COVID-19 defeated by Mr. Market in 2021 or so the IMF says.

I blogged about Mr. Market coughing blood from COVID-19 slightly more than a week ago.

On 13 March, the STI Index was at 2,665.

Yesterday, the STI Index was at 2,223.

That's a decline of almost 20%.

Today, it is experiencing a bit of a bounce.

So, what have I been doing in the stock market?

What will I do in the coming days, weeks and months?

So far, I have only been nibbling at stocks.

They are stocks of businesses which I believe will continue to generate meaningful income in spite of the COVID-19 crisis.

Although I am tempted to buy a lot more, I remind myself that the bear market is very much still in its early days.

There could be more shocks in the days, weeks or even months ahead.

Shock waves are hitting the American economy right now:






So, my war chests which are several relatively large Singapore Dollar fixed deposits and my CPF-OA savings, the size of which is public information, remain locked.

Some might ask where is the money I have been using to nibble at stocks coming from?

I do keep a float which is money I can access easily at any time.

This float is money in all my savings accounts and current account.

When am I going to deploy money from my war chests?

I said in the blog about Mr. Market coughing blood:

"There could be some rebounds in stock prices as, in a bear market, prices go down a river of hope.

"However, until I see signs of the downtrend breaking or, better still, a trend reversal, my war chests stay locked."

We have seen this happening.

Prices go down.

Prices rebound.

Prices continue to go down.

Prices rebound.

Prices go down somemore.

This is what is meant by prices going down a river of hope.






Fundamentally, many stocks look really attractively priced right now.

However, the fear of the unknown is crushing prices.

After all, we can only say that these stocks look attractive right now because of past information that we have.

Do we really know everything there is to know about the COVID-19?

There is much talk about the Spanish Flu and how long it lasted.

The Spanish Flu killed millions and it came in three waves.

Just when everyone thought it was over, it hit again and again.

Will COVID-19 be like the Spanish Flu?

Are we only seeing wave one now?

Nobody knows.

That is the truth.

So, what are investors to do?

I cannot tell you what you should do, of course.

I can only share what I am doing or not doing.






There is no doubt that we will survive the COVID-19.

There is no doubt that Mr. Market will survive the COVID-19.

If we don't, the human race will be extinct, anyway.

So, what is the point of having or making money then?

Stiff upper lip and soldier on, as the British would say.

Be brave and ignore the doomsayers.

So, I will buy a lot more at some point.

When is that?

Like I said before, I will wait for the dust to settle.

When that happens, we should see prices trying to find a floor if there is to be a bottoming process.

The bottoming process should see prices break their declining trendlines eventually.

Bottoming doesn't always happen this way, of course.

In case we have a V-shaped recovery, we should see prices breaking their downtrends on high volume.

I might miss plenty of upside in such an instance but I remind myself that money not made is not the same as money lost.

We could also see a double or triple bottom pattern forming.

Prices rebound, hit resistance, retraces to a support band, rebound and if it breaks resistance on high volume, that's a buy signal.






Like I said, it is still early days but these are the things I will look out for.

What about the Momentum Oscillators?

At the moment, all I can say is that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for many of the stocks I am monitoring has formed higher lows.

What this tells me is that the rate of decline in prices has slowed.

It does not tell me that prices are going to recover in a sustained manner.

Another momentum oscillator which I look at is the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD).

The buy signal here for me would be a positive divergence where the MACD forms higher lows even as share prices form lower lows.






Although I have tried to make this information as accessible as possible, I know this might sound gibberish to some people.

Some might even wonder if this is English.

Well, if you think that way, perhaps it is time to pick up some Technical Analysis (TA).

Yes, I know.

Bad AK! Bad AK!

OK, this might not be perfect but if you have absolutely "no time" to learn TA, just take note of the news and stock prices.

If stock prices stop declining and simply move sideways even as we are bombarded with bad news, possibly, the worst is behind us.

Indeed, if stock prices keep moving higher even as we are bombarded with bad news, prices might have truly bottomed.

TA is about probability and not certainty, I always say.

Without looking at charts and just taking note of news and stock prices will make it even more so.

However, it is something everyone can do.

Till the next blog, take courage, stay safe and watch the following video from the IMF ("COVID-19 Economic Outlook Negative, But Rebound in 2021").





Recently published:
Eagle Hospitality Trust: In danger of extinction?

Related posts:
1. Mr. Market is coughing blood...
2. Books on Technical Analysis...

Eagle Hospitality Trust: In danger of extinction?

AK likes buying things on the cheap.

What is cheap?

If we can easily afford something, is it cheap?

Well, it simply means that it is affordable.

It might not be cheap.

Cheap to me means value for money.

Affordability and value for money.

They are not the same thing.

For a refresher, read this blog:
Affordability and Value For Money.

So, AK likes buying things which are value for money.

If I can tell something is definitely value for money, I will buy some and, sometimes, I will buy a lot of it.

This is the same for anything in life whether it is for consumption (especially if it is a need) or for investment.

"Whether we’re talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down." - Warren Buffett

Good old Warren Buffett.

Now, I bolded one word in that quotation.

The word is "quality".





When Eagle Hospitality Trust's unit price crashed last year, many readers as well as some friends of mine thought I would be interested in buying.

After all, many respectable financial bloggers also invested in the Trust then.

Many people thought Mr. Market was overly pessimistic on Eagle Hospitality Trust.

Well, AK is growing older and as he grows older, he grows more timid.

AK wasn't pessimistic about Eagle Hospitality Trust.

AK was afraid, very afraid.

I thought Eagle Hospitality Trust was a risky investment and I didn't feel like taking on more risk in retirement.

What really steered me away from investing in the Trust was the fact that the Trust was imploding as insiders sold at ridiculously low prices, willing to take hefty losses in the process.

This is something that is still happening!





In their latest announcement, the manager of Eagle Hospitality Trust said that "the Security Price meaningfully under-represents the underlying value of EHT’s portfolio."

See recent announcement #4 at the end of this blog.

If that's the case, perhaps, insiders should be buying more or maybe make an offer to take the Trust private.

Why isn't this happening?

Why, indeed, is the opposite, more or less, happening instead?

Why is the manager thinking of an asset sale now?

Wouldn't this be a really bad time to be selling their hotels?

It is basically going to be a fire sale.

In my first blog on Eagle Hospitality Trust, I said:

"Insiders probably know something retail investors or outsiders don't.

"If Eagle Hospitality Trust is a good investment for income, after a huge decline in unit price, insiders should be buying more.

"Even if they don't buy more, they should be holding on to their investments.

"They should not be selling."

It isn't rocket science.

It is common sense.

See related post #1.





My series of blogs on Eagle Hospitality Trust seems to have done something good as a reader who wrote to me late last year just told me that he cut losses after reading my blog in reply to his plight.

See related post #3.

He wrote and told me this after the trading halt in Eagle Hospitality Trust was announced.

He might have lost a big sum of money but in exchange, now, he has peace of mind.

Priceless.

Remember,

"Never risk what we have and need for what we don't have and don't need." - Warren Buffett

Eagle Hospitality Trust looks like it could be going extinct.

If we cannot trust it, we cannot invest in it.

When in doubt, it is better to stay out.

See related posts and recent announcements at the end of this blog to form your own conclusion.

AK is just talking to himself, as usual.





Related posts:
1. Is Eagle Hospitality Trust worth it?
2. Eagle Hospitality Trust: Financial engineering.
3. Eagle Hospitality Trust: His plight.

Some recent announcements:
1. Eagle Hospitality Trust: Resignation of CFO.
2. Eagle Hospitality Trust: Cessation of Substantial Shareholder.
3. Eagle Hospitality Trust: Resignation of Independent Director.
4. Eagle Hospitality Trust: Business Strategic Review and Update.

Mr. Market is coughing blood from COVID-19.

Good or bad, things happen everyday.

When things happen, people react.

How we react will depend on our situations.

When the stock market crashed, I am sure there was a whole gamut of reactions.

Some might find it surprising but the crash didn't affect me emotionally.

Readers who have been following me for a long time might have an idea as to why this is so.





Basically, I have achieved all that I had set out to achieve in order to have peace of mind.

For an idea of what I am talking about, read the following blogs:

1. How much passive income do we need?

2. 4Q 2019 and full year 2019 passive income.

A saying comes to mind once again:

"We only need so much money in life, the rest is for showing off."

Having said this, I still want to grow my wealth.

Yes, it is probably more a want than a need at this point, I feel.






Anyway, as stock prices crash, all else remaining equal, we will get better value for money.

So, with lower prices, I have nibbled at certain stocks.

Which stocks?

See the following blog for some ideas:

3. Largest investments updated.

There isn't a need and I don't really have any motivation either to look at other counters outside the ones listed.

Did I say I nibbled?

Yes, I only nibbled.

I have yet to roll out my war chests.






The COVID-19 situation looks like it is more serious than SARS.

Things are likely going to get worse.

Of course, I still believe that Mr. Market will recover from COVID-19 but it might take longer for it to happen compared to the recovery from SARS.

World Health Organisation (WHO) declared COVID-19 a global pandemic.

COVID-19 cannot be contained anymore.

COVID-19 will spread.

All we can do is to try and slow down the speed at which it happens.






No thanks to Donald Trump, the world economy was already slowing down before COVID-19 happened.

As whole countries lock down and economic activities slow to a crawl, it is only natural for recessionary pressure to set in.

More bad news is to be expected in the coming weeks and months.

Having said this, I will stay invested because I believe my businesses will continue to pay me even so.

What about increasing exposure to stocks?

Like I said, I have nibbled at some stocks as their prices plunged but I am in no hurry to buy a lot more.

There could be some rebounds in stock prices as, in a bear market, prices go down a river of hope.

However, until I see signs of the downtrend breaking or, better still, a trend reversal, my war chests stay locked.






Like I told a friend recently, stay calm and play Neverwinter (or anything else that we enjoy).

My mind is at peace and it will probably stay that way.

Yours should be too.

Until the next blog, wash our hands more often, practice good hygiene and stay safe.

We should always try to remember that there are more important things in life than money making.







Related post:
Mr. Market is sick and AK talks to himself.
(Read the comments in the comments section of the blog if you have not done so.)

Mr. Market is sick from COVID-19 and AK talks to himself.

One reason why I have not been blogging as much is that I don't really have anything new to say.

Yes, to be fair, we cannot blame it all on my adventuring in Neverwinter.

Anyway, although I won't really be saying anything new, I am going to blog about investing in the stock market now.

I have received quite a few comments from readers asking about my investments and also what am I doing?

Why?

Mr. Market is pretty sick from the COVID-19.

So, we see stock prices declining and by quite a bit too in some cases.






If you have been following my blog, you would know that I always say it should not matter what I am doing.

What you should be doing matters so much more.

This is because our circumstances are different and vastly different in some cases.

CPF savings in a pie (chart).

Know ourselves and do what we can comfortably and, more importantly, safely do, given our circumstances.

In my retirement, I am mostly investing for income.

I am more concerned with whether my investments are able to generate income for me regularly.

If they are able to do that well, I am quite happy to hold on to my investments.

I would sell if I think that things have changed or if I think that there are better investments for income.

I do a bit of trading from time to time, selling high and buying low.

However, most of the time, I am doing nothing.

It isn't that difficult to understand, really.






I said the following in a couple of blogs before:

1. If we own stocks of good businesses that are able to generate meaningful income for us

and

2. if we did not use borrowed funds or use funds which we might need for other purposes to do so,

why do we have to worry about stock prices going down?






3. If we are disturbed by our investments in the market enough to lose sleep, then, chances are we are probably over invested.

4. If we are clear as to what are our investment objectives, examine if what we are doing now gels with those objectives.

If they don't we could also lose sleep.

The tools and motivations should match.






People do die from the COVID-19 but I am willing to bet that Mr. Market is stronger than us mere mortals.

Mr. Market will recover from the COVID-19.

It is just a matter of time.

"If you worry about corrections, you shouldn't own stocks." Warren Buffett

Related posts:
1. Wuhan coronavirus is war and are we ready?
2. Wuhan coronavirus and REITs.

ComfortDelgro is one of my Dividend Machines.

I have received a number of messages from readers regarding the decline in ComfortDelgro's share price.

Mostly, the question is whether it is a good time to buy.

Regular readers know that AK will avoid answering questions like that most of the time.

However, I can say a few things to myself regarding the situation right now.

If we subscribe to what Warren Buffett says that we should be greedy when others are fearful, then, we should know what to do.

Is the Wuhan coronavirus going to be a permanent fixture?

Are we never going to recover from this crisis?

Well, I am inclined to believe that the CEO of DBS is correct.

Things will improve come summer as the virus will not do well in warm weather.

Simply put, we will recover from this Wuhan virus crisis just like we recovered from the SARS crisis.

It will take time, of course, but I do not doubt that we will recover.

What?

Cannot call it the Wuhan virus?

The official name is COVID-19?

Alamak.

Why not call it the Chinese Flu so that we know where it is from?

If you ask me, I think the WHO has to give China face lah.

Before beating the dog must see who is the owner, right or not?

Why can have Spanish Flu but cannot have Chinese Flu leh?

Ahem.

Anyway, I still think that ComfortDelgro is a good Dividend Machine.

I have nibbled at ComfortDelgro as its share price declined.

I hope I am smart enough to buy more if Mr. Market goes into a deeper depression.

On that note, in case you missed my blog on Dividend Machines or if you are thinking about signing up but have yet to do so, please note that application for the class of 2020 closes this weekend.

If you are really interested in learning about investing for income in a structured manner, sign up now or you would have to wait till next year for the next intake.

Find out more or sign up: HERE.

Related posts:
1. CPF and Dividend Machines.
2. Incomplete analysis: ComfortDelgro.

Recently published:
AK tries streaming on Twitch.

AK tries streaming on Twitch.

A friend suggested that I should try streaming my adventures in Neverwinter.

The streaming platform is called Twitch.

I only discovered Twitch a few months ago and I do enjoy watching some streamers adventuring in Neverwinter.

I have not thought of streaming my adventures in Neverwinter as I don't have any desire to socialise very much when I am adventuring.

Well, I don't have a desire to socialise very much most of the time.

Yes, I know.

AK is mental.





I do party up for some group content from time to time.

I am also active in certain guild building activities.

However, most of the time, I just like spending time in Neverwinter by myself.

Recently, I made some videos of my adventures in Neverwinter as a way to keep in touch with readers here in ASSI.

I also like that I have picked up a new and interesting skill.

In the last few days, I thought why not try to keep in touch with readers using Twitch?

It took me a few days to figure things out and it took me a while to set things up.

I don't know if I have done it correctly but if you like, you can try following me on Twitch.

My Twitch channel is:

https://www.twitch.tv/utherkaze

If you hit the "follow" button in my Twitch channel, you will be notified whenever I am streaming Neverwinter.

Following is probably a good idea because I won't be sticking to any schedule.

I will stream only when I feel like it.

If I do stream and if you happen to be free, come and take a look.





To be honest, I don't know if this will have any longevity.

For now, I am just trying things out.

Related post:
Demon and dragon slaying!

Adventuring in Neverwinter: Demon and dragon slaying!

I keep saying that Neverwinter is a MMORPG.

What is a MMORPG anyway?

"Massively multiplayer online role-playing game: any story-driven online video game in which a player, taking on the persona of a character in a virtual or fantasy world, interacts with a large number of other players."

Source:
Dictionary.com

Oh, then, why does it look like AK is always adventuring alone in Neverwinter?

Where are the other adventurers?

Where is the group content?

There are plenty of dungeons, skirmishes and trials available in Neverwinter.

A dungeon requires a full party of 5 adventurers while a trial requires 2 full parties.

We can join random queues and we will be partied with random adventurers or we can put together our own party by inviting people we would like to adventure with.

There are also world events or what are known as Heroic Encounters in Neverwinter.

Slay some demons in Neverwinter with AK here:








We do not have to join parties or queue for these world events.

When they happen, just join the fray!

They can get pretty chaotic as you can imagine but they are lots of fun!

Slay some dragons in Neverwinter with AK here:








AK is adventuring in Neverwinter and banishing evil everywhere he goes!

Related post:
Adventuring in Neverwinter: Monster hunting!

Adventuring in Neverwinter: Monster hunting in Barovia.

Hunting monsters used to be something I was doing almost daily in Barovia.

For some time, I was joined by two friends, Kenji and Victor, too.

I didn't have a wizard character back then and was adventuring mostly with my paladin.

Fun times in Barovia.

It was a very rewarding activity back in the day too.

I always say that money should go to where it is treated best.

Maybe, I should say that money will go to where it is treated best instead.

People will always do something they find most rewarding if they know where to find it.







There are better rewards to be had doing other things in Neverwinter these days.

Although not as rewarding, hunting monsters in Barovia is still fun as my wizard found out.

Anyway, this is the first time my wizard is hunting a monster in Barovia after he picked up a Wanted Poster.

Before we go hunting, let us visit Madam Eva to get some clues as to the monster's whereabouts.

The hunt is on!








Related post:
Adventuring in Neverwinter: Ravenloft (Parts 2, 3 and 4).

Adventuring in Neverwinter: Ravenloft (Parts 2, 3 and 4).

Our adventures in Barovia continue!

In our previous adventure, we had to kill packs of werewolves and save some villagers from their leader's den.

Troubles did not end there.

More villagers were captured by witches as well.

The hero must see that evil is vanquished, of course!

Time to destroy a family of witches



followed by the demolition of a spy network!





Of course, adventuring in Neverwinter is not always about killing bad guys.

The next quest brings us around Barovia lighting campfires to aid fellow adventurers.

My barbarian, a melee DPS* character, has volunteered to be the tour guide.

(*DPS refers to a character class or specialization which focuses on doing a lot of damage quickly.)


If we know the route to take to avoid the mobs, we can achieve our goal without any killing.

We can even take some time to smell the roses and enjoy the scenery.



Remember what Warren Buffett said?

"I don't look to jump over 7 foot bars.

"I look around for 1 foot bars that I can step over."

AK is always looking for ways to make life easier.

Yes, even in Neverwinter!

If AK can do it, so can you!




Related post:
Adventuring in Neverwinter: Ravenloft (Part 1).

Adventuring in Neverwinter: Ravenloft (Part 1).

The next series of "Adventuring in Neverwinter" will show my end-game ready ranged DPS character, a wizard, in Barovia.

Barovia is the adventure zone for the Ravenloft campaign.

The Ravenloft campaign is much newer compared to the Sharandar campaign and also much more challenging.

However, seeing my wizard in action, you might not think so as his DPS* stats are even over the caps for the latest and most difficult dungeon at the moment (i.e. Infernal Citadel)

(*DPS refers to a character class or specialization which focuses on doing a lot of damage quickly.)

So, Ravenloft isn't going to ruffle his feathers (or scales).

Scales?

Yes, my wizard is somewhat scaly.

No, my wizard does not have some skin disease.

He is a Dragonborn.

"Dragonborn! Children of Io, the great dragon-god, the Dragonborn are a steadfast and honorable people who have thrown off the shackles of their former dragon masters."

Source:
Neverwinter website.

AK bought the Dragonborn pack during Neverwinter's 6th Jubilee celebration and unlocked the race when he got a 50% discount coupon.

If you thought AK went mad and spent real life (RL) money on the game, no, he didn't.

AK is mad in many ways but he is not mad enough to spend any RL money on MMORPGs.

Neverwinter is a free to play (F2P) high fantasy MMORPG.

We can obtain currency called Astral Diamonds simply by adventuring and exchange them for the premium currency called ZEN which is paid for with RL money by less patient adventurers.

It is a very good system for adventurers who are patient enough to wait.

I always like to think that good things come to those who wait.

Like in saving and investing our hard earned money in RL, patience is also a virtue in the virtual world.

Alamak, better stop here before I start nagging.

Hope you enjoy this video.





More "Adventuring in Neverwinter" videos coming soon!

Related posts:
1. Sharandar (Part 1).
2. Sharandar (Part 2).

Adventuring in Neverwinter: Sharandar (Parts 2 & 3).

My paladin is a healer.

He is not my most powerful damage dealing character in Neverwinter.

However, having leveled up significantly, he has more than enough power to mow down monsters in older regions like Sharandar.

Of course, for newbie adventurers, Sharandar could still present a challenge like it did for me when I was a newbie adventurer.

Following my somewhat successful video making debut, AK Studios is proud to present to you two more videos for your enjoyment today.







My most powerful damage dealing character, at the moment, is a wizard.

He is mostly adventuring in Avernus, the first layer of Nine Hells, which is the most difficult adventure zone available right now.

However, he will revisit Barovia, the adventure zone for the Ravenloft campaign, in the next video!

Barovia is under attack by witches, werewolves and vampires!

Sit idle and do nothing about it?

Not a chance!

Look out for more "Adventuring in Neverwinter" with AK!

Evil doers will be vanquished!




Related post:
Adventuring in Neverwinter: Sharandar (Part 1).

Adventuring in Neverwinter: Sharandar (Part 1).

I have not been spending as much time here in ASSI as I spend most of my time travelling.

Travelling?

Where?

My travels are, of course, in the fantastic world of The Forgotten Realms.

More accurately, I don't just go travelling, I go adventuring.

From time to time, I would talk about Neverwinter and how much I enjoy it.

Today, for the first time, I have made a video on adventuring in Neverwinter.

This is my first attempt and it is a short video of 11 mins or so.

It shows my paladin adventuring in one of the regions, Sharandar.

Have a look and let me know what you think of it.








I hope to continue making videos like this one on a regular basis to share here in ASSI.

For those who enjoy MMORPGs and the high fantasy genre, this would probably be something fun for them.

For those who are not into gaming but enjoy the fantasy stories, this is probably entertaining too.

For those who do not enjoy this kind of stuff, well, at least you know AK is alive and kicking.

Yes, I know.

Bad AK! Bad AK!

Never bored in retirement, I am glad I picked up a new skill today.

If AK can do it, so can you!





Recently published:
Passive income and Dividend Machines (2020).

Related post:
Is AK blogging about Neverwinter?

Passive income: CPF and Dividend Machines (2020).

If you have been reading my blog for some time, you will know that I like the CPF system.

For the common folks in Singapore, the CPF is our cornerstone in retirement funding.

In fact, I even said that the CPF can be our best friend in our golden years if we nurture the friendship.

However, if we wish to retire early like I have, simply nurturing our friendship with CPF is insufficient since we cannot utilise the savings until we are at least 55 years of age.

Even at 55, we might want to give the magic of compound interest more time to grow our CPF savings before we draw on the account so that our savings can last longer.

The CPF is really our ultimate personal financial safety net.

To be able to retire earlier, however, we will need to have a stream of meaningful passive income that will pay for all our needs and wants in life.

This is where investing for income comes in. 

Investing for income is the main reason why I am able to achieve financial freedom and retire early.

Warren Buffett famously said:

“If you don’t find a way to make money while you sleep, you will work until you die.”

Work until I die?

To me, it is a very gloomy thought.

Now, to be fair, not everyone wants to stop working and that is a good thing.

If everyone wants to retire early, the workforce will shrink.

Imagine what would happen to the economy?

Imagine what would happen to our investments?

The horror!

So, not everyone needs passive income, right?

Wrong.

For those who enjoy working and have no plans to retire early, they should ask:

"What if I am forced to retire early?"

There are many ways this could happen.

Remember what is the best insurance in this world?

Passive income.

I blogged about this before too.

Passive income is really less of a want than a need.

For regular readers, this is really all familiar territory.

For new readers, it might be an eye opener.

Investing for income will help anyone achieve a greater degree of financial security.

Eventually, it could also help us achieve financial freedom.

So, if you still do not know how to invest for income or if you would like to learn more about investing for income, Dividend Machines is accepting applications for their 2020 class now.

AK rarely, if ever, promotes investment courses.

Dividend Machines is, in fact, the only investment course that AK has endorsed year after year since its day one.

So many investment courses to promote, why Dividend Machines?

In a nutshell, Dividend Machines provides great value for money.

Unlike some other investment courses, Dividend Machines does not cost thousands of dollars.

We should all take steps towards financial freedom and Dividend Machines is surely a step in the right direction.

Everyone's life can be and should be better.

If AK can do it, so can you.

Sign up for 
Dividend Machines 2020: HERE.

Related posts:
1. CPF can be our best friend.
2. To retire by 45, have a plan.
3. Best insurance in life.
4. Freedom from wage slavery.