Golden Agriculture: A tale of two crudes

I was watching Bloomberg on TV while vacationing and some technical analyst said that US$80 for crude oil is in the bag and would happen before the week ends. There is also news out of Venezuela that Chavez might have to do something drastic to handle a crisis in the country and that might send crude oil up to US$100! That would make Darryl Guppy happy.

Crude oil moved to the lowest in 2010 on Tuesday, 19 Jan, while crude palm oil trades at the lowest level in 8 weeks today at RM2,444, down RM46 or 1.85%. Short term weakness providing a chance to accumulate? Maybe.

Technically, the 50% Fibo line at 56.5c seems to be providing near term support. If this counter is also doing a correction using time, it would be waiting for the 20dMA to catch up and the 20dMA would be at the 50% Fibo line sometime in the next couple of sessions. The 20dMA also coincides with an uptrend line and this reinforces the near term support.

If the 20dMA support gives way, Golden Agriculture should find support at 54.5c, the 38.2% Fibo line and at 54c which is a gap support.

Healthway Medical: XR

Healthway Medical's share price seems to be holding up pretty well even after XR. However, today's price action formed a doji after the previous two white candle days. That is always "iffy".

The MFI has formed a higher low which suggests that buying momentum exists but it is very close to crossing into the overbought region. We still do not see a buy signal on the MACD and I get a feeling that the counter is consolidating, doing a correction using time. If this is right, the price is unlikely to decline very much further and is waiting for the 20dMA to catch up before moving higher.

Adjustments have been made to the chart after the counter went XR on 19 Jan. So, I've redrawn the Fibo lines and we have a support level at 15c (61.8%) which is where the 20dMA is headed towards by end of this week. Downside should be limited to 15c if the counter is indeed doing a correction using time. New eventual target is also adjusted for XR and is now at 21.5c (down from 24c) as indicated by the 161.8% Fibo line.

I have repurchased some shares at 16.5c as a hedge. I will now wait to see if the counter is indeed doing a correction using time or if it would correct in price to hit 15c.