U.S. Senate scuttled emergency legislation!

So many want to have a two party government in Singapore. Personally, I always say that if something is not broken, don't fix it. Seeing how the two parties in the US government are acting, I am thankful Singapore is not on the same boat.

With National Day just round the corner, a week after the 2 August deadline for the US to raise its debt ceiling, I am counting our blessings. We never know we have a good thing until we have lost it. Let's not lose it.

Latest update on the US situation:

In an unforgiving display of partisanship, the Republican-controlled House approved emergency legislation Friday night to avoid an unprecedented government default and Senate Democrats scuttled it less than two hours later in hopes of a better deal.

"We are almost out of time" for a compromise, warned President Barack Obama as U.S. financial markets trembled at the prospect of economic chaos next week. The Dow Jones average fell for a sixth straight session.

Lawmakers in both parties said they were determined to avoid a default, yet there was little evidence of progress -- or even significant negotiations -- on a compromise during a long day of intense political maneuvering...


...Administration officials say that without legislation in place by Tuesday, the Treasury will no longer be able to pay all its bills. The result could inflict significant damage on the economy, they add, causing interest rates to rise and financial markets to sink.

Executives from the country's biggest banks met with U.S. Treasury officials to discuss how debt auctions will be handled if Congress fails to raise the borrowing limit before Tuesday's deadline.

But Carney said the administration did not plan to provide the public with details Friday on how the government will prioritize payments...

Read full article here.

How will a default by the US affect Singapore?

I read an article in the newspapers today and it confirmed my fears that Singapore could once again suffer a severe downturn if the US government does not raise its debt ceiling come 2 August. Many would have to face extreme hardship once more.

Salient points in the article:

1. US banks account for some 15% of domestic lending in Singapore.

2. If US defaults, US banks will withdraw their funds from Singapore.

'Should the US default and a credit crunch happen, it would make the fall of Lehman look like a picnic,' Robert Prior-Wandesforde, Credit Suisse.

I remember what happened when Lehman Brothers collapsed. The stock markets went into tailspins. All the buyers disappeared. Real estate was similarly affected as prices of condominiums here in Singapore declined some 30% in some cases.

I remember at the time, Soleil at Sinaran was newly launched and many buyers actually forfeited their 5% deposits and did not exercise their options to purchase. It was that bad.

My Geology professor once said to us that economists have made a mess of the world and it would be impossible for me to comprehend the mess totally. Thus, it would suffice for me to know what actions to take to position myself for whatever eventuality.

If the debt ceiling should be raised, the party will continue. Inflation could get worse and the stock market could see a new high. What to do? Stay invested.

If the debt ceiling fails to be raised, the party will end. Credit will become hard to come by or at least be more expensive. This affects costs in all its forms and will affect all businesses and individuals. What to do? Divest.

We should take a position that will allow us to benefit if either scenario should come to pass. How do we do this? The simplicity of my answer might just disarm you: be 50% invested.

Good luck.

Read article in The Straits Times here.

Debt ceiling gridlock: Who will get paid?