only (i.e. the BHS in 2017).

This will allow us to do a voluntary contribution of $2,500 to our CPF-MA (to hit the 2018 BHS of $54,500) at the start of 2018 and get an "ang bao" of $100 for the year.

For anyone who is paying income tax, note that the recipient of a voluntary contribution to the CPF-MA will get income tax relief.

HUAT AH!

I like. You like?





Related posts:
1. Do online contribution to CPF-MA.
2. 4 ways to beef up CPF savings.

What is our goal and is debt unavoidable?

Reader says...
I am one of those silent readers following your blog and i greatly appreciate your thoughts and wisdom regarding a multitude of issues.

I am currently facing a dilemma of whether to pursue a post graduate education and i was wondering you could knock some sense into me :)




I am a 29yo engineering graduate who developed an interest in finance and was fortunate enough to make an internal switch to a business and financial analyst role within my company.

I was able to pick up the job requirements for my current role but i feel the need to gain more knowledge on the finance side of things and hence i am considering taking up a part time masters in finance.





I would think that this is a form of good debt by investing in myself and having this paper qualification could possibly open up more opportunities in the future but at the same time, this will put me $40k in debt and part of me thinks that this money could be put to use by income investing.

Could you kindly advice what your younger self would have done in this case?

Thank you for hearing me rant.





AK says...
It is very simple. ;)

Ask if this is a need or a want? 

If you need this, go do it even if it puts you in debt.

Having said this, ask if there is another way to get what you want without going into massive debt?

I decided that I needed some knowledge of business when I left teaching to go into sales. 

So, I did a part time diploma in business for about 2 years. (See related post at the end of this blog.)

I didn't have to go into debt to do it.

It probably cost me less than two thousand dollars to do the whole course back in those days.




I decided what I needed was knowledge and learning in a structured manner to speed up the process. 

I didn't need a prestigious degree for my purpose.

So, ask yourself what are you trying to achieve and if debt is unavoidable?
------------------

Although I try to avoid debt in life, it is not because debt is an absolutely bad thing.

Used judiciously, debt can be a good thing if it helps us to generate more income.

Always remember that even with good debt, it is important not to over-leverage because things do go horribly wrong like they sometimes do.





When do we know we are over-leveraged?

There is no precise measure of over-leverage but if we are unable to service our debt for even a short period of time (i.e. 6 months to 24 months) if we should lose our jobs, I would consider us to be over-leveraged.

Of course, this will bring us to another favorite topic of mine which is the importance of having an adequate emergency fund. (See related post #2.)






Related posts:
1. What should I study to be a good investor?
2. How much should we have in emergency funds?

Religare Health Trust to be bought for $966m.

Religare Health Trust's unit price spiked after news that Fortis is seeking to delist the business trust was released earlier this morning.

Surging to as high as 96.5c a unit, it was a 19% increase from the previous trading session in a matter of minutes.





"In an exchange filing on Wed morning (Nov 15), RHT Health Trust Manager Pte Ltd said it has received a proposal from Fortis to acquire all the sale securities held by RHT Singapore's wholly-owned subsidiaries, Fortis Global Healthcare Infrastructure Pte Ltd and RHT Healthtrust Services Pte Ltd.

"The trustee-manager has not declared a distribution for the six months ended Sept 30, as it has not received certain service fees and interest income on the CCDs from the relevant Fortis entities; Fortis is proposing for these to be paid alongside the purchase consideration."

Read article here:
Fortis proposes to buy RHT Health Trust's entire asset portfolio for S$966m





With about 810 million units in issue, if this goes through, a back of the envelope calculation shows that each unit could be getting more than a dollar.

Although it seems that I will be losing another passive income generator, I cannot really complain if it is a more than fair offer.

For those who are thinking of punting, please remember the risk involved.

If the purchase should fail, unit price would probably take a dive back down.




Related post:
Increased investment in RHT by 150%.

Accordia Golf Trust DPU plunged 32.7%.

I checked my Facebook account earlier this morning and was greeted by a deluge of messages regarding Accordia Golf Trust.

Alamak.

How like that?





Reader #1:
hey AK can i ask you something regarding Accordia's latest results? One thing I didn't understand was, why is the DPU down so much from last year despite the profit and revenue being higher?

AK:
Due to repayment of membership deposit.

Reader #1:
hm I see.
meaning more of its members are withdrawing their deposits, i.e. revoking their membership.

AK:
At this moment, I am treating this as a one off event.
Management said it is unusual.

Reader #1:
yeah probably a large number of it hit the due date for withdrawals or something.

AK:
Probably the case. 🙂

Reader #2:
Hi AK, like to ask you about accordia golf trust. 

In their recent results, they mentioned that "Total distributable income available during 1H FY17/18 was JPY 1,471 million, which was 27.3% lower than 1H FY16/17. 

The decrease of distributable cash flow was due to payment of borrowing upfront fee and unusually large repayment of membership deposit.". 

Any idea what the "unusually large repayment of membership deposit" refers to?

AK:
Members can call for repayment of membership deposits after a lock-up period of a certain number of years.

I am treating this as a one off event since the management said it is unusual.

If I have put all or most of my money in Accordia Golf Trust, this could be depressing.

Since I have a portfolio of many businesses generating income for me, I am able to look at this development with equanimity.

What now?

It is back to K-drama and MMORPGs for me.

Bad AK! Bad AK!




See slides presentation: HERE.

How to turn $60K into $332K?

Growing our wealth can be a daunting task especially when our resources are limited.

I think of wealth building as plucking fruits from a tree.

Being a lazy fellow, I try to use as little energy as possible and would go for low hanging fruits.





Why climb higher up to pluck fruits and risk a bad fall when there are low hanging fruits?

I would climb higher up when my tree climbing skill has improved or if there is a safety net to catch me if I were to fall.

Know what I mean?

Hint, hint.

Nudge, nudge.

Wink, wink.





I received this email from a reader:

Hi AK,
Thanks for sharing your knowledge with us young folks.

Saw you previously at investx.

I just did this calculation last night.

I realized if at 25 years old, you put in 40k into your SA and have 20k in your OA. 





Then you do not contribute a single cent from then on. 

Based on 5% interest on the first 40k in your SA, then 4%, and 3.5% on your first 20k in OA, then 2.5%, at the end of 40 years, at 65 years old, 60k would have become $332k.

This is without doing a single thing. It's actually quite impressive returns.

Cpf is good haha.





“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it ... he who doesn't ... pays it.”
― Albert Einstein

Correction by the reader:

The extra 1% from OA doesn't actually compound in OA. It is credited to SA. So for 20k in OA, the interest 1 yr later is 20500 in OA and an additional 200 into SA.

Furthermore, after 55yrs old, first 30k gets another 1%.

CPF has a lot of intricacies, but in the end, the magic of compounding is still wonderful!




This magic is very powerful!

Make it your friend!

If AK can do it, so can you!

Related posts:
1. Upsizing Oppa AK style!
2. $1 million in CPF by 65?

Short paid by Croesus Retail Trust?

Reader #1 said...
Could I do a check with you regarding Croesus' delisting. I believe all unitholders have received the payout. Did you receive an amount equal to $1.17 x # of shares you owned (which is what i received)?

Cause i thought that the payout should also include the distribution till the effective date of the delisting, but cap at 4.06cents?

Wonder if you know about this?

Thank you very much for reading my email.

Reader #2 said...
Like you, I have bought some Croesus and the cash proceeds of $1.17 per unit has been credited into my account yesterday. As the Croesus' dividend of 4.06 cts was for the 1 Jan to 30 Jun 2017 period, do you know whether dividend will be paid for the 1 Jul to 25 Oct 2017 period? I do recall reading that the latter dividend would be paid.

Btw, I have enjoyed eavesdropping when you talked to yourself about your passive investment in SReits!!! Thank you for allowing the eavesdropping.







AK said...
Croesus Retail Trust completed the sale on time.
They would have had to make a higher distribution to shareholders if they did not.
So, $1.17 per unit is correct.
A DPU of 4.06 cents was made earlier in September, if I remember correctly.

Related post:
Still making money from CRT.