REITs with pedigree are safer?

Many have told me that I am playing with fire investing in the REITs that I do and by now, regular readers would know how I would reply to them.

Some who do invest in REITs tell me that they only invest in "blue chip" REITs because these have strong "blue chip" sponsors and more likely to survive a downturn. They would still avoid the REITs I am invested in. I don't have a problem with that.

I just read this in The EDGE:

"Moody’s Investors Service said it has a stable outlook for Singapore Real-Estate Investment Trusts. However, stress tests show CapitaMall Trust, Suntec REIT, Mapletree Logistics Trust, and K-REIT run the most risk of exceeding Moody’s expected leverage parameters in the event of a downward revaluation of properties, the ratings company said in a statement, reported Bloomberg."

Some say just invest in all things blue chips and we should be safe. However, the blue chips card could be played so much that it could turn black. Blue could and some did become blue black.

Oh dear, I just remember that I have vested interest in Suntec REIT and K-REIT too!

Moody’s says stable outlook for Singapore REITs, notes risks
Wednesday, 23 November 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

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Cambridge Industrial Trust: Templeton and acquisition.

In a blog post dated 14 October, I said that Cambridge Industrial Trust is worth another look as I expect its income to bump up in 2012 and 2013 without any need for further fund raising. It is interesting to note that subsequently on 1 November, Templeton became a substantial unitholder. Announcement here.

More recently, the Trust has proposed the acquisition of 3C Toh Guan Road East for S$35.5m. This acquisition to be completed in the first quarter of 2012 is to be part funded by debt and the rest by cash.

The acquisition is expected to bump up annual DPU by 0.24c. If the unit price of CIT were to decline to 46c, we would be looking at a prospective annual distribution yield of 9.92%. That could be attractive enough to increase long exposure to the trust.

Is this increase in DPU sustainable? Everything else remaining equal, it is. This is because it is secured through a three years leaseback agreement to the seller of the said property.

Any potential pitfalls. I do see one which is some 10 years away. This is a 30+30 years leasehold property which saw its land lease commencing in 1991.  So, it is only 10 years away before the land lease has to be renewed. At what price? We will know then. For the next few years, it should be a productive asset.

See announcement here.

Related post:
Cambridge Industrial Trust: Worth another look.

K-REIT: Better buy now?

Unlike the recent rights issue for LMIR, there is little to be gained from selling units in K-REIT and buying the rights. The former so far touched a low of 88c while the latter, a low of 2.4c. 

Buying the rights at 2.4c would mean a total price of 87.4c per unit when they are converted into regular units.

In my blog post of 18 Oct, I said that "given my very small position in K-REIT, I will most probably subscribe to the rights issue. If I were not invested in the first instance, I would not bother buying in now to gain exposure."

By a stroke of luck, any potential investor who took my musings to heart would be happier today.

Why do I say this? Read the relevant blog post here:
K-REIT: 17 for 20 rights issue.

For anyone who wants to invest in K-REIT, buying into K-REIT now at 88c or even 88.5c is a better proposition than buying at 93c, the low of the morning of 18 Oct to be entitled to the rights. That would have worked out to an effective unit price of 93c x 20 + 85c x 17 /37 = 89.32c, post rights.

Of course, buying the rights now at 2.4c or even 2.5c would be an even better proposition as this would mean effective unit prices of 87.4c or 87.5c. However, this option is probably sensible only to people with deeper pockets or people who are with Standard Chartered's brokerage which does not charge a minimum transaction fee.

Not all rights issues are created equal, for sure.