Saizen REIT: Acquisitions to increase DPU.

To me, there are only a few important points to note in the REIT's latest presentation:

1. Management is on an acquisition path as this is probably the only way to increase DPU as it seems difficult to bump up occupancy of existing portfolio. Occupancy: 91.6%.

2. Potential dilution of DPU to the tune of 12% as warrants are exercised (if funds thus obtained are not put to productive use).

3. NAV per unit (adjusted for warrants): 29c

4. Gearing (adjusted for warrants): 21%

5. Interest cover ratio: 5.2x

Assuming that the management is able to put funds from the exercising of warrants to good use and push gearing to 35%, we could see DPU improve some 30+% from current levels (in JPY terms) based on the management's guidance.

Remember that all the numbers here are based on the current exchange rate between the JPY and S$. As I believe that Singapore would continue to lean towards a gradual appreciation of the S$ while Japan favours a weakening of the JPY, future DPU could be negatively affected in S$ terms. So, unless valuation becomes very compelling, I am unlikely to add to my remaining long position in the REIT.

See Saizen REIT's 3Q presentation: here.

Related post:
Saizen REIT: 1H FY2012 DPU  of 0.61c.

NOL: Bleeding badly.

On 2 February, I cut losses on NOL as its share price rebounded believing that "shipping industry will face a chronic situation of oversupply and weakening demand this year and possibly the next."

Blow-out 1Q12 Net loss. Neptune Orient Lines (NOL) reported a 1Q2012 Net Loss of USD 253.6 mil, blowing away our already pessimistic FY2012 (read: full year) net loss estimates of USD 160 mil, not to mention consensus estimates of a FY2012 USD 31 mil loss. We maintain our SELL call on NOL and reduce our Target Price further to SGD 0.85 based on 0.8x forward P/B. The bleak outlook in the shipping industry, coupled with global economic uncertainties will likely push a firm recovery for NOL to 2014. (Source: Kim Eng Research)

Neptune Orient Lines (NOL) reported a net loss of US$254m in 1Q12. Logistic revenue grew 7% YoY to US$394m but was unable to offset the 4% fall in Liner revenue to US$2.0b. Group revenue slipped 3% YoY to US$2.4b. Liner revenue shrank despite a volume gain of 4% YoY because average revenue per 40-foot unit (FEU) came in at 7% lower. Management said NOL’s Efficiency Leadership Programme is on track to achieve US$500m of cost savings in 2012. Freight rates have so far in 2Q12 averaged 33% higher QoQ and current rates should see NOL return to profitability in 2Q12. And with NOL expected to turn profitable, we maintain our fair value estimate of S$1.38/share and BUY rating on NOL. (OCBC Research)

Who do you believe?

Related post:
NOL: Cutting losses on a strong rebound.