Buffett thinks it is going to get worse.

This is another blog that started out as a reply to a reader's comment: HERE.

During the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), I believe the lowest price I paid for AIMS APAC REIT (then AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT) was about 17c a unit. 

Or was it 13c a unit?

Anyway, at 17c a unit, after a 5 to 1 consolidation that took place some time later, that would be 85c a unit.

If it was 13c a unit, that would be 65c a unit.

Things were pretty bad during the GFC.

Back then, AA REIT was surely trading at a big discount to NAV and there would have been some negative rental reversions too.

However, now, things look like they are worse than what they were during the GFC.

During the GFC, we didn't have forced shutdown of economies which resulted in record unemployment.

The kind of monetary rescue packages thrown at the economy by the central banks in response to this crisis dwarf whatever they did during the GFC.

I know some countries call them "stimulus" packages but they are really "rescue" packages.

There is nothing to stimulate but plenty to rescue.






A couple of months ago, in a blog, I said I paid attention when PM Lee said that the negative effects of this crisis could be worse than what we saw during the GFC.

I am more cautious during this stock market crash compared to the crash caused by the GFC.

With the ramifications that this pandemic has and we have yet to discover all of them, I feel that it isn't a bad thing for anyone to be more cautious with money this time round.

There is no certainty that it will happen but, increasingly, chances are a second wave or even a third wave of COVID-19 might hit us.

More shutdowns to come?

Maybe.

In a recent blog, I said I watched a documentary on the Spanish flu and how that health crisis took two years to resolve as the virus attacked in waves.

The Spanish flu crisis changed the way people behaved for a long time and it was bad news for the economy for a long time.

During the GFC, people were not dropping like flies like they were during the Spanish flu crisis and also this crisis.

This crisis caused by COVID-19 will not only be remembered for a long time but it will also change the way people behave for a long time to come.

For many businesses, more enduring behavioral changes caused by the COVID-19 crisis will continue to be negative for them and the effects will ripple through the economy. 






Mr. Market could sink again into a depression as economies reopen to a new reality of probably reduced confidence and much slower growth.

Things could get worse before they get better.

When we have a safe and effective vaccine, things should get better.

Having said this, to get back to where we were before the pandemic hit us would surely take quite a bit of time.

With that belief, I am still staying invested, adding to my investments from time to time but not throwing in everything including the kitchen sink.

There could come a time when I throw in everything BUT the kitchen sink but even if I don't do so, it is OK to me.

I rather make sure that I am ready for a relatively long and bumpy ride which could be in store for us in the weeks or months ahead.






I would like to end this blog by sharing a video I found on some things Warren Buffett said at Berkshire Hathaway's 2020 annual meeting for shareholders.

Why has Warren Buffett not bought anything yet during this market crash?

Take a leaf from Warren Buffett's book.

Have a war chest or two ready.

Also, make sure to have an emergency fund and an adequate one at that.

You might want to start watching from 4:48.







"Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell says the U.S. economy faces unprecedented downside risks." 13 May 2020.

Related posts:
1. Market sways between hope and worry.
2. Survivability and opportunity in times of distress.

AIMS APAC REIT FY2020 results.

This blog started as a reply to a reader's comment and it became quite long.

So, I decided to publish it as a blog because I think many readers are probably interested in hearing me talk to myself on AIMS APAC REIT's performance.

AIMS APAC REIT (AA REIT) is retaining some income instead of distributing 100% of their distributable income.

We are living in extraordinary times and this is an extraordinary move.

I remember when I was given a tour of some of their properties in the western part of Singapore, they told me that they preferred to distribute all their distributable income to investors because they would have to pay a tax on whatever income they retained.

If you are new to my blog or if you cannot remember, see:

A private tour of AA REIT's properties.

In that blog, I shared 5 questions which I asked and the answers I received from the CEO then.

Question number 4 was on if AA REIT thought of retaining some income.






Anyway, although it is an extraordinary move, I am glad they made it because things could get worse before they get better.

As for AA REIT's lowering DPU starting from FY2016, things have been pretty challenging for local industrial properties landlords in recent years.

That prompted me to blog about the situation in 2017:

AA REIT challenged?

At the time, AA REIT was trading at a premium to NAV.

Many REITs have Master Leases and these usually give an illusion of higher occupancy and also higher income.

I am not being critical here but just saying that this happens in the natural course of business for REITs.

When Master Leases expire and if they are not renewed, usually we see income for the REIT takes a hit.

This has happened to AA REIT in the past and it has happened again to AA REIT recently.

The important thing is whether we have an honest and competent manager in place to mitigate the effects and I think AA REIT has such a management.






The oversupply of industrial properties in Singapore which was partly a result of overbuilding meant negative rental reversions over the years and it has impacted DPU.

Unfortunately, being a smaller REIT, AA REIT does not have the financial muscle nor flexibility to acquire yield accretive assets as rapidly and, of course, it is also more difficult for them to do so when they offer a relatively high distribution yield.

This is why AA REIT's strategy has been predominantly the redevelopment of their assets on hand as many assets have not maxed out their plot ratios.

Of course, when assets are being redeveloped (i.e. torn down and rebuilt), they don't generate any income.

We should expect this to continue as the REIT has many more assets in Singapore which have not fully utilised their plot ratios.





AA REIT's portfolio occupancy has declined from 91% in 2017 to 89.4% now.

Their overall revenue has also reduced from $120.11 million in 2017 to $118.86 million now.

However, it is interesting to note that their NPI or net property income has gone up from $79.4 million in 2017 to $89 million now.

This is achieved on the back of gearing ratio declining from 36.4% to 34.8% too.

All in all, for an industrial properties S-REIT of this size, I feel that AA REIT has done pretty well.

To reiterate, the lower quarterly DPU of 2 cents announced today is due to the management being prudent in not distributing 100% of the REIT's distributable income due to economic uncertainties created by the COVID-19 crisis.

Having said this, like I said before, if the crisis were to drag on for many more months, it would be unrealistic to think that AA REIT's income would not be negatively impacted.

I increased my investment in AA REIT last week because I felt that things were more settled and not because I thought that the bull would come charging back soon.

I try to remind myself that bona fide investments with the ability to generate a relatively attractive and reliable income should form the bulk of my investment portfolio.

Of course, there are many investments for income available out there and we invest in what make sense for us.

AA REIT makes sense for me.




Related post:
AA REIT investment is larger now.
Reference:
AA REIT FY2020 presentation.

AIMS APAC REIT investment is larger now.

When I blogged about AIMS APAC REIT (AA REIT), formerly AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT, last month in April, I said:

"I have not done anything to my investment in AIMS APAC REIT for many years."

Well, I can't say that now because I just added to my investment in AA REIT.

I spent a few hours in the last few days reading, crunching some numbers and looking at the chart before deciding to buy some.

The dust seems to have settled for AA REIT at least for now.

Volatility has reduced tremendously and the unit price seems to have found a floor at about $1.15 a unit.

Looking at the chart, the rising 20 days moving average (20d MA) provides immediate support at $1.14 a unit.

However, the 50 days moving average (50d MA) is still declining and is currently at about $1.16 a unit.





The 50d MA has been providing resistance which has kept a lid on the unit price.

It is the proverbial tug of war between the bulls and the bears.

One side is unwilling to pay a higher price while the other side is unwilling to sell at a lower price.

The result is a reduction in price volatility and we see some kind of an equilibrium or stalemate as neither party is able to claim victory.

The rising 20d MA and the declining 50d MA are just about to form a bullish crossover, a golden cross, which the textbooks would say is a bullish signal.

The way things look now, the golden cross might happen in the next two or three sessions but, of course, if AA REIT's unit price suddenly plunges, it might not happen.

Of course, I always say there is no certainty in such things, only probability.

I am inclined to think that, at the moment, the only certainty we have is that things are looking relatively more settled now.

Any unwinding of such a situation could see unit price move either way and sometimes quite violently too.

Which direction?

Your guess is as good as mine.






Now, a bit of FA to provide some padding for TA is in order.

At $1.15 a unit and a DPU of 10 cents, we are looking at a distribution yield of about 8.7% which is a big increase over a distribution yield of about 6.9% when AA REIT was trading at about $1.45 a unit before the crash caused by the COVID-19 crisis.

The distribution yield looks relatively attractive but how realistic is it?

I always say that AA REIT is one of the better run industrial properties REITs in Singapore and I still think it is the case.

Of course, no matter how well run a business is, if it is up against an insurmountable external crisis, it is still toast which was why I kept saying it was better to err on the side of caution and wait for the dust to settle before deciding whether to buy more.

Very early into the crisis when the air was very dusty and the visibility was very poor, a friend decided to buy shares of SIA when it fell to $8 a share because he thought the blue chip was already very cheap at that price.

That blue chip is now a blue black chip.

Together with Temasek Holdings, my friend is performing National Service as he chips in to save the blue chip.

He is coughing (probably because of all the dust he inhaled) up more money to keep SIA alive while he has to live with the very real possibility of getting zero income from the investment for the next many years.






Anyway, back to AA REIT.

With gearing level at 35% and an interest cover ratio of more than 5x, AA REIT will probably be able to weather this storm pretty well now that we have a better idea how the COVID-19 situation might evolve and also how we could keep it better under control until a safe and effective vaccine becomes available to the world.

Of course, to be sure, there is always the possibility things could go awry.

In my blog on my largest investments in REITs last month, I said that if the crisis were to drag on for much longer, then, we could see tenants defaulting on rents.

For sure, it is possible that we could see a 10% or even a 20% reduction in AA REIT's income if the bad situation the world is in now were to worsen.

So, trading at $1.15 a unit which is about a 20% reduction from $1.45 a unit before the crash shows that Mr. Market is cognizant of the risks AA REIT must face.

Talking about this has a mildly speculative flavor, of course, but I remind myself not to be overly optimistic thinking that 8.7% yield is a definite thing as I could be setting myself up for disappointment.

We should be prepared for the possibility of bad news from AA REIT when they release results and maybe provide guidance next week.

Don't throw in everything including the kitchen sink.

I don't know about you but I need my sink in the kitchen.






While we are on the subject of speculation, it is also interesting to note that ESR Cayman and ESR HK have both been increasing their investments in AA REIT.

Their most recent purchase happened earlier this year in March and that was worth more than $2 million, if I remember correctly.

Of course, there has been talk about ESR harboring thoughts of a takeover of AA REIT for some time now.

Although I hope it isn't the case and it doesn't happen, it is a definite possibility.

If you are interested in this possibility, I blogged about it initially in 2018:

2Q 2018 passive income from S-REITs.

At that time, DBS said AA REIT "could be a target for takeover and suggested a target price of $1.55 to $1.65 per unit."

More recently, there were articles in The Business Times (November 2019):

ESR Cayman Ltd (ESR) acquired 26,827,400 units in AIMS APAC Reit (AA Reit) for a consideration of S$37,290,086 at S$1.39 per unit.

and also The EDGE (December 2019):

3 potential S-REIT mergers to watch out for.






Previously, when AA REIT's unit price was averaging $1.45 a unit which was a premium to its NAV, a takeover might have been seen as too demanding or too pricey.

With unit price now at $1.15 a unit which is a discount to its NAV, a takeover is probably more palatable and also more feasible.

To me, ESR accumulating units at $1.30+ a unit continually and in pretty large chunks up until middle of March this year tells me what ESR was thinking about AA REIT as a value for money investment at that price level.

What will their next move be?

You tell me.

Yes, I know.

Bad AK! Bad AK!

I will stop here.

Time for me to move from this world of imagination to another world of imagination.

Till my next blog, be socially responsible and do the right things.

We are #SGUnited.

You might be interested in the following video on AA REIT's portfolio of properties:





Related post:
Largest REIT investments updated.

APTT: 1 for 4 rights issue at 12.8c a unit.

I am taking some time off from "Legends of Runeterra" which is a free to play game recommended by a reader, Azrael, in order to blog about APTT.

As a new player in both "Legends of Runeterra" and "Magic the Gathering: Arena", I find the former to have a better free to play model.

So, a shout out to Azrael for the recommendation.

Here is a short video on one of the regions in game:



OK, onward to victory, er, I mean APTT.

In late 2018, I increased my investment in APTT substantially as its unit price plunged.

A little more than half a year later, I sold those units as the stock market rallied, making some pocket money in the process.

I am still holding on to a legacy position in APTT which is largely free of cost by now.

At today's market price, this legacy position is a really small percentage of my portfolio.

How small?

Off the top of my head, probably less than 1% or maybe even less than 0.5% of my portfolio.

As this legacy position is largely free of cost, I am quite happy to simply hold and collect whatever money the Trust decides to distribute to me regularly.

The DPU was last fixed at 1.2 cents per annum which means a yield of 9.37% based on a unit price of 12.8 cents.

Of course, as my investment is largely free of cost, whatever income distribution I get is almost like getting free money and the yield is pretty much infinite.






Now, the proposed rights issue.

As an investor for income, the first thing I ask is what happens to the DPU after the rights issue?

With the proposed 1 for 4 rights issue, the immediate guidance is for a reduced DPU of 1 cent per annum.

This reduced DPU means a yield of 7.81% based on a unit price of 12.8 cents.

For my legacy position, I will just hold on because, like I said, it is almost like getting free money.

The question is whether should I take part in the rights issue?

Regular readers know that I like rights issues more than private placements.

I always get the option to participate in rights issues but I don't ever get invited to private placements.

Rights issues allow small investors like me to participate in the equity fund raising exercises of our businesses.

Some readers might remember my series of blogs on REITs and rights issues.

If you are new to my blog or don't remember, here are a couple of blogs from 2011 on the subject:

1. REITs and rights issues: A Singaporean tale.

2. REITs and rights issues: Dilutive or not?

Of course, to be fair, rights issues can also mean an invitation to throw good money after the bad.

So, what do I think of APTT's proposed rights issue?

Would I take part in the rights issue?






Rights issues are good if the funds raised will go towards efforts to generate more income and hopefully that means higher DPU for the investors for income like me.

Generally, I do not like rights issues which raise funds to pare down debt or to strengthen the balance sheet as it is not rewarding for me as an investor for income.

After this proposed rights issue, to reiterate, APTT's DPU will reduce to 1 cent per annum from 1.2 cent per annum.

We want to take note that this would be achieved on the back of increasing the distribution payout by 4.2% too.

Income is not increasing.

The payout is increasing.

We also want to take note that there is also no guarantee that DPU will stay at a minimum of 1 cent per annum.

Could we see further reductions in DPU in future?

It is a pertinent question.

There is a chance it could happen.





The big reduction in DPU in 2018 was necessary so that APTT would be distributing only a percentage of its earnings to their investors which allowed APTT to fund their transformation strategy without having to take on more debt.

Prior to that, APTT was funding distributions by taking on more debt.

Apparently, that big reduction in DPU in 2018 was not enough for them to pare down debt fast enough.

The management say a key focus of their strategy is to pare down debt.

So, another reduction in DPU in future is not improbable.






It is interesting to see that if no one else is interested in the rights issue, some insiders will buy all the rights units available.

It is said that it is a vote of confidence by the insiders because even the super rich would not want to lose money.

Peter Lynch would say that these insiders are buying probably because they think they will make money.

Well, to be fair, the rights issue will raise about $46 million which is a drop in the ocean for the super rich insiders like Mr. Lu Fang Ming, Mr. Hsiao Han Shen and Mr Dai Yung Huei.

When we have a lot of money, we can also be less calculative when it comes to money.

We can also afford to be more adventurous.





From all that I have said, it should be obvious that I will pass on this rights issue.

What?

My equity participation in APTT will weaken?

So be it.

I will still get free money from my legacy investment in APTT and I will keep it that way.

Simply from a distribution yield perspective, a prospective 7.8% yield isn't all that attractive when I can get a similar yield from IREIT Global which has greater clarity when it comes to income generation and it is also financially a stronger outfit, for example.

APTT could grow to be a very good investment in future and if that should be the case, I would still benefit from my existing investment.

Not participating in the proposed 1 for 4 rights issue is not going to make a big difference to me.





Till my next blog, be socially responsible and stay safe.

Things might get worse before it gets better.

When I went to the neighborhood supermarket last evening, I saw a group of elderly people lounging and chatting in public.

They were either not wearing masks or using them only to cover their chins.

In the supermarket, there was a family of four shopping.

The youngest in the family, a girl, was rollerblading in the supermarket.

Sigh.

There will always be irresponsible people amongst us.

We should stay united and do the right things.

We should be #SGUnited.

Related post:
Insider buying in APTT and Lu Fang Ming.
"The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) added that the recession ahead is likely to be deeper than first thought."

Market sways between hope and worry while AK plays games.

This is the 19th day of Singapore's "Circuit Breaker" also known as "Lockdown" or "Partial Lockdown".

It is what it is.

All these fancy names.

Lawrence Wong says "Lockdown" means different things to different people.

"Circuit Breaker" also means different things to different people.

To me, "Circuit Breaker" is "Lockdown".

Semantics.

We can go on and on.

Beautiful.

Anyway, I have not blogged for more than 2 weeks which isn't too bad.

I did say I was going to blog only once every 3 months not too many moons ago.

What have I been up to?

If you have to ask, you must be new to my blog.

I am busy adventuring in another world, of course.






"Neverwinter" currently has an event called "Tales of Old" that rewards adventurers with powerful artifacts if they run old dungeons with increasingly challenging debuffs.

There are four artifacts to be collected and, over a few days, I have completed enough runs to get the artifact which I feel is most useful to my wizard.

I might collect another artifact just for the fun of it because the event is fun.

This is what retirement should be, right?

Do stuff for fun.

More recently, I decided to learn how to play "Magic the Gathering".

I have always been amazed by people who would spend boatloads of money buying these little packs of playing cards.

I see school children huddling around tables outside shops which sell them, competing against one another.

Most of them looked skinny.

Saved all their recess money to buy cards, maybe.

I was curious but when I saw how much I had to pay for those packs of cards and how it was a never ending story, my curiosity fizzled out quickly.

Well, that was a long time ago.

Back then, it would be unimaginable to have a fantasy RPG for the PC like "Neverwinter" be 100% free to play.

Well, I found out a few days ago that I could play "Magic the Gathering" for free online too!

Being a card game, it is very different from "Neverwinter" but they did a really good job with the animations when the cards are played.

Basically, build a deck and play to unlock more cards and gain points to purchase packs of cards.

These packs of cards are like boxes of chocolates.

You don't know what are the cards you will get which is why people buy with real world money (as opposed to virtual world money) pack after pack of cards in the hope that they will get those cards they want.

It is really another form of lottery.

Anyway, the full name of the online game I am playing is "Magic the Gathering: Arena".

The "Circuit Breaker" has been extended till 1 June 2020.

So, if you are feeling bored at home, you might want to explore this free to play game.






Although I have not blogged for more than 2 weeks, I have tried to check the comments section of my blogs regularly because I know there is still plenty of "excitement".

Of course, many spam comments too which, fortunately, are filtered out.

Those which are not filtered out, I will delete.

The section is for "comments" and not for "advertisements" nor "advertisements pretending to be comments".

Wolves in sheepskin.

You know who you are.

Anyway, if you don't see any updates in my blog for a while, you might want to check the comments sections of the more recent blogs.

The last 3 updates, for example, have many comments from readers and my replies to them.

Another reason why I have not published any update is because there isn't anything new that I want to say.

Some expect the COVID-19 crisis to "magically disappear" like a "miracle".

Some think that the COVID-19 crisis is going to sink the world into another "Great Depression".

With all that noise going on, my strategy has remained unchanged.

I will not be overly optimistic nor will I be overly pessimistic.

I will stay pragmatic.

I am staying invested because I believe that most of the businesses I am invested in will still be around as the COVID-19 crisis is resolved over time.

I will buy more stocks when I have greater clarity.

Like I said in earlier updates, I have nibbled at some stocks but I will wait for greater clarity before buying much more.

If you are new to my blog or cannot remember what I said, read my more recent updates.






Technically, the upward movement in stock prices was not supported by much higher volume and I think I said that in one of my updates.

Volume is the fuel that drives rallies and if we do not have volume, any upward movement in price will not last.

As long as volume is missing, the prospect of a V shape recovery dims.

Remember, I said on 7 April that:

"Today, the stock prices of DBS, OCBC and UOB all broke the resistance provided by their declining 20 days moving averages (20d MA).

"What this says to me is that they broke their downtrends."

That was when I bought some.

However, I didn't throw in everything including the kitchen sink.

I said in that update that as the 20d MA turns up:

"Basically, we want to see any retreat in stock prices bouncing off the 20d MA then."

Well, that bounce didn't happen.

Of course, technical analysts can talk about rising wedge patterns and how it was all a bull trap now.

I will just stick to my plan.

Be patient.

Wait for clarity.






In a U shape recovery, the bottoming process is likely to be bumpy as Mr. Market sways between hope and worry.

It will take time.

What if it is a L shape recovery?

Well, that is when those of us who have an emergency fund would do better than those who don't as the economy becomes stuck in the doldrums.

It will take even more time then.

What if it is a delayed or mutated V shape recovery?

Hurrah!

Celebrate!

We should buy even at higher prices if we see huge volume buying up stocks.

That would be a sure sign that the bull is back.

That is when high can go higher.






OK, that is all I want to say in this update.

I really want to go back to adventuring in "Neverwinter" and testing my new deck of cards in "Magic the Gathering: Arena".

In the meantime, be socially responsible and stay safe.

The health of all depends on each one of us.

We are #SGUnited.

You might want to read these and also the comments and my replies:
1. Stock market correction...
2. Buying DBS, OCBC, UOB and IREIT...
3. Largest REIT investments...
4. 1Q 2020 passive income...

Stock market correction, Facebook and #SGUnited!

Happy Good Friday!

Happy public holiday!

Happy long weekend!

Of course, with the partial lockdown Singapore is in now, it really doesn't make any difference to many, if not most, people here.

It definitely does not make any difference to AK since my life is one super duper long weekend.

What?

Cannot call it a lockdown?

Must say "circuit breaker"?

OK, whatever floats your boat.

Anyway, I wasn't thinking of blogging this weekend.

Having too much fun in Neverwinter, you know.

However, I got two comments in my blog from readers and the blogging bug bit me.






First comment was about me "betting (on) another correction."

Alamak.

When did I bet there will be another correction?

I have shared my strategy a few times in recent weeks and it has always been to wait for the dust to settle.

The latest update was just a few days ago on 7 April 2020:
Buying DBS, OCBC, UOB and cheering for IREIT Global.

Readers who have been following my blog for a long time will know that I do not believe in being overly pessimistic or overly optimistic.

I believe in being pragmatic.

That's also why I always say we should stay invested but have a war chest (or two) ready and not be too extreme.

"On one end, there are people who are almost 100% in cash. I think they are doing a Chicken Little.

"On the other end, there are people who don't like to see money sitting in their bank accounts. They imagine the money is rotting away."

Source:
Sit with all that cash and do nothing?

I should not try to predict what Mr. Market will do.

However, I can certainly prepare.

What I do very much depends on what Mr. Market does.

If you have yet to read what my plan is or if you cannot remember what it is, you might want to read my last update which was the blog before this one.






Anyway, on to another reader's comment.

It is about Facebook.

More specifically, it is about my Facebook account.

Many readers will remember that Facebook did a terrible thing to AK about a year ago.

So hurtful.

If you cannot remember, read this blog:

Financially free and Facebook free!

Well, apparently, things are back to normal now.

The reader said:

"Just to let you know that your Facebook is back to normal now.

"We can see your post and everything."

OK.

Hmm.

That's nice.

What does that mean?

Facebook realised their mistake?

I don't know the reason behind their change of heart.






Anyway, I did not try to log in to my Facebook account after reading the comment.

I just didn't feel any urge to do so.

After being Facebook free for slightly more than a year, I don't miss it.

Not even a tiny bit.

If this had happened a couple of months after I became Facebook free, I would probably have gone back to using Facebook.

However, to be honest, I rather like being Facebook free now.

OK, like I said, I did not log in to Facebook to verify if Facebook restored the links to my blog both in my page as well as on my wall.

I am just blogging based on what I was told.

Readers who are not Facebook free like I am could have a look see, if you like.

Maybe, try posting a link to this blog on your Facebook page or wall and see if the link works.






It is the 4th day of the "circuit breaker" here in Singapore.

Although I know there will be irresponsible people who do not follow the rules, it still upsets me to see them.

I saw a few of them just yesterday when I went out to the nearby supermarket to buy eggs and to take away my dinner at the "kopitiam".

For example, I saw a young couple and their two children at the playground playing before they went into the supermarket.

Alamak, understand the rules or not?

They even cordoned off the playground and you still bring your children there?

What kind of message you sending to your children?

Grow up to be irresponsible like daddy and mommy?

Go supermarket must whole family go, is it?

Husband goes to supermarket and wife stays at home with the children, can or not?

Or if the wife has a louder voice, then husband stays at home with the children lah.

Use your brain!

Really lor.

Suka suka like that?

KNS!

Makes my blood boil.

Be socially responsible and hope that this "circuit breaker" will not be extended beyond a month, can or not?

We are #SGUnited.





Related post:
Largest REIT investments updated.

Buying DBS, OCBC, UOB and cheering for IREIT Global.

The title of this blog pretty much says it all, doesn't it?

OK, end of blog.

Ouch!

Who threw a shoe at me?

Anyway, I nibbled at DBS, OCBC and UOB earlier in the day.

Why did I nibble at DBS, OCBC and UOB?

Well, fundamentally, we want to buy into stocks with strong balance sheets and which are good dividend payers.

More so during a time of crisis.

So, tell me why didn't AK think of investing in SIA instead?

Hey, AK is mental but not that mental.

Ahem.






If DBS, OCBC and UOB have strong balance sheets and are good dividend payers, why didn't AK buy 2 weeks ago when prices were about 10% lower?

Well, AK is growing older and as he grows older, he becomes more timid.

This is the honest truth.

Basically, I didn't know if stock prices were going to move much lower from there

I was waiting for the dust to settle.

So, has the dust settled now?

I am not sure that the dust has settled but I think the dust is settling.

What do I mean by that?

It means that the bottoming process seems to have started.

I wouldn't say that things are bullish and that everything will be fine and dandy from now.

However, I will say that things are looking less bearish for now.

Prices have risen from the lows formed on 23 March and have been moving sideways for a while.






Today, the stock prices of DBS, OCBC and UOB all broke the resistance provided by their declining 20 days moving averages (20d MA).

What this says to me is that they broke their downtrends.

It doesn't really say anything else to me.

For sure, it isn't saying that stock prices will only go higher from here.

Personally, I feel that there is probably more downside in the weeks or even months to come.

However, Mr. Market doesn't care what I think and how I feel.

So, I just do whatever the plan which I drew out at the start of this crisis tells me to do.

For clues as to what I am talking about, read this blog:

COVID-19 defeated by Mr. Market in 2021 or so...

Remember, have a plan, our own plan and stick to it.

What is acceptable to me might not be so for you and vice versa.

Just remember that I am only talking to myself here in ASSI about my plan or, sometimes, plans.





What is going to happen next?

That is an easy question to answer.

The market will either move higher or move lower.

Yes, I know.

Bad AK! Bad AK!

What does my plan say?

Well, if DBS, OCBC and UOB see their stock prices move higher or just move sideways in the near future, we should see their 20d MA turning up in due course.

A rising 20d MA will provide some support and I would buy more at supports.

Basically, we want to see any retreat in stock prices bouncing off the 20d MA then.

If this is just a relief rally and if DBS, OCBC and UOB should see their stock prices plunging once more, then, we could see the lows of 23 March again.

Indeed, stock prices could go even lower than those lows which would be consistent with the view that the COVID-19 crisis is as bad as the Global Financial Crisis or even worse.

In such an instance, I would have to see a positive divergence formed with a momentum oscillator, the MACD, before buying more.

That is the plan.

Just have to wait and see how things pan out.

Mr. Market cannot be rushed.

Neither am I in a rush.

Stay calm and play Neverwinter!





Before I end this blog, I just want to share a bit of good news with fellow IREIT Global unitholders.

If you don't already know, IREIT Global is seeing a huge spike in its unit price today.

It is up 20% right now as I am typing this!

Now, I wish I had bought a lot more when I did at 42c a unit.

50% capital gain!

If only I had a working crystal ball, right?

"Tikehau Capital raised its stake to 29.2 per cent from 16.64 per cent while CDL increased its stake to 20.87 per cent from 12.52 per cent.

"This brings their aggregate shareholding to over 50 per cent.

"Meanwhile, new investor AT Investments has also acquired a 5.5 per cent stake in the Reit"

Source: The Business Times.
"Tikehau Capital, CDL raise their stakes in IReit Global as strategic partners."




In closing, today is the first day of stricter measures that will last for a whole month to combat COVID-19 in Singapore.

Remember, be socially responsible.

We are #SGUnited.


References:
1. Have a plan, your own plan.
2. COVID-19 defeated already?
3. Largest REIT investments updated.