GLP: A falling dagger?

As the Post Chinese New Year Sale continued in the stock markets, some stocks I have never been interested popped up on my radar screen. Capitaland is one such stock. Another one is GLP as some I know dipped into their funds and bought as its price plunged in the last session.

A friend sent me a SMS to say he bought some at $1.96 (the IPO price) in the morning and it closed at $1.93 for lunch. Then, it went on to touch $1.88 when another friend who was in the queue got his buy order filled. GLP closed at $1.93 in the end.

Is this stock going to rebound or would it decline further? After a huge sell-off, it is reasonable to expect a rebound. Short sellers would want to cover their short positions if the bulls are emboldened to push the price higher for some reason. However, the truth is no one knows what would happen next week.

TA is useful in that it lets us know where are the supports and resistance and we have to plan accordingly. TA simply gives us a glimpse into what could be and there are always two sides to a coin. Of course, sometimes, it is nifty enough to give us probabilities as well but they remain probabilities and never certainties.

What is the chart for GLP saying?

What is obvious is that GLP has been in a worsening downtrend since 1 Nov 2010.  Look at the three orange lines I have drawn and you would realise this. The latest trendline resistance is rather steep and approximates the declining 20dMA. $2.06 thereabouts. Selling at resistance in a downtrend is a sound strategy.

The immediate support is at $1.88. If this were to break in the next session, we won't know where is the next floor although employing Fibo lines could give us a clue. $1.82, anyone? The technicals are weak and so is my heart. I shall abstain.

GLP 3Q net profit likely at US$80m - JPMorgan
Friday, 11 February 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

STI down 1.2%; Kim Eng Securities suggests switching to yield plays. “We are stringent in our selection, picking only stocks with stable businesses and the ability to sustain a good dividend payout,” the house says.  
Friday, 11 February 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

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What's my take on MIT and GLP?

Healthway Medical: A punt at 14c?

Regular readers would know what I think of Healthway Medical's current fundamentals. I am still waiting for their latest results. It should be made available sometime this month. Well, fundamentals aside, could the counter be ripe for another trade?

A dragonfly doji was formed in the last session as price touched a low of 14.5c which is a many times tested support in November last year. It should be a rather strong support but could it break? Why not? However, notice how volume has been declining over time. There is less activity here as time goes by. Most of the sellers have probably sold and we have some stoic long holders now. Look at the OBV and we realise that it is mostly flat. The MFI seems to be forming higher lows which suggests some underlying support.

Looking for clues regarding the longer term trend, I brought up the weekly chart and we see the 100wMA rising and approximating 14c. It is also interesting to see the weekly MFI actually forming a higher high which suggests strengthening demand even as price weakened. The Bollinger bands are narrowing. Could price swing higher or go lower? A punt at 14c? Perhaps.

Related post:
Healthway Medical: To buy or not to buy?