Is Eagle Hospitality Trust worth it?

On 24 October, a reader left a comment here in my blog:

"https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/eagle-hospitality-trust-calls-for-trading-halt-after-reports-on-possible-lease

"The yield is almost 10% now.

"When trading halt is lifted, price is likely to crash and yield will shoot up above 10%.

"Do you think the risk is worth taking ? Thanks."






In reply, I said that the risk looked pretty significant.

I felt that I shouldn't take on too much risk in my retirement.

Basically, that meant I wasn't going to invest in Eagle Hospitality Trust.

The following day, on 25 October, Eagle Hospitality Trust's unit price crashed from 64.5 cents to 54.5 cents.

Of course, it did not stop there as it further plunged spectacularly to 44 cents on 5 November.






People say that IPO stands for "it's probably overpriced".

Well, it seems to be the case here.

Eagle Hospitality Trust's IPO earlier this year was priced at 78 cents per unit.

It is certainly not an exaggeration to say that investors who got in during IPO have suffered massive wealth destruction.

What to do?

For those already vested, should they cut loss or buy more?






Well, when even substantial shareholders cut their losses, it is rather ominous.

In fact, it is because of substantial shareholders selling a substantial portion of their stakes that created massive selling pressure leading to the catastrophic crash in Eagle Hospitality Trust's unit price.

When elephants stampede, it is the grass that suffers.

As retail investors, keeping an eye on what insiders do is usually a very good idea.






When insiders buy, it is usually because they think they are getting a good deal.

When insiders sell, it might not be because they think they got a bad deal.

To be fair, there could be many rather innocent reasons why they sell.

However, I would say that this is probably true when the stock is doing relatively well.

Insiders might want to take some profit off the table.

After all, it is never wrong to take profit, as the saying goes.






When insiders sell a significant percentage of their investments and take big losses in the process, however, the reason for selling could be less benign.

Alarm bells should go off when more than one insider take big losses selling down their investments.

This is the case with Eagle Hospitality Trust.

Insiders probably know something retail investors or outsiders don't.

If Eagle Hospitality Trust is a good investment for income, after a huge decline in unit price, insiders should be buying more.

Even if they don't buy more, they should be holding on to their investments.

They should not be selling.

This kind of selling by insiders is ominous and it is enough to stop me from investing in Eagle Hospitality Trust even now.






Not investing?

What about doing a bit of speculating instead?

This is when we buy and hope that the unit price will go up in the (not too distant) future.

Well, the selling pressure has weakened but it has not disappeared.

The slight recovery in Eagle Hospitality Trust's unit price now is due to reduced selling pressure and not due to strong buying pressure.

This is quite obvious when we look at the trade summary.

There is much more selling down going on than there is buying up of units.






After so much damage, unless there is very strong and sustained buying pressure, it is likely that Eagle Hospitality Trust's unit price will stay depressed for some time to come.

If there is strong and sustained buying pressure, we could see a rebound that moves the unit price to test resistance provided by the declining 20 days moving average.

Lacking this, the unit price could move sideways and the declining 20 days moving average will catch up in time which could create more downward pressure then.

The RSI, a momentum oscillator, says Eagle Hospitality Trust is oversold but there is nothing to say that it won't stay oversold for an extended period of time.

The MACD, another momentum oscillator, is still declining in negative territory and from the looks of it, it will take a rather long time before this is repaired.

A trade is usually safer when we see a positive divergence and I do not see one now.






Remember,

"Never risk what we have and need for what we don't have and don't need." - Warren Buffett

Unless we have deep pockets like the substantial shareholders, whether we are investors or speculators, it might better to stay away from Eagle Hospitality Trust even now.

It could be that I am missing out on a fantastic deal but when in doubt, I should stay out.

I might be tempted but I don't need this.

Peace of mind is priceless.






You might also be interested in this blog:
Trump won the election and I lost my life savings.

A river called CPF and the stubborn horses.

In my last blog, I said that as long as personal financial conditions permit, I would like to continue making voluntary contributions to my CPF account at least till I am 55 years of age. 

See:
How much passive income is enough for you?

I believe that it should not come as a surprise to anyone that this plan is ridiculed by people unhappy with the CPF.

Some people unhappy with the CPF even got angry at me for sharing my thoughts on how to make the CPF work as a cornerstone in our retirement funding strategy.

See:
Unhappy with CPF and angry with AK.





Looking through some of my unfinished blogs which are pretty numerous, I decided to spruce up one on the CPF.

There are so many reasons why many blogs remain unfinished.

Of course, AK being lazy is one reason.

However, this blog was left unfinished probably out of respect for a friend.

I say "probably" because I am not sure if it was out of respect or out of pity.

He is actually more of a friend's friend than a friend.

What's the difference?

Anyway, it was something that happened more than a year ago.







The original blog went like this:

I am once again reminded of human mortality as I attended a funeral wake recently.

As I grow older, I suppose I might be attending more of such necessary and unhappy events.

I will avoid them if at all possible.

I sat at a table with some friends and in the chatter, someone said something about the CPF locking up our hard earned money and that it is as good as gone.

It was in response to another person who said it is better to live life to the fullest and there is no point in dying with lots of money left behind.

Anyway, I wasn't feeling talkative and I wanted to go home as soon as I was done with the dinner buffet.

AK is so anti-social.

So, I kept quiet and kept eating.

When they started talking about children and parents, I gulped down my drink and said farewell.

Why do I prefer my own company?

I wonder.





I know that there are quite a few out there who do not trust the government.

It is good not to be too trusting.

That is for sure.

Too trusting and we are in danger of becoming gullible.

However, if we become overly suspicious, we are in danger of becoming irrational.

We should ask the right questions before making a decision, absolutely.

When we become irrational, however, we ask all the wrong questions or start imagining things.

Anyway, this is a topic that I have covered multiple times.





1. The CPF is not a national PONZI scheme.

There is a maximum amount we can contribute to our CPF account each year.

Want to contribute more?

Sorry, not allowed.

Does a PONZI scheme work this way?

Read:
CPF is really a PONZI scheme!







2. The CPF is designed to help all members achieve a basic level of retirement funding adequacy.

"The CPF is a system that is meant to help the masses to help themselves.

"If we think the system cannot help us, it is probably because we have not tried to help ourselves."

Read:
Purpose of the CPF is to make the rich richer?







3. If we are very rich, we probably will have to look for other tools on top of the CPF.

"For most ordinary Singaporeans, if they want to hold some bonds to prepare for retirement, maxing out their CPF membership benefits is all they need."

Read:
CPF is all we need unless we are very rich.

Read: $800K in his CPF!

The CPF is a good thing and we Singaporeans are a fortunate bunch.

Unfortunately, many who really need to make better use of the CPF do not realise what a good thing the CPF is.

We can bring horses to water but we cannot make them drink it or so the saying goes.

Fortunately, the mandatory component of the CPF makes the horses drink some water.

LOL. ;p

The horses might not be grateful and they complain a lot but they sure are lucky. :p





Related post:
CPF interest is passive income and CPF savings is real money.

You might also be interested in these blogs:
1. How much passive income is enough for you now?
2. CPF SA time and income lost due to peer pressure.

How much passive income is enough for you now? (AK tells you how much he needs now.)

I have always been a worrier.

Some tell me that I think too much.

I cannot help it.

For some reason, I always ended up in schools that required long bus rides from home and I would spend the time on the bus thinking.

It is probably because I am a worrier that I have sleep disorders.

Has achieving financial freedom freed me from this mental illness?

Not at all.

I just worry about different things.

Told you AK is mental.

Anyway, I read somewhere that penning down my thoughts helps to deal with the problem and this is something that I do now and then.

Sometimes, I would share those thoughts here in my blog and this is one of those times.

I don't know if the illness is contagious.

You have been warned.

Pause.

Pause.

Pause.

Still here?

OK, I guess I am not the only crazy one here. ;p

This blog is not going to be just about money.

It is also going to be about family, my family.

I turn 48 this year and my parents are in their 70s.

My parents worked hard till their late 60s.

While they were working, they didn't ask for any financial support from me.

I remember blogging about how lucky I was that way.

Read:
How did AK create a 6 figure annual passive income?

It is probably a big reason why I was able to achieve financial freedom at a relatively young age.

My parents, however, are not very savvy financially and they are also pretty stubborn.

Not a good combination.

Although not absolutely sure that it would happen, I fear that they might outlive their savings.

Like with so many things, of course, it could be just me worrying for nothing.

Although they didn't need any financial support, in the last few years, since achieving a six figure annual passive income from my investments, I have been giving my parents big red packets on their birthdays, on Mother's Day and Father's Day.

Big red packets?

How big is big?

The red packets amounted to $20,000 or so a year.

There was a year when I gave them $40,000 in total.

Pretty big to me.

In those years, I had both earned income and passive income.

So, it was definitely something I could afford to do more easily.

What about now?

Of course, I became totally economically inactive about three years ago.

Read:
Income tax payable in 2019?

Even so, lacking earned income, I was still giving my parents red packets amounting to almost $20,000 a year.

I can still afford to do so even if I must depend solely on the amount of passive income I receive from my investments.

However, earlier this year, I decided that things would have to change.





So, how like that?

Is AK going to cut back, you wonder?

I wonder how many think that way?

No, not happening. 

Although my parents did not ask for help, earlier this year, I decided that I should help to pay a big proportion of their major recurring expenses.

Financially, it means a doubling of what I give to my parents to $40,000 a year and this is going to be a long term commitment.

It is not something that I am doing just for one year or two.

It is something I gave a lot of thought to before deciding that I can pull this off.

I want my parents to be able to enjoy their retirement as much as possible.

I don't want them to have to worry about money.

I want them to have peace of mind.

They deserve it.

Even doing this will not stop me from worrying about my parents completely but it definitely makes me happier that I am doing more.

Of course, a move like this would mean having less "retained earnings" to invest with.

How like that?

Well, unless we are very rich, money will always be a scarce resource which is why if we want to retire comfortably, growing our wealth has to be a priority for most of us.

However, we have to question when this priority becomes less of a priority in life?

Know what I mean?





Anyway, I decided that putting more resources into growing my wealth at a faster pace isn't a priority for me anymore.

It is no longer a need for me.

I probably have enough financial resources I will be able to draw upon as well as sufficient income generating assets to be quite comfortable for the rest of my life although I suspect I will always feel somewhat insecure if I don't grow my wealth somehow.

This feeling of insecurity is unlikely to ever go away.

I guess it keeps me on my toes (and also keeps me awake at night sometimes).

Yes, it is just AK being mental.

Fortunately, I am a CPF member.

I will still be voluntarily contributing to my CPF account and this means setting aside almost $40,000 of my passive income annually.

Unless something disastrous happens, this is something I plan on doing until I am 55 years of age, at least.

When I turn 55, I will decide if I should continue to do voluntary contributions or if I should enjoy life a bit more.

After all, it is most likely that even without any voluntary contribution after I turn 55, I would have quite a meaningful sum of money in my CPF account by the time I turn 65 thanks to the magic of compound interest.

Read:
$1.5m in CPF savings by doing nothing.





The question I would have to ask when I turn 55 is whether it would be enough of a safety net.

Would the monthly payout from CPF LIFE (i.e. the annuity by the CPF) be enough to pay for the basics in life by the time I turn 65?

I will cross the bridge when I come to it, I suppose.

After all, I could be worrying for nothing again since I could also draw upon my CPF savings in the OA and SA which is in excess of the Full Retirement Sum in the newly created RA at any time once I turn 55 if things were to go horribly wrong with my investments then.

Knock on wood.

Read:
CPF LIFE Payout Estimator.









So, $40,000 for my parents and $40,000 for my CPF account.

That is about $80,000 which I have to put aside yearly.

What about the rest of my passive income?

A big chunk of what is left of my annual passive income will be used for other expenses.

After some rough estimates, $40,000 a year seems like a fairly comfortable amount to cover 

1. recurring expenses, 

2. donations to charities, 

3. outings and gifts for family 

as well as 

4. other discretionary spending.

Having what I have now, I should not (and really don't want to) live life on a shoestring budget like I did once upon a time.

It was pretty crazy and some would even say miserable to live on $300 a month.

I am still learning to be more easy going with money.

I think I have made good progress though.

Read:
Is AK a rags to riches story?

So, it seems that I would need roughly $120,000 in annual passive income to cover everything.

If my investments do not generate significantly more than $120,000 a year in passive income, there really isn't going to be much left of it to invest with.

Anyway, doing what I have been doing for so many years, I hope I continue to be approximately right most of the time in my decisions.

A change in my priorities this way isn't a bad thing, I feel.

After all, money is but a tool and one of its functions, if not its main function for ordinary people, is to make life better either now or in the future.

Anyway, it is not as if my personal wealth will stop growing altogether.

Although at a slower pace, my personal wealth will at least continue to grow steadily.

This is achieved mainly through growth in my CPF savings which, of course, I think of as the investment grade bond component of my portfolio.

Some of you might be interested in this blog on bonds which I penned in 2015:

Read:
Why have bonds in our portfolio?

Of course, there could be changes in future.

For the foreseeable future, however, having enough passive income 

1. to cover my expenses, 

2. to help provide for my parents 

and 

3. to grow my CPF savings 

is sufficient to make me quite happy.

OK, I guess that's it. 

------------------------

This blog has taken me way too many hours to craft and I hope this very personal sharing session has also provided you with some food for thought.

The only constant in life is change or so the saying goes.

So, it is probably good not to be too rigid about how much passive income we need.





Know that life might throw us some lemons from time to time.

If we are prepared, we will be able to make some lemonade.

Having buffers, I feel, is always a good idea.

So, how much passive income is enough for you?

Put on your thinking caps and try to have fun. ;p

Give me freedom!
Read: Give me F.I.R.E.





Mr. Bean's Teddy is on F.I.R.E. ;p

Related post:
My family almost went bankrupt.

In case you missed it, the following blog was published earlier this month:
3Q 2019 passive income: Numbers.

Largest investments updated (4Q 2019).

From my last couple of blogs, readers would be able to get an idea of what might have changed in my portfolio.


Since the last blog, however, I have made another significant investment or, more accurately, reinvestment.

What am I talking about?


Clue:

Some readers might remember that I reduced my investment in Wilmar significantly in 3Q 2019 in the month of July, booking a pretty decent capital gain in the process.

Wilmar lost its position as one of my largest investments in 3Q 2019 as a result of that move.


I explained that the move was based on technical analysis (TA) and not because I thought Wilmar was no longer a fundamentally good investment.

That meant I would be building up my investment in Wilmar again when the time is right.

I still like Wilmar as an investment today and if you are curious as to the reasons, you might want to read the following:

1. 3Q 2018 passive income: Wilmar.

2. Accumulating Wilmar...

My investment thesis remains, more or less, unchanged.

Wilmar is an amazing business that has gone unappreciated for a long time.

With the IPO of its Chinese subsidiary in the works, Mr. Market is beginning to appreciate the value that is locked within Wilmar.

Since reducing my investment significantly in July, I have been waiting to increase my investment in Wilmar again. 

Although I wondered if we could see $3.10 or even $3.00 a share again, using TA, I decided that buying at $3.60 a share or lower might be a good idea.








This is because even though Wilmar's share price has retreated, the 200 days moving average (200dMA) in its chart is still rising.

The 200dMA is a long term moving average and as it is rising, it should provide a stronger support.

The rising 200dMA is at $3.54, approximately.

Of course, TA simply shows us where supports could be found.






TA cannot tell us if the supports would be tested or not.

So, what to do?

Start buying at $3.60 a share, maybe.

TA also cannot tell us if the supports would hold or not.

So, what to do?

Make sure we don't throw in everything including the kitchen sink.

Anyway, informed by some simple TA, making use of Mr. Market's current depression, I significantly increased my investment in Wilmar so that it is again one of my largest investments.

So, together with Wilmar, what are my largest investments now?







$500,000 or more:
*CPF.

If you are laughing, I hope it is for the right reason.

Read:
Largest investments updated (3Q 2019).

From $350,000 to $499,999:
*AIMS APAC REIT.
(formerly
AIMS AMP Cap. Ind. REIT)

Nothing has changed here.

Yes, AK is so boring.





From $200,000 to $349,999:
*ComfortDelgro.
*Centurion Corporation Ltd.
*Accordia Golf Trust.
*Development Bank of Singapore.
*OCBC Bank.
*IREIT Global.

So, from having only two members, this group's membership has tripled in size, now boasting six members.

Increasing my investments in Accordia Golf Trust, DBS and OCBC meaningfully moved them up from the lower bracket.

The fourth new member, IREIT Global, made the biggest jump as it makes its first appearance in this list by skipping the lower bracket altogether.

Read related posts at the end of this blog if all these sound new to you.

From $100,000 to $199,000:
*Ascendas H-Trust.
*Wilmar International.

Wilmar returns as one of my largest investments by joining the lowest bracket in the list.

If Mr. Market continues to feel depressed about Wilmar, I would probably be buying more.



Now, remember, when we invest, we have to take into consideration our circumstances and not "suka suka" ride on other's coattails.

What?

Cannot find AK's coattails?

That is because AK doesn't wear a coat lah.

La la la la... lah. ;p

On a serious note, remember to "eat bread with ink slowly."

Don't know how?

Read:
How to have peace of mind as an investor?

Yes, peace of mind is priceless.





Related posts:
1. 3Q 2019 passive income: Numbers.
2. 3Q 2019 passive income: IREIT.

3Q 2019 passive income: IREIT Global.

I shared my passive income numbers in my last blog and also revealed that I significantly increased my investment in IREIT Global.

Now, I will explain why I chose to increase my investment in IREIT Global in 3Q 2019:

1. It seems to me that the negative interest rate will persist for some time to come as ECB just made it even more negative recently which means that IREIT Global's low cost of debt will remain low and, if we recall, the REIT actually refinanced at a lower interest rate of 1.5%, down from 2% not too long ago.

See:
ECB negative interest rates deepen.





2. Although the REIT used to have a relatively high gearing ratio which might have worried some investors, it has come down to 36%, but I have said before that what was more important was its interest cover ratio which was very healthy. 

Now, related to point #1 on deepening negative interest rates and refinancing at a lower interest rate, IREIT Global has an even higher interest cover ratio of about 11x which, if I am not mistaken, no other REIT here is able to match and compared to gearing ratio, this matters more.





3. CDL bought a 50% stake in IREIT Global's manager earlier this year in April and they also bought a big chunk of IREIT Global itself at around 75.5c a unit, if I remember correctly, which we could use as a guide as to what CDL might have thought as a fair price to pay for an investment in IREIT Global.

4. With CDL and Tikehau (the joint-owners of the REIT's manager) having relatively meaningful stakes in IREIT Global aligns their interests with those of other, including minority, unit holders which helps to give me assurance that they would most likely not do anything value destructive as they would end up harming themselves too in such an instance.





5. The original 8% distribution yield requirement was based on a 100% payment of the REIT's distributable income but the REIT has been paying out only 90% which reasonably means a 7.2% distribution yield today would be the lowest that is acceptable to me. 

Any higher distribution yield simply makes the REIT more attractive which was very much the case when I added to my investment as its unit price plunged in 3Q 2019.

I shall not detail the REIT's numbers, portfolio and future direction here because the REIT did a presentation to investors just last month and the slides can be accessed on their website. 

Look for:
SGX-DBSV-REITAS Corporate Day Investor Presentation In Bangkok. 
(Published on 5 Sep 19.)





I believe that IREIT Global has great potential and it seems that conditions are right for it to grow.

Of course, I do not know for sure whether the new management team is going to grow the REIT but it is a reasonable assumption that CDL would not have invested so much in the REIT if they had expected it to stagnate. 

To be quite honest, the status quo is not all that bad either as IREIT Global is a relatively stable and attractive investment for income in the S-REIT universe.






By having a much larger investment in IREIT Global which has shown reliability and predictability in its DPU over the years, the income investing focus of my portfolio should strengthen and this should result in higher passive income generation in the future.

For those who might have missed it, I am providing the link to my passive income numbers for 3Q 2019 below.

Related post:
3Q 2019 passive income: Numbers.

3Q 2019 passive income: Numbers.

It has been a while since my last blog and I hope everyone is doing well.

So, now that 3Q 2019 has ended, an update on what I did in the quarter is due.

Well, in terms of my investments, apart from collecting dividends, regular readers know that I sold quite a big chunk of my portfolio earlier in July.

See:
Sell into the rally...

And for what it was worth, I also provided an update on the largest investments in my portfolio.

See:
Largest investments...






Then, after that, I was mostly just adventuring in Neverwinter and taking it easy in RL (which stands for "real life"), collecting dividends from my RL investments.

Although readers should hopefully be used to the rather long breaks from blogging I have been taking as I spend more time on other activities, I would like to reiterate that this is the new normal.

If you leave comments in my blog and expect a timely response, you could and very likely be disappointed.






In fact, for the whole month of October, Neverwinter will be running the Neverember Recruitment Event which will reward the leveling of any new character created during the event.

This is not only a perfect opportunity for anyone who wants to give Neverwinter a try, it is also great for veterans to create new characters (up to a maximum of two) to get their hands on the rewards which are very generous, rewards which would have cost RL money to buy otherwise.

The Level Cap in Neverwinter is 80 but to get all the rewards from the event, we only have to hit Level 59, if I understand the event correctly.

So, I will be extra busy in Neverwinter as I will level two new characters to Level 59 and still be adventuring with the three Level 80 characters I have now.

Neverwinter is free to play (F2P) and lots of fun for anyone who enjoys the High Fantasy genre and is "giam siap" (not offering a translation for this) like AK.

Can barely see the word "Shift" and the letter "W" on my keyboard. 
Bad AK! Bad AK! ;-p

Anyway, total passive income from my investments in REITs and non-REITs in 3Q 2019:

S$ 31,789.91

This amount would have been much higher if I did not reduce my investments and rather significantly too in SingTel, Wilmar and ComfortDelgro back in July.

I say this as a matter of fact to explain why the amount is smaller than what some might be expecting and not because I regret my decision to realise gains, reducing investment exposure pretty significantly in the process.

After all, the capital gains from reducing exposure to the businesses mentioned were much more than what I would have received from them in dividends otherwise.








Also, it is almost never a bad thing to have more cash as it gives us options which include the ability to pounce on opportunities when they present themselves.

As it turned out, opportunities knocked in the following months as stock prices experienced a correction.

I added to my investments in a few businesses such as:

1. DBS

2. OCBC

3. ComfortDelgro (CDG)

The list doesn't end here, of course. 





As Centurion's stock price and Accordia Golf Trust's (AGT) unit price languished, I also added to my investments in these entities as my investment theses are unchanged.

I believe that they are undervalued and it doesn't matter to me that if their share or unit price continue to move sideways as long as they keep generating meaningful income for me.

In 3Q 2019, I also took part in CRCT's rights issue, taking up my entitlement and applying for excess rights at $1.44 a unit.

This bumps up my investment in the REIT but not by much as it is a relatively small rights issue.

Finally, I substantially increased my investment in IREIT Global as its unit price declined rather significantly.





I shall not explain my decisions to increase my investments in DBS, OCBC, CDG, Centurion or AGT again.

Anyone who is interested to find out more or in having a refresher can refer to my earlier blogs on these entities.

As for CRCT, I blogged about why I thought it was a well run REIT with a relatively attractive yield before.

See:
CRCT added in Jan 2017.

My view has not changed and there is no reason why I wouldn't take part in its relatively small rights issue to help expand its AUM.





I have also blogged about IREIT Global before and why I avoided its IPO.

This was back in 2015.

See:
IREIT: What is a more realistic distribution yield?



Of course, all investments are good at the right price and I invested in IREIT later on when its unit price declined sharply.

Adding to my investment in IREIT Global in 3Q 2019 meant paying a higher price than what I paid before, however.






Still, I chose to increase my investment in IREIT Global and I will share the reasons why in my next blog as this blog has become a bit too long.

I will try to do this within the next 24 hours because if I don't, I fear I might not do it once I seriously start to power up my two new characters in Neverwinter.

Yes, I know.

Bad AK! Bad AK!




For now, I will say that I am reasonably confident that all that I did to my investment portfolio in 3Q 2019 will better reward me in future.

What I did was consistent with my belief that investing for income is enriching and, so far, it has been the case for me.

Remember, if we do the right thing, everyone's life can be and should be better.

Investing for income can help us achieve financial security and, eventually, financial freedom.

If AK can do it, so can you!




You might also want to read:
1. Retirement adequacy 101.
2. Start with a plan to retire early.