Golden Agriculture: Buy signal confirmed.

Crude palm oil (CPO) closed up 1.46% today or RM39 to close at RM2,709 (US$811).  The outlook is bullish and CPO's price might push higher yet.  As mentioned in my previous post on Golden Agriculture, this is good news indeed for the company.

Golden Agriculture did a bullish gap up today, closing at 56c, forming a white spinning top.  Indecision?  Seeing how the spinning top did not take place after at least several consecutive days of upmove in price (because at least several days in one direction is required to qualify price movement as a trend), it is unlikely to be a trend reversal signal. 

The buy signal seen in the MACD is confirmed today.  50% on the MFI has lived up to expectations and acted as a support, preventing the index from declining which would have signalled negative buying momentum.  All in all, chances of Golden Agriculture's price pushing higher seems good.  In the event that 57c is taken out, 59c (138.2% Fibo resistance) would be the resistance to watch. Support remains at 50c, a many times tested candlestick support and resistance level which coincides with the rising 100dMA.

Healthway Medical: A boost from DMG & Partners.

Healthway Medical's target price was revised upwards by DMG & Partners to 26c from 21c after being reduced from 28c not too long ago.  Target price is raised this time "taking into account the potential growth that the new clinics can generate, despite an enlarged share base."  Why didn't they take this into account the last time when the target price was reduced to 21c (the reason given for the lower target price being the dilution from an enlarged share base then)?  It went on to say that "Healthway can potentially open another 30 medical centres in China....This would fuel earnings growth going forward."

Let's look at the charts today.  Price moved to touch a high of 18c after breaking a stubborn resistance level at 17c, forming a white spinning top in the process.  Spinning tops usually signify indecision and are generally treated by chartists as possible reversal signals.  The MFI has moved into overbought territory while 18c happens to be the 138.2% Fibo resistance as well.  However, the expansion in volume today, as price pushed upwards, is impressive and is more than three times the volume of the last session.  This suggests that the price might push higher yet.  If this happens, the XR high of 18.5c will be tested next.

I have sold a third of my remaining position in Healthway Medical today at 17.5c which I've identified as the XR equivalent of 19.5c CR.  This is also fundamentally trading at 10% higher than the fair value I've ascribed to Healthway Medical's shares, which is 16c.  I will sell more if its price moves to retest 18.5c.  Beyond 18.5c, the ultimate bullish target I have is 21.5c which is the XR equivalent of 24c CR I arrived at a couple of months ago.  At 21.5c, I would divest almost all of my investment in the company.  I would have hit my targetted investment returns then.

I maintain that buying into Healthway Medical at prices higher than 16c now is a bet on a very strong improvement in future earnings, strong enough to recover all the EPS lost in dilution and more.  It has to be more or else, Healthway Medical's fair value would stagnate.  I would prefer to be cautious in the midst of too many potentials, especially when mostly positive potentials have been emphasised.

Related post:
Healthway Medical: An updated valuation.

Money management: Is gambling a bad thing?

At first glance, the title of this post seems like a rhetorical question.  After all, the Chinese people have a saying, which literally translated would say "Ten gamble, nine lose." 

Even though the odds are stacked against us, many are attracted by the excitement that gambling offers and the possibility of instant riches.

Personally, I don't have a very strong stand for or against gambling.  However, from the standpoint of money management, anything that might cripple our finances should be avoided. 

At face value, rationally, since the chances of losing money is much higher compared to making it, gambling should be avoided like the plague (or H1N1, in today's context).

A real life story which I remember to this day was a TV interview with Ng Man Tat, a Hong Kong actor.  Before that interview, Ng was churning out movie after movie with Stephen Chow Sing Chi, the Hong Kong king of comedy, for a few years.  It was during that interview that I understood why. 

Ng was addicted to gambling and lost a fortune.  He approached Chow Yun Fatt, a Hong Kong superstar who has gone international, a very good friend, and asked for a loan but was turned down.  Initially, Ng was very angry with Chow but later on he became grateful as he worked hard to pay off his debts. 

Ng said that if Chow had helped him to pay off his debts, he would never learn and be rid of his addiction to gambling.

Many, if not all, of us must have a story or two to tell about the misfortune that gambling has brought to people we know directly or indirectly. 

However, we have also heard stories of people getting really rich through gambling, haven't we?  I remember reading in the papers how, over the years, in some months, the Singapore Sweep's top prize (which is S$2.2m today) was won by foreign workers who went back to their home country, bought land, became landlords, got married and lived happily ever after. 

OK, the last bit is just my imagination.

So, what am I trying to say? 

Well, I don't think gambling is totally bad.  It is not one of those things which is clear cut like a hit and run (which is what Dr Silviu Ionescu, the Romanian diplomat, is suspected of doing here in Singapore), rape, robbery or murder.  These are just plain evil. 

Gambling is more of a grey area.

From a money management standpoint once more, if we budget a small sum of money for entertainment and classify gambling as one form of entertainment, as long as we stay within what is budgeted, gambling would not become financially crippling and it might even be rewarding. 

The Chinese people have a saying, "mai ge xi wang", or "buying a hope".  This, I feel, is not a bad thing. 

If you are a regular reader of my blog, you could probably tell that I'm a pragmatist, not an idealist.  Everyone has his or her own beliefs and values.  Gambling is one of those issues that will always attract strong opinions.  That is why I thought about it for a long time before deciding to blog about it. 

I hope I won't be flamed for my ideas. -.-"

Interesting article:
http://sg.news.yahoo.com/cna/20100302/tap-130-casino-games-prove-popular-shops-231650b.html

China Hongxing: Another S-chip bites the dust.

Flipping through the latest issue of The EDGE, I found a full page write up on China Hongxing.  It is rather negative with a title like "China Hongxing unveils plan for cash pile, but analysts fear it is coming too late".

"China Hongxing's fast growing cash pile has been a source of consternation for investors for more than a year.  Some were irked by the company's apparent refusal to invest the money or return it to investors... Some were even concerned whether it actually had the cash reflected in its accounts."

Analysts are downgrading the prospects of the company en masse despite the company reporting a net cash position of 22c per share.  The share price closed at 14c on 5 March.  CIMB-GK and Kim Eng Securities even ceased coverage of the company altogether.

I decided to take a look at China Hongxing's charts.  Looking at the MACD, it is in negative territory, pulling away downwards from the signal line. The MFI has dipped into the oversold region and formed a lower high, signalling negative buying momentum. 

I have drawn the downtrend channel for China Hongxing in light green. 14c is currently at the channel support.  However, if this breaks, the next support is at 12c and a stronger one is at 10c.  Any upmove from 14c is likely to be just a rebound from oversold conditions and would meet with resistance at 16c, thereabouts, which is provided by the descending 20dMA.  If, in the unlikely event that the 20dMA is taken out, very strong resistance is provided by a confluence of the 50d, 100d and 200d MAs, which are at 19c, thereabouts.