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I was talking to a friend whose family controls a public listed company in Singapore and he is very optimistic about Singapore, very confident that we will not suffer a recession. Although I reminded him that in the last global financial crisis, only China, India and Indonesia escaped a recession, he remains very optimistic. Is this optimism the norm?
Many think that the housing prices in Singapore are being driven up by foreigners. Numbers released not too long ago shows that foreigners accounted for some 16% of condos sold so far this year. The rest were sold to Singaporeans and PRs. If I remember correctly, PRs accounted for 5% or less of total HDB flats transactions. So, the vast majority of transactions in residential real estate here belong to Singaporeans. Logically, a great number of Singaporeans are doing well.
Indeed, if the recent astronomical COE prices are anything to go by, I would say that people and companies here are doing extremely well. Therefore, a pervasive sense of optimism and even invincibility is not difficult to understand.Personally, I have a blog post not too long ago which questioned whether there would be a double dip recession or whether we would simply see very slow growth. Do I have the answer? If I were to say I do, would you believe me?
Do I know anything for sure? I know that if there should be a prolonged slowdown in the world economy, Singapore will not be spared. I know that if there should be a credit tightening in the world banking system, Singapore will not be spared. Singapore has a very open economy and to think that we will be spared any negative ramifications is simply naive.
In order to stay optimistic about Singapore's economy, we have to be optimistic about the world economy and we have to stay optimistic that there will not be any significant credit tightening in the world banking system. Do you think it is easy to be optimistic about these?
"In July, banks and insurers agreed to contribute to reducing Greece's debt via a 21-percent writedown on their holdings of Greek bonds... But recently there has been growing speculation that Athens needs to reduce the value of its debt by 50 percent -- or perhaps even more -- to make its finances sustainable." Read article here.
This speculation is likely going to be a reality.
"Diplomatic sources said Europe and the IMF would only proceed with a second planned Greek bailout of 109 billion euros if banks accepted losses of "at least 50 percent" on their debt holdings." Read article here.
This is going to be disastrous for European lenders holding Greek debt. How would this affect us in Asia?
In a discussion I had with my father a few weeks ago, I told him that we could see European lenders tightening on credit and recalling funds from Asia where they have a significant presence. Although this could be a welcome development as Asia is sloshing in funds in search of higher returns, resulting in strong inflationary pressure, people and companies who have thus far done well by leveraging on cheap money could suffer.
I am not an economist but some form of credit tightening with the proposed Greek "debt haircut" of 50% is more likely to take place than not. I can only hope that the negative effects will not be as fearsome as some have made them out to be.For any who recently borrowed to the max buying a dream private property or a dream car at record high prices here on our tiny island, I can only hope that the dreams will not become nightmares.
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