Old Chang Kee: Almost 70c a share.

On 30 May, I mentioned that Old Chang Kee's shares at 56c a piece were not expensive and that with a PER of 11.29x, I thought Old Chang Kee fairly valued.

Today, Old Chang Kee's shares hit a high of 69c before closing at 67.5c. It is now 20.5% higher than where it was on 30 May and 160% higher than my entry price.

At 69c, PER is 13.9x. This does not sound cheap to me. However, chatting with someone who is vested in Breadtalk recently led me to wonder if I have been too conservative in my valuation of Old Chang Kee's stock.

Breadtalk's full year EPS in 2012 was 4.263c. At 90c a share, its PER is more than 21x! Even though its EPS improved some 14.8% in 1Q 2013, annualised, we could still be looking at a PER of more than 18x. If we were to compare with Breadtalk, Old Chang Kee seems relatively cheap.

Assuming that Old Chang Kee's EPS stagnates, to reach a PER of 18x, its stock would have to trade at 89c per share. Is that going to happen? Your guess is as good as mine.

Related post:
Old Chang Kee: More free curry puffs on the way.

NeraTel: Is there no telling how high it could go?

The share price of NeraTel broke 65c resistance yesterday and it has been rocketing up since. A friend told me that I have done it again! Honestly, I think Lady Luck's the one who is working hard here. I am just lucky.

Last month, I increased my investment in NeraTel by about 10x, recognising its strong numbers and also its attractive dividend yield. At 60c, a 4c dividend represents a yield of some 6.67% which is pretty decent. Even at 63c, 4c gives us a yield of some 6.35%.

Technically, it is quite easy to see from the chart why I accumulated at 60c to 63c. The counter seemed to be basing in that range.

The new found strength in NeraTel's share price probably has a Myanmar connection. Two of NeraTel's customers, Telenor and Ooredoo, won contracts in Myanmar and have 9 months to commence operations. They will have to open up project tenders soon and NeraTel has a good chance of winning the tenders. OSK DMG has a target price of 79c for the counter.

What is my plan now?

I really have to examine my motivation for investing in NeraTel. When I first bought in at 40.5c, it was primarily for the attractive dividend. Recently, I increased my exposure to the counter with a slightly better understanding of the company, still liking the numbers and the attractive dividend.

Even if its share price should hit 79c, dividend yield is still a reasonably attractive 5.06%.

However, I suspect that Mr. Market is now pushing up the share price of NeraTel based on expectations. So, although I do not think NeraTel's shares are expensive even now, things could get bubbly if this continues. Traders chasing the breakout must do so knowing the risks.

Breaking a many times tested resistance at 69c on the back of high volume is very bullish. However, parabolic movements in prices are usually unsustainable and we could see a pull back as price tries to find support.

69c could be the resistance turned support and, for anyone who is thinking of buying on weakness, that is probably a price to watch out for.

In the meantime, to all fellow NeraTel shareholders, if we would like to divest partially (or fully) to lock in gains, there is certainly nothing wrong with taking profit. However, I would ask that we look once more at our motivations for being vested in the counter to be sure. In any case, congratulations!

Related post:
Which stocks have I been accumulating in June 2013?